Is this the one contest Labour is set to lose on election night – not to an imploded Conservative party, but rather to the Greens? It would be easy, but ultimately facile, to write off Bristol Central as an outlier. It is a trendy, bohemian enclave of the south-west, where locals once rioted over the opening of a new Tesco, and which polling suggests is the most pro-migrant constituency in Britain.
And there are certainly ingredients here that are particularly favourable to a left-of-Labour message: estimates from 2021 suggested most residents are under 35, about half are private renters and about a quarter are born in another country. But with research suggesting that millennials are the first generation not to move rightwards with age, the number of private renters in England and Wales doubling this century, and Britain becoming ever more diverse, Bristol Central could simply be a window to the near future.
