As news of embattled Senator Bob Menendez's planned resignation surfaced following his criminal conviction, observers have started discussing two key ensuing political developments: who will replace him for the remainder of his term and whether Republicans have a chance at flipping the seat he has held since 2006.
Different outlets reported on Tuesday that Menendez plans on stepping down from his post on August 20, and that his resignation letter is expected in the near future. Once he does, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will be able to select a "temporary appointment" to finish the senator's term.
According to the New York Post, there are four people in Murphy's shortlist: Rep. Andy Kim, Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina and the governor's wife, Tammy Murphy.
Kim is currently running to replace Menendez in the November elections after winning the party's primary. He currently leads in the polls, but the outlet said that grudges between him and Tammy Murphy could lead the governor to pass him over.
Tahesha Way, a Democratic insider told the outlet, is "someone (Murphy) is comfortable with and who will understand the role she is being asked to fulfill." "They don't expect her to one, run [for office], and two, do anything that would be not without checking in with the governor's office down in DC," the person added.
Campos-Medina could be an option if Murphy wanted to replace Menendez with another Latino person, the outlet said. She ran in the primary claiming to represent the interests of Blacks and Latinos but ended up getting 16% of the vote.
Tammy Murphy, who also ran in the primary but ultimately dropped out, has also been floated as an option. The governor vowed back in October not to appoint her if Menendez resigned, but the Post cited a GOP strategist who said she had ended up successfully lobbying her husband. "To me, the decision has already been made," he said. "It's a question of whether or not the governor's political advisors can talk him out of it."
The only one who will compete to hold the seat in November, however, is Kim. Menendez has launched a long shot independent bid, but the latest polling shows him in the single digits. According to FiveThirtyEight, the survey shows Kim with 39% of the support, compared to Republican Curtis Bashaw's 33%. Menendez has a meager 3% in that scenario. Should he not compete, Kim would climb to 41% and Bashaw to 34%.
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