ANN ARBOR, Mich. — This is life on the bubble, bouncing between earning a bid and squandering one. For the Wolverines, it’s also life in the bubble, playing huge games every other day, playing without their head coach, without much room to breathe.
Competing hard is one thing, and Michigan generally doesn’t have a problem with that. But to hang with the best in the mighty Big Ten, it takes perhaps more than the Wolverines can handle. The pattern hasn’t changed — win, loss, win, loss, win, loss — and on Sunday they alternated sloppy play with sharp play and ended up back where they started.
Michigan’s 93-85 loss to Illinois shoves them right back to the edge, with three regular-season games remaining. At 15-12 (9-8 Big Ten), the Wolverines presumably need to win two of three — home against Michigan State and Iowa, at Ohio State — to have a reasonable shot at an NCAA Tournament bid, regardless of what happens in the Big Ten tourney. Obviously, the next one is the biggest one, Tuesday night against the Spartans (19-9, 10-7), who could deal their rival a staggering blow.
This crazy Big Ten season has been all about getting back up, and the Wolverines did in the second half. Once trailing by 15, they cut it to 82-80 with 2:02 remaining on a 3-pointer by freshman Caleb Houstan. DeVante’ Jones was taking over, scoring 16 of his 25 in the second half in the best game of his young Michigan career, and the Crisler Center crowd finally was roaring to life.
But then Illinois (20-8, 13-5) did what it does so well, throwing it inside to 7-footer Kofi Cockburn and popping away from the outside, and it was 89-80 in a flash. That’s how quickly things can change, and how quickly Michigan needs to change them back. Phil Martelli — in his second game for the suspended Juwan Howard — lamented the Wolverines’ defense, and it has been a season-long issue. In the top half of the Big Ten, margins are narrow, and sometimes it only takes a couple superior efforts to determine the outcome.
Big man, big trouble
Cockburn was superior, pounding inside for 27 points on 11-of-15 shooting. Michigan 7-footer Hunter Dickinson struggled, although he didn’t get much help from his guards, who let Illinois’ sharp-shooting Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier operate as they wished. Plummer was scorching, hitting 6 of 9 from 3-point range, as Illinois went 10-for-17 on 3s.
Strategic mistake to double-team Cockburn early? Well, not necessarily, if Michigan’s Jones, Houstan and Eli Brooks had been able to get around ball screens quicker. After an adjustment, Michigan stymied the outside shooting and got back in the game, but left the low post open and Cockburn scored 19 in the second half.
“He’s just such a force, he makes the court smaller,” Martelli said of Cockburn. “If we go back and look at people dribbling past us, blow-bys, that had as much of a negative impact on us as throwing the ball inside. We are what we are on the interior. We don’t have great rim presence.”
It was Frazier’s 3-pointer with 45 seconds left that clinched it, just when Michigan seemed to have him under control. Picking a defensive poison hasn’t been easy for these Wolverines, and they’d better be in a defensive mode this upcoming week.
With Moussa Diabate back after a one-game suspension from the handshake-line fracas at Wisconsin, and if Jones and Houstan can shoot this effectively — a combined 14-for-24 against the Illini — the Wolverines have a chance against anybody in the Big Ten, although sometimes it’s only a 50-50 chance. They’ve alternated wins and losses in their last six games and haven’t won two in a row since Feb. 10.
“This season has been like a whirlwind for all of us, hasn’t been the greatest season,” said Jones, the transfer from Coastal Carolina who has steadily improved. “It’s all about adapting to the different environment. We obviously miss the head coach, miss him a lot, but we feel his spirit out there and we keep trying to get these wins for him. We don’t want no excuses. Coach Phil and the staff are doing a terrific job.”
'Sense of urgency'
No excuses offered, none accepted. The only promise should be for the Wolverines to play with the same energy the Spartans showed in their 83-67 victory Jan. 29.
“We definitely feel a sense of urgency,” Jones said. “In East Lansing we didn’t show how we’re supposed to play, especially myself. I feel like this is a revenge game for us. … (In the next three games) I see an opportunity for us to shock the world. We know a lot of people feel like it’s gonna be a tough stretch and they don’t see us winning.”
I think it’s impossible for any team to shock the college basketball world this season, with all its historic twists. The top six teams in the AP poll lost Saturday, including No. 4 Purdue, beaten in the final second by Michigan State.
In the Big Ten, teams take turns knocking each other down, then helping each other up. Michigan State’s win over Purdue greatly improved its NCAA odds, just as Michigan’s pounding of Purdue three weeks ago did. Now the Wolverines can benefit from the Spartans’ enhanced credentials if they win Tuesday night.
This is the reality of life in the Big Ten, where it’s hard to sustain anything because everything is a challenge. Ohio State won at Illinois three nights ago, then lost at Maryland on Sunday. Eight Big Ten teams have between four and eight conference losses, and all could make the Tournament. Wisconsin (14-4) leads at the moment by a game over Purdue and Illinois.
Practically every team is either on the bubble or in the bubble most nights. Before Sunday’s game, Michigan was pegged as a 11 or 12 seed, one of the last in the field. That could change dramatically, either way, in the next six days.
“For these young guys — Sunday afternoon, national TV against a nationally ranked team — I hope they treasure that,” Martelli said. “When you compete at this level, you play to a point of exhaustion. … We just weren’t good enough. We trailed for 40 minutes, and defensively we always seemed to be chasing.”
It has seemed that way much of the season, and the chase is nearing an end. If the Wolverines want to catch a bid, or catch a break, they’re running dangerously low on chances.
