Three words you will never hear from pundits and pollsters: “I was wrong.” Crikey warned you to ignore them. They know not what they do.
In a historic performance, Democrats have defied the “experts” with a resounding result in the US midterms. With Georgia, Arizona and Nevada still undecided, they have not lost any senators, while John Fetterman (D) delivered a knockout to Mehmet Oz (R) to capture Pennsylvania’s open seat. No need to wait for days. Astronaut Mark Kelly appears poised to hold his seat in Arizona, while it will be several days before the count is finalised in Nevada due to its all-mail voting.
Incumbent Georgia senator Raphael Warnock (D) won the most votes in his race, but fell just short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff against Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate Herschel Walker (R). The runoff will be held on December 6. Depending on other outcomes, it could be a replay of the 2021 showdown that delivered control of the Senate to the Democrats. Walker faces an uphill battle without the coattails of re-elected Georgia governor Brian Kemp (R) to help turn out dispirited Republicans voters again. If Senate control is off the table, his challenge will only be harder.
Control of the 118th House of Representatives won’t be known for several days. Early Republican gains in Florida proved isolated. January 6 Committee member Elaine Luria (D) lost a close contest in Virginia’s 2nd district (VA-2), but her colleagues Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) and Jennifer Wexton (D, VA-10) stood firm. These were early indicators that the predicted red wave was scarcely a ripple.
As successive state polls closed across the nation, Democrats flipped a few House seats of their own. In Ohio, Democrats defied an illegal Republican gerrymander, using maps that were rejected multiple times by the state’s Supreme Court, to flip two House seats. First-term firebrand Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3) faces defeat. With 90% of the vote tallied, she trails her Democratic opponent in her re-election bid in a once safe Republican district.
It’s axiomatic that first-term presidents lose seats in the midterms. Trump lost 40 seats. Obama shed 63. Clinton surrendered 52. Reagan dropped 26. Victory in the Cold War and the confrontation with Saddam Hussein helped George HW Bush stem losses to 8 seats. His son George W Bush is the only president since 1934 to have defied the trend, due to the rally effect caused by 9/11 and the War in Afghanistan. Relying on this pattern, soothsayers predicted a double-digit shellacking for President Biden’s party. They were wrong.
Republicans might eke out a narrow majority in the House, but they know this is a dreadful result. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy spent the past two years prostrating himself before Trump and the MAGA mob in a Faustian bargain to become Speaker. Now he might be thwarted, even if Republicans gain the gavel. Emboldened MAGA members may install their own champion. If McCarthy does somehow occupy the post, he will have no control over his caucus. Marjorie Taylor Greene and her fellow travellers will run riot, providing a daily reminder to voters of Republicans’ real priorities.
Down ballot races revealed the full extent of the Democrats’ triumph. Their Midwestern blue wall held as they retained governorships in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These wins were critical to foil Republican schemes to interfere the 2024 presidential election. Katie Hobbs (D) leads narrowly in the Arizona governor’s contest over Trump-backed election liar Kari Lake (R). New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) crushed her opponent Lee Zeldin (R), another blowout the pundits got wrong. Elsewhere Democrats gained governors’ offices in Maryland and Massachusetts, and kept the mansion in Republican stronghold Kansas. Republicans have yet to win a single gubernatorial fight.
Meanwhile Democrats also outperformed in state legislatures. In Michigan they took charge of both lower and upper chambers for the first time in almost four decades. They did the same in Minnesota, securing unified control for the first time since 2014. Control of the Pennsylvania legislature remains lineball. Democrats also prevented veto-proof Republican supermajorities in North Carolina and Wisconsin, meaning that the Democratic governors of both states cannot be bypassed.
Voters capped the results by mirroring the recent Kansas referendum to protect abortion rights in five states: California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont. This underscored the most important driver behind these returns: Dobbs changed everything! Don’t believe anyone who tells you otherwise. Democracy was on the ballot, but it was Dobbs that brought women to the polls in record numbers. Women sent Republicans packing.
The other key takeaway to burn into your minds is that Donald Trump and his MAGA base have now been rejected three elections in a row since scraping home in 2016. America had one bad night six years ago, and has been fighting the hangover ever since. However, the diverse majority outnumbers the Jim Crow minority. This margin is only headed in one direction.
Don’t expect the pundits to skip a beat. Already they are pivoting to 2024, and praising Ron DeSantis for his success in the Sunshine State. He is their new pin-up to supplant Trump. Save your brain cells and your time. Florida is sui generis. DeSantis is a flat track bully not ready for prime time. Republican officials remain terrified of Trump and his base. Whether he runs again or not, Trump will crush DeSantis like a bug.
Democrats made history yesterday. As comedian Noel Casler noted, the red wave turned out to be a red wedding. And Republicans are in disarray.
