Prime Minister Boris Johnson is once again facing pressure to step down after a series of damning resignations in protest at his leadership, including two members of his own cabinet.
Now former-Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, said in his resignation letter: “The public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously. I recognise this may be my last ministerial job, but I believe these standards are worth fighting for and that is why I am resigning.”
Sajid Javid, who resigned as Health Secretary, stated: “The tone you set as leader, and the values you represent, reflect on your colleagues, your party, and ultimately the country. Conservatives at their best are seen as hard-headed decision-makers, guided by strong values. We may not always have been popular, but we have been competent in acting in the national interest. Sadly, in the current circumstances, the public are concluding that we are neither.”
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At the time of writing, fourteen other government ministers have also stepped down, with many more resignations possible. Traditionally, such a huge political blow (which has come amid myriad other controversies for the PM and recent by-election losses) would have probably been the end of the current Prime Minister.
Despite this, Boris Johnson has made it clear he plans to cling to power, and there are very few circumstances where a Prime Minister can be removed from office against their will. The House of Commons could theoretically pass a motion of no confidence in the government, which would typically cause the resignation of all government ministers, followed by a general election.
However, it is typically a motion of no confidence, passed from within the governing political party, that proves politically fatal for a Prime Minister.
Despite already surviving a vote of no confidence, the current pressure on the Prime Minister has many people taking a closer look at the no-confidence rules within the Conservative party for clues to what might happen next.
What is a vote of no confidence and how are they triggered?
A vote of no confidence is designed to test the confidence of party MPs in the current leadership.
The specific written rules for a vote of no confidence within the Conservative Party are not publicly available. However, it is understood that if a threshold of the currently in-post Members of Parliament submits a letter to the Chairmen of the 1922 committee expressing no confidence in the party leader, a vote of confidence will then be organised.
The Commons Library states : “A vote of no confidence in a sitting leader must be held if 15% of Conservative MPs write to the chairman of the 1922 Committee saying they no longer have confidence in the leader. The current 15% threshold is 54 MPs. MPs may withdraw letters at any time.”
If the vote of confidence is won, the party leader remains in place and cannot be challenged for another year. An election for new party leadership is organised if the vote is lost.
Could Boris Johnson face a second vote of no confidence?
Boris Johnson narrowly survived a vote of no confidence back in early June, despite seeing 148 of his own MPs vote against him. Technically, this would make him safe from another challenge until next year.
However, there are still several circumstances under which Boris Johnson could be forced from office. The 1922 committee (representing the backbench MPs in the Tory party) could elect to change the rules around no-confidence votes to allow another one.
The make up of the 1922 Committee is set to change this month as members are elected, increasing the likelihood that a newly-formed committee could change the rules. Chris Loder Tory MP for West Dorset told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We know that there are forthcoming elections to the 1922 Committee executive.
"Of course, it is within the gift of the executive to make amendments to those rules should they so wish, and we are at a point of democracy within the Conservative Party itself to actually return an executive reflective of the views of the back benches.
That said, what is probably more likely to occur is that Sir Graham Brady (the chairman of the 1922 committee) would go to see the Prime Minister to inform him he no longer commands the support of the party and threaten him with a rule change if he did not resign.
While it is an unlikely result, Conservative MPs could also threaten to vote with the opposition in a motion of no confidence in the government, triggering a general election if passed. In an even more unlikely scenario (and one that hasn't happened in living memory) the monarch also technically has the power to dismiss a Prime Minister.
