Boris Johnson is due to announce a new energy strategy for the UK on Thursday in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the rising cost of domestic energy bills.
The Prime Minister has been talking to the nuclear industry, the renewables sector and the North Sea oil and gas companies as he gears up for the launch.
But the strategy is hamstrung between pitting old forms of carbon energy production like oil and gas against climate change targets and has met opposition from the UK Treasury to the massive spending required to develop new nuclear power plants.
There are also political sensitivities, with a large number of Tory MPs opposed to further onshore windfarms.
Add to that the Scottish Government’s opposition to new nuclear in this country and the divide between Green and SNP Ministers at Holyrood on North Sea oil and the picture becomes ever more complicated.
The Scottish Government has delayed publication of its plan to help Scotland shift away from North Sea oil and gas until the UK strategy has been set out but here is some of what we can expect:
Nuclear
Boris Johnson loves big building projects and he has previously said he would like to see 25 per cent of the UK’s energy come from nuclear by 2050.
There are two problems, time and money.
The Treasury has massive worries about the cost of nuclear and most of the existing reactors are due to cease operating before 2030,
Funding the construction of new plants is complicated and expensive and one of the reasons the new energy strategy has been delayed.
The Scottish government is opposed to new nuclear plants and has planning control to stop them. But Edinburgh has been urged to rethink its opposition to nuclear power in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Hunterston B plant in North Ayrshire has shut down while the station at Torness in East Lothian is due to close in 2028, two years earlier than originally planned.
Sturgeon’s stance is that it would take years for new nuclear power to come on stream and the SNP,like their Green partners in government, are opposed.
New smaller reactors are being developed which could be cheaper to build and trade unions, backed by Scottish Labour, want to see them go ahead.
Overall, no change for Scotland.
Oil and Gas
The European reliance on Russian oil and gas was spelled out by the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell: He said: “We have given Ukraine 1 billion euros... but a billion euros is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he provides us.”
Britain is less reliant on Russian gas, we import only four per cent, but the UK government wants to increase production to offset that European dependence on Putin.
Expect the Energy Strategy to be followed by licences for six new oil and gas projects despite critics warning any new projects will take years to come to fruition.
Siccar Point Energy and Shell have been granted a two-year extension to the licences for the controversial Cambo oil field which has become a touchstone for environmental opposition to more drilling.
In a recent speech, the UN Secretary General warned that short term measures to replace Russian fossil fuels “might create long-term fossil fuel dependence” and jeopardise climate change targets.
Remember also that analysis for the Tony Blair Institute highlighted that the short-term increase in the UK’s oil production might improve self-sufficiency but is unlikely to affect the price of your electricity or gas bill.
Verdict: another mini-boom for the North Sea production.
Wind power
Scotland already has a fair amount of onshore windfarms and big plans for offshore wind barrages to create 13GW of new offshore wind in Scottish waters by 2030, including a plan to build a 300-turbine scheme in the North Sea that will be the UK’s largest.
The Scottish Government has been accused of selling off lucrative seabed plots “for a pittance” after the announcement of 17 new offshore wind projects along the coastline which will bring in £700 million in rentals.
In England Johnson has a problem with onshore wind, hundreds of Tory MPs are against having windfarms in their backyard, so wants to see a dash for renewables in the Irish Sea. Typically, for Johnson, this is ambitious and unpractical given the depth of water.
Scotland’s coastline is likely to be the lead for giant offshore windfarms with oil companies including BP and Shell, and renewable energy veterans Scottish Power and SSE given seabed leases where they plan to build enough windfarms to power the equivalent of 23 million UK homes a year.
Bringing all that windpower onto the grid is another matter.
If Johnson really wants an infrastructure legacy to match the post-war Hydro dams he could fund the massive interconnecters to bring power from the sea via Scotland’s islands to the south with the miles of cables having the Johnsonian benefits of “lashing” the Union together.
Verdict: Expect wind to provide a quarter of power needs and for banks of turbines to sprout on land and sea.
Solar, fracking and hydro
Solar power is also expected to be part of the strategy and as with windfarms incentives like five years discount from council tax are being considered for people who would live next to the large panel farms.
Fracking , extracting shale gas from underground by forcing sand and water into fissures is back on the agenda too. The government has asked for the latest advice from the British Geological Survey but the practice is so controversial -fracking was halted in the UK in 2019 amid opposition from green groups and concerns over earth tremors - that it is an unlikely solution.
One piece of old and reliable green tech being considered is hydro power. Expect schemes like the SSE proposal for the Coire Glas pumped hydro storage for Loch Lochy to be looked on favourably.
The scheme, with a potential capacity of up to 1500MW, is the first large-scale pumped storage scheme to be developed in the UK for more than 30 years and would more than double the UK’s existing electricity storage capacity.
Overall - anything and everything will be tried to produce more power while keeping within climate change targets.
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