It is sometimes said that the Conservative party is capable of only two emotions: complacency and panic. At the moment, it exists in both conditions simultaneously. Boris Johnson and his shrivelling band of acolytes responded to a double-whammy of byelection defeats with complacent shrugs. Speaking to journalists yesterday, he claimed to be “actively thinking about the third term”. Whatever he’s been inhaling, it’s not reality. The panic is among the many Tory MPs who are now wetting their beds after their party was pulverised in Tiverton and Honiton, previously a blue bastion, and rejected in Wakefield, one of the red wall prizes they took at the last general election. Tories have long been apprehensive about how they could please both their traditional supporters in the south and their newer voters in northern England. As it turns out, they have infuriated both wings of their 2019 electoral coalition.
Labour’s victory in Wakefield is a timely fillip for Sir Keir Starmer that may subdue some of the internal chuntering about the Labour leader’s performance. This time last year, the Tories reckoned their grip on red wall seats was still firm and had evidence to prove it when they inflicted a humiliating defeat on Labour at the Hartlepool byelection. Sir Keir’s leadership went through what one of his friends calls a “near-death experience”. Taking Wakefield secures his position unless Durham police issue him with a fine. The biggest caveat about the result is that the fall in the Tory vote was more than twice as large as the rise in Labour support. This suggests that discontent with the Conservatives was a more powerful factor than enthusiasm for Labour. That ought to prod Sir Keir to start communicating his ambitions for Britain with more confidence and boldness.
