Michigan is down and desperate. Michigan State is dangerous and defiant.
From opposite ends of the spectrum they arrive in Chicago for the Big Ten tournament, and if it’s anything like the regular season, every game will be decided by fewer than five points or in overtime. In a season of narrow margins, the margins get even slimmer.
The Wolverines (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten) and Spartans (19-11, 11-8) aren’t far apart record-wise, but that doesn’t mean much now. The Spartans are safely in the NCAA Tournament, probably a 7 or 8 seed, but could rise with a run. The Wolverines are out right now, but a win over Rutgers on Thursday gives them a chance. If they can follow with a win over Purdue on Friday, they’re in.
This is when seasons are defined and expectations are refined. As many as 10 Big Ten teams are projected to make the 68-team field, which is wildly misleading. It’s not that the conference is powerful — only Purdue and Indiana are ranked — it’s that so many are bunched together, they’re hard to separate.
No better examples than UM and MSU. Juwan Howard and his team have a chance to redeem themselves, and it’s not a complete longshot. The Wolverines dropped two overtime games on the road against Illinois and Indiana last week, and had last possessions to win each. They’re young and it shows, with fourth-year starter Hunter Dickinson surrounded by four first-time starters, including freshmen Jett Howard and Dug McDaniel.
That partly explains why the Wolverines falter late in games. But it’s also on Howard, whose responsibility is to define roles and build confidence. Too many times Michigan seems unsure what to do as the clock ticks down. Kobe Bufkin’s desperate pass — instead of a desperate shot — against Indiana revealed the issue in real time. Dickinson often carries the team with 18.2 points per game and a team-best 42.3% on 3s, but in crunch-time heat, it’s up to the guards to create.
McDaniel has improved dramatically. So has Bufkin. When senior transfer Jaelin Llewellyn was lost after eight games with a knee injury, Michigan was left with the youngest lineup in the league, as freshman Tarris Reed Jr. also stepped into an expanded role.
If Michigan doesn’t make the NCAA field for the first time in seven seasons, it’s a major blow, and it’s fair to question Howard. But it’s ridiculous to suggest his program has hit an unscalable wall. In his two Tournaments at Michigan (2020 was canceled due to COVID), he reached the Elite Eight and the Sweet 16.
For sporadic stretches this season, the Wolverines look like one of the top teams in the Big Ten. In closing stretches, they look confused and tentative. They’re 2-8 in conference games decided by six points or less or in overtime, and dropped three OT road games — Indiana, Illinois, Iowa — after having semi-comfortable leads.
“This is a group that’s clawing, scrapping, giving all they can, and will continue doing that no matter what,” Howard said Tuesday. “They’ll continue competing to the end. I’m proud of how our guys have handled this season so far.”
There are some encouraging signs, but not enough. When four starters — Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, Eli Brooks, DeVante' Jones — departed after last season, it was going to be a tricky transition. The question now is, have the Wolverines grown determined through crushing losses, or demoralized? It’s a team stuck between styles, from Dickinson’s low-post dominance to the quick, dynamic guards.
Deep thoughts
The Spartans have faced different obstacles, persevering admirably in the aftermath of the campus shooting tragedy. Once again, Tom Izzo is defying convention. He left three scholarships open, didn’t raid the transfer portal and now has what he craved — a tight, experienced team with just enough pieces, and no room for error.
At times, the Spartans also have looked like one of the best in the Big Ten. If not for their own batch of close losses — by one against Purdue, six against Rutgers, in OT at Iowa — they’d be Big Ten champs. The weirdest development in this weird season is MSU winning by unexpected means. It’s not defense and rebounding, not when Izzo’s main inside presence is undersized Mady Sissoko. It’s stunning offensive accuracy.
After MSU beat Ohio State on senior day, Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann said he thinks this is Izzo’s best shooting team, maybe ever. (Not ever, but it’s up there.) The Spartans lead the Big Ten in 3-point percentage (40.1%) and can hit from anywhere, with virtually anyone.
Joey Hauser is a scorching, team-leading 45.9% on 3s. Three more are right behind him — Jaden Akins (44.4), Tyson Walker (42.9) and Malik Hall (41). Walker has grown tremendously as a shooter and playmaker and is the key to a run, along with backcourt leader A.J. Hoggard.
Izzo laments his team’s defensive lapses because he knows scoring can fluctuate madly. He also knows, in a wide-open Big Ten and a wide-open NCAA field, the Spartans can make a run.
“I don't mind putting that pressure on us,” Izzo said. “Normally, I would downplay it. I do think we are (ready). Read my lips — I don't think we're the best team I've had. I don't think we're great. But I think we're coming into our own.”
The Spartans don’t have to worry about their Big Ten draw as the four seed. They can beat any of the possible opponents — Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State — and can lose to any of them. Although Izzo has won more Big Ten tourneys than anyone else (six), he usually views it as the appetizer to the big show.
Proving ground
The 8th-seeded Wolverines have reason to worry, and their first opponent will test their toughness. Rutgers is the league’s best defensive team, and in the only meeting, Michigan slugged out a 58-45 victory on the road.
In a way, the Wolverines got the ideal draw to prove their worthiness. If they get past Rutgers, they’d face top seed Purdue. If they beat the Boilermakers, they’d almost assuredly be in. Do they have a shot? Well, sure. They lost to Purdue 75-70 in Ann Arbor and had their standard batch of chances.
They’ve had their chance in virtually every Big Ten game, losing only once by double digits, at Penn State. In a super-streaky conference, the Wolverines are the super-streakiest, although Iowa might challenge that. It feels like we watched a full season and still don’t know anybody’s complete identities.
The Spartans gradually are forming theirs, although it can get a bit fuzzy. The Wolverines are struggling to form theirs, and unless they learn how to handle the final four — minutes in a game, not the Final Four — they’ll be a team of unrealized potential. That said, the odds suggest UM could flip the close-game scripts and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. The odd Big Ten parity suggests someone other than Purdue will win it — I’m guessing MSU or Indiana — and anyone other than Minnesota has a chance.
The Spartans and Wolverines, at various times, have shown how good they can be and how frustrating they can be. Now we get to learn who they really are.
