Boris Johnson is a weakened prime minister after the recent confidence vote by his party’s MPs. The view among many political analysts and academics is that the 211-148 vote in his favour is too damaging, and he is unlikely to turn things around. Some backbenchers expect him to be replaced by the summer – and lessons from academic research suggest they are right.
For many, Johnson was once a strong leader, at least during the first six months of his leadership. However, my own view of strong leadership is that it goes above and beyond delivering strong electoral results. As Eoin O'Malley and I have argued in our research on leadership, a strong party leader is both in control of the organisation of their party, and can set and articulate the party’s priorities.
According to this definition, Johnson was never a strong leader. He delivered a large electoral victory to the party, but lacked a clear vision and policy message. He has been unable to express the party’s vision and ideology, and to articulate what the Conservative party stands for beyond “get Brexit done”.
