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BOM forecasts severe thunderstorms as another round of rain heads for already flooded east

A stormy system is set to bring yet another round of wet weather to the already flooded east. So what's it going to be like near you and when will the rain and floods end?  

As we have seen time and time again recently, a system is developing over central Australia on Monday and picking up moisture as it tracks east to bring heavy rain to the east and south-east later this week. 

But this time around, Dean Narramore, senior meteorologist at the bureau, has warned of severe thunderstorms. 

"Which is obviously not great news for our many flood-affected residents and communities across Victoria, New South Wales and southern, inland Queensland." 

This system's convective, stormy nature means that it will be more hit and miss. 

But its prolonged presence means that it is still expected to deliver widespread heavy falls. 

"By the end of the week, we could see much of eastern and south-eastern Australia having at least 25 to 50 millimetres with isolated falls of up to 100mm possible, particularly where some of these heavier thunderstorms occur," he said.

"Some days you could have large areas of severe thunderstorms, pretty much from eastern Queensland, all the way through New South Wales and possibly some days down into Victoria as well."

What is expected for you? 

Western Australia

Eastern WA is seeing some stormy action on Monday but that will be pretty much it as far as the wild weather is concerned. 

"Over the next seven days is going to be pretty much dry, hot and sunny across much of WA.

"We may see a few showers around the south coast and around the Perth area. But generally pretty dry conditions continuing for much of WA this week," he said. 

Northern Territory and the tropics

The wet and stormy conditions are extending it to the Northern Territory and northern South Australia on Monday.

"There's some pretty gusty winds with that as well for some of our inland areas and we could see a couple of severe thunderstorms," he said,  

The heavy falls should have cleared the southern NT by Wednesday. 

Meanwhile, the tropics continue to be tropical. 

"We will also see the daily showers and thunderstorms continuing across the Top End and also Cape York as well this week," according to Mr Narramore.  

South Australia 

The heaviest of the falls are expected to stay in the north of the state, with widespread rain and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

But there is a chance the Riverland will scrape into the rain zone, with possible heavy falls on the forecast for Renmark on Wednesday and showers expected on Thursday. 

Queensland and New South Wales 

On Wednesday, the low pressure system is expected to deepen and bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Queensland as it moves further east. 

Eastern Queensland largely missed out on the last few rounds of rain but that is about to end.

By Thursday the rain and storms will have reached eastern Queensland, extending well up the coast. 

We are now firmly in the October to December peak-storm-season. 

"One of the big things is this week is going to be a lot of thunderstorms and especially severe thunderstorms as well," said Mr Narramore. 

"We could see multiple days of severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall impacting communities right up and down the east coast, particularly through Thursday and Friday.

"It's kind of a pick up of our storm season, particularly through parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales."

NSW and the ACT 

New South Wales will start to see rain from Wednesday,  with the heaviest falls initially expected to the north and west of the state.

The rain and storms will push into the east on Thursday and hang around up and down the east coast on Friday. 

The heaviest falls are likely to be around the Queensland/NSW border. 

Victoria 

"For the flooded-affected areas, the big weather days look to be Wednesday and Thursday in New South Wales and more so Thursday and Friday through Victoria and Tasmania," Mr Narramore said. 

The tropical rain is expected to start impacting northern Victoria Wednesday night and into Thursday.

The rain and storms should mainly impact the north of the state through to Friday, but over the weekend and into next week heavy rain is expected to return for the rest of the state. 

All of which is obviously not good news for the ongoing flooding in Victoria. 

"Unfortunately, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, we have a long way to go in terms of flooding and it's too hard to say this stage when it will finally end." 

Tasmania

"Thankfully, the dry weather will continue right through until at least Thursday, with the rainfall not impacting them until Friday," according to Mr Narramore. 

"So giving the ground a little bit more time to dry out, but still nowhere near enough," he said. 

Rain, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase on Friday and Saturday. 

Like on the mainland, the rain is expected to be hit and miss. 

"But by the time we get to Sunday we could probably see cumulated totals of around 25 to 40mm, with isolated higher falls across the north and west." 

When is the rain going to end? 

Unfortunately it looks like the wet weather will remain all the way into next week. 

Mr Narramore said there might be a bit of a reprieve Friday into Saturday "with just some hit and miss showers and storms". But it is not looking like much of a break. 

"The weather models and our guidance continue to show another system pretty much hot on the heels of this system."

It is forecast to bring another burst of rain and thunderstorms across much of eastern and south-eastern Australia on Sunday and Monday.

"So unfortunately, the very wet pattern is likely to continue for at least the next seven to 10 days," he said. 

When is the flooding going to end? 

Not any time soon. 

As surely everyone is very aware by now, it is very wet out there. 

"It's the message we continually hear at the moment, but it means that anytime it rains now we see renewed river level rises on many of our rivers, creeks and streams." 

The rainfall later in the week and into the weekend could lead to renewed river level rises across many of these rivers.

"That means we could see riverine flooding continue on many of our rivers, creeks and streams, and then additional rainfall likely to lead to renewed river level rise," according to Mr Narramore. 

"So for many, you could be in a prolonged period of flooding in the coming days and weeks." 

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