There’s been speculation that, like his hero Winston Churchill, Johnson may one day return from the wilderness. He compared himself to Cincinnatus, the virtuous Roman consul who returned to his plough, but may eye a return. Even if Johnson never leads his party again, and though he promised to fully support the new government, few doubt that he will cast a long shadow from the sidelines. That has made his legacy contested territory. How that historic, often tumultuous time in office is viewed also defines the Tory party, and conservatism.
To his followers, he is the saviour who delivered Brexit and the Houdini who conjured up a whole new electoral coalition from swathes of the country that had voted Labour for 70 years. To his detractors, he was the reckless driver who crashed out of the EU. His supporters may rue the messy personal life, the chaotic way of working, the propensity to say whatever is convenient. But they see in him a unique political mind—charismatic, competitive, creative— and a politician who could be capable of a comeback or at least of have a say in the party’s future. They argue that he got the big things right, but let a pile-up of mistakes, including tax hikes, throw him off course.
The polls, however, suggest the broader public have come to a different conclusion. To most Brits, he’s been a let-down. Only 22% of Brits in the latest YouGov poll think he was either great or good; 55% think he was poor or terrible. That’s a long way from where he started. Johnson got early credit for completing Britain’s departure from the EU and was rewarded with a huge majority in the 2019 elections. He reshaped the conservative voter base by speaking to the frustrations of working-class people who were tired of stagnating wages, just as Donald Trump reshaped the US Republican Party.
But he wasted no time in spending that credit. Sweeping pledges were followed by drama, the distraction of various scandals and problems with implementing policy. Serious issues, from a creaking National Health Service and unfunded social care to policing problems and public-sector strikes, festered without serious engagement.
Brexit, and its politics, represent such a historic pivot that it must be at the centre of Johnson’s legacy. The early impact has been mostly one of added costs and frictions. Relations with Europe are at a low point. Those who argue that Brexit will provide long-term opportunities say wait for it. Their hopes are placed partly in the bonfire of regulations that Liz Truss has promised in order to unleash growth and innovation.
In other areas, there was some vision to note. The policy paper published in February was a serious effort to redress the underlying causes of disparities in income and opportunity. But like Johnson’s pledge to redress the covid gap in education or his net-zero pledge, his levelling up promises were never given the resources needed. Where he did deliver was for Ukraine. Johnson’s grasp of the stakes in Ukraine’s self-defence and his all-in support for Kyiv revealed a keen sense of the geopolitical moment. This is a legacy positive.
One wild card is the pending House of Commons privilege panel probe of whether he misled parliament over Partygate. A vote on the findings will thrust his future and legacy into the spotlight again. Last week, the UK government released legal advice by David Pannick, a barrister, arguing that the committee’s review is flawed and would “paralyze democracy." The pressure is on Tories to go easy. Still, the government’s clumsy attempt to override the privilege committee’s sanction on the former MP Owen Paterson ended in his resignation and an embarrassment for Johnson.
As he puts together a new life, Johnson is unlikely to make much noise other than to support the new leader. But I wouldn’t wager that he stays quiet for long. For one thing, he’s nurturing a grievance. Johnson has been clear he thinks he was thrown under the bus. And he’s always found an audience impossible to resist. He will find it easy to send out bat signals to his substantial follower base. Every speech and newspaper column will be parsed by the media; a witty well-aimed line could be devastating for a particular Truss policy, or might prove powerful in an election.
In the meantime, the Tories will keep debating Johnson’s legacy, some hoping to use it to bury him and others to resurrect a stronger version from the ashes of failure. Liz Truss rode to power on his coattails, but will be nervously looking over her shoulder at what he does next. ©bloomberg
Therese Raphael is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion covering health care and British politics.
