As the CEO of one of the largest alternative asset management firms in the world, Blackstone (BX) -) head Steve Schwarzman doesn't always have time to wade into the murky waters of politics.
So when he does, most people tend to listen.
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Schwarzman has been a supporter of conventional GOP candidates over the years. For a short spell, he was an economic adviser to President Donald Trump, along with JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, Disney's Bob Iger and GE's Jack Welch.
But that was in 2016, and things are different now. As recently as 2020, Schwarzman donated $15 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, a conservative super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky). He's mostly stayed out of the front lines of politics, though occasionally he does philosophize about the future of the U.S.
Specifically, Schwarzman has been thinking about the 2024 presidential election, and whether the front-runners we're presented with currently will maintain their lead for another year and a half.
Conventional wisdom proposes we could see a rematch of the 2020 election, with President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee and Trump as the GOP's pick. Truth is, however, age has cropped up as an increasingly whispered issue between the two candidates. On Inauguration Day Biden will be 81 years old and Trump will be 78.
Blackstone CEO foresees a dark horse in 2024
Asked whether he thinks age will factor into America's decision in November 2024, Schwarzman gave a surprising answer.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Schwarzman, who didn't disclose whom he'd support in the election, instead pivoted to the next generation of hopefuls and where their promise might lie.
"I've learned there's always people who appear, who, you had no expectation. So when Barack Obama was elected as senator, it wasn't even within a year when he started running for president and he became president soon thereafter. There are other people who will come and do that," he suggested.
"American politics, I've found at the presidential level is pretty volatile. The people you think are going to win -- whether it was Hillary [Clinton] in 2016 they didn't win. Other people who were no place, you know, they end up winning," he continued.
"In 2015, about where we are now for a presidential election for the Republicans, you had the Governor of Wisconsin in first place, Jeb Bush in second place, Rudy Giuliani in third place, and by the time there were two or so primaries they were all gone and somebody named Donald Trump won who wasn't even in the game."
Surveys about age and politics
Schwarzman was careful not to make any predictions about the possible outcome for 2024, but he did leave a thought-provoking sentiment.
"I sort of just sit back and say, I've seen a lot of volatility in my life of what the public wants. Apparently the public is not that interested in really older people. I think there was a survey that said 77% of people did not want Biden to run again, so when you have that kind of situation, usually something else happens."
An early September poll by The Economist/YouGov found that 76% of respondents said there should be be a maximum age for someone in the U.S. to serve as president. Several weeks later, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 61% of respondents support an age cap for presidency, with the most popular cap set at 70 years old.
The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in a near dead heat: 47% of voters would support Biden and 46% support Trump.
