BORIS Johnson could accept a Section 30 order and agree to a second independence referendum, Aberdeen Independence Movement (AIM) has said.
Writing in The National, AIM’s co-organiser Alan Petrie warned the Tories that rejecting indyref2 may come back to bite them.
Petrie said allowing an indyref to take place could buy Prime Minister some time as pressure to resign mounts.
If he rejects a Section 30 order however, he would face an uphill challenge to stop a Yes vote being held, Petrie added.
He said: “The decision is not as straightforward as many think and every choice it makes will have political consequences. The decision to accept or reject both come with their own pros and cons.
“The significant advantage of rejecting is a shortlived one – it would play well with the Conservative Party’s more Unionist voters but we are not due to go to the polls again until 2024. After the dust settles, the question for the UK Government would be what now if the Scottish Government sticks with the plan to hold a referendum anyway?”
Petrie said the UK Government could challenge the Scottish Government in court, but warned that could have dire consequences for the No side.
He said it would likely be a “disastrous move that would destroy any pretence of this being a union of free choice based on democracy.”
He went on: “This would be an utterly destructive move, an attempt to save the Union that would instead absolutely torch it.”
The AIM organiser also challenged the idea that boycotting a future indyref could be a silver bullet for Unionists.
“For a boycott to work,” he said. “It would need a united coalition of the three Unionist parties, the unions, the media and civic Scotland behind it. That is not likely to happen today. The media and the Conservatives would likely back it, but what about the others?”
He continued: “A boycott would be a Tory media-led campaign, so would likely be an out-of-touch failure.
“With only the most hardcore Unionist voters staying at home, a Yes vote would be a certainty.
“The Unionists would likely hope that turnout was low enough to render the whole vote pointless, but that’s a hugely risky strategy.
“Even if it worked, the vote would still undermine the Union, likely being the case that delaying independence would only make it all the more inevitable.”
To read Alan Petrie's column in full, click here.
