EAST LANSING, Mich. — Michigan State is 2-0 and ranked 11th and by most statistical measures, looks legit. Transfer running backs Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard look legit. Transfer defensive end Jacoby Windmon looks legitimately legit.
But like many teams this time of year, it’s hard to tell what’s real when beating up on lesser foes. It’s also hard to decipher what Mel Tucker truly knows about his team. He wasn’t overly pleased after blowouts against Western Michigan and Akron, and warned the Spartans to “avoid being seduced by success.” I assume that also means to avoid being deluded by success.
“We’re building the story of this year’s team right now,” Tucker said Monday. “Last year’s team is gone. This is a new team, a new season.”
True enough and fair enough. Last year’s 11-2 team is gone, along with Kenneth Walker III. And this year’s first big-time test has arrived, a trip to Seattle to face 2-0 Washington.
This should be a much more even, much more revealing matchup. MSU is a three-point underdog, which sounds about right. But the Huskies are in a similar spot, seeking legitimacy after rolling outmanned Kent State and Portland State.
Someone’s going to find out something about themselves, and the decisive test will be at quarterback. Payton Thorne has looked inexplicably shaky, and expressed frustration with his performance. After a record-setting season, he’s completing only 57.7% of his passes, with four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Real stars stand up
But just as Tucker doesn’t want to be seduced by success, he doesn’t want to be fooled by early flaws. And he doesn’t want to put more pressure on his quarterback.
“What is my level of concern?” Tucker said when asked about Thorne. “I’m not concerned.”
I’m guessing his level of concern is directed at the other quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., a familiar name who transferred to Washington after playing parts of four seasons at Indiana. MSU fans will remember he put a fright in the Spartans in a 40-31 loss in 2019. He suffered two major knee injuries and doesn’t run much now, but is completing 69.7% of his passes for 682 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. In his fifth college year, he won the starting job, which surprised some, and has looked electric at times.
“We were very confident about what we could be with him at quarterback,” new Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer said. “He’s not going to be in awe. So you’re comforted, having one of your team leaders and your quarterback in particular being a guy that has played in big games and understands the color of jersey that’s across from him. It’s nothing new to him.”
It's not that new for DeBoer either, who was Indiana’s offensive coordinator in 2019 when Penix was at his dynamic best. DeBoer inherited a Washington program that went 4-8 last season and fired head coach Jimmy Lake. Penix’s history of production under DeBoer suggests his comeback is real. Thorne’s history of production suggests his struggles won’t continue.
But Thorne’s favorite target, Jayden Reed, has been slowed so far. He has eight catches for 107 yards and no touchdowns, and suffered some sort of injury to an unspecified body part. Hip? Back? Tucker remained as evasive as Reed is on the field, saying, “He’ll be ready when he’s ready.”
The Spartans need their star receiver because the Huskies have the weapons to keep up. In their opening 45-20 victory over Kent State, they scored on their first six possessions. In their 52-6 victory against Portland State, they scored on their first four possessions and finished with 617 yards of total offense. It was Kent State and Portland State, I know. It was WMU and Akron for MSU, I know. That’s why we don’t really know what we think we know about these teams.
The Huskies have dangerous receivers in Rome Odunze (who has been injured), Jalen McMillan and Giles Jackson, a Michigan transfer. That shouldn’t be as frightening to the Spartans as it would’ve been last season, when they were last in the nation in pass defense. But again, as someone has duly noted, last year is gone.
'We're gonna find out more'
The Spartans’ defense is faster and more athletic with another influx of transfers. Windmon arrived from UNLV and has been an absolute revelation, winning back-to-back Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors. He has 5½ sacks and four forced fumbles, leading the nation in both categories. But the Spartans were staggered initially last week by the Zips, who outgained them 138-93 in the first quarter. They’ve been vulnerable at times against the run, and had trouble corralling Akron quarterback DJ Irons.
Penix doesn’t appear as mobile as he was before the injuries — four rushes in two games — but the lefty can fling it. He threw for 286 yards when the Hoosiers pushed the Spartans in 2019. He’s a different quarterback now, probably slower and wiser. MSU is different too, more aggressive, more attacking. At his weekly press conference, Tucker wore a black T-shirt with green lettering that said, “All About the Ball,” hammering his emphasis on forcing turnovers.
“It’s the ball, the ball, the ball,” Tucker said. “When you don’t take the ball away, you’re not playing great defense.”
Turnovers can cover for weaknesses, and the Spartans have six fumble recoveries and 12 sacks in two games. Can they sustain that prolific pace against a better opponent? Do they have the discipline to handle a long trip to hostile Husky Stadium? Can they continue to withstand the absence of defensive starters Darius Snow and Xavier Henderson? Ah, more things we’ll have to see.
“You learn a little about your guys every single day,” Tucker said. “You see how the team responds to adversity and how it handles success. I’m encouraged by what I see so far, but right now, we have one game, that’s our focus. Washington is a very good football team, they’ve had top-25 recruiting classes the last four or five years so they have really good players. … That’s a tough place to play. We’re gonna find out more about our team on Saturday.”
It’s certainly a winnable game. Incredibly, the Huskies haven’t defeated a ranked Power Five opponent at home since 2001, when they beat No. 11 Michigan, 23-18. Last year at this time, the Spartans faced similar unknowns and responded spectacularly, smothering Miami, 38-17, in the Florida heat.
It’s also a losable game. Big Ten teams tend to get a little rattled on the West Coast, even if the Pac-12 has been depleted. This showdown won’t define MSU’s season. But it will indeed start the story, one way or another.
