For a while, the split between Connor Bedard’s production at home and on the road was seriously strange.
As of Dec. 4 — after a three-game Blackhawks road trip in Bedard contributed to all of the mere three goals the team scored — the rookie phenom had tallied 16 points in 14 road games compared to only four points in nine home games.
But he has finally started to find a rhythm in Chicago lately, tallying six points — all assists — in the Hawks’ last three home games against the Capitals, Canucks and Avalanche.
He’s now up to 11 points in 15 total home games versus 17 points in 16 road games.
The victory over the Avalanche on Tuesday, in particular, marked one of his better performances of the season. He set up two first-period goals (by Ryan Donato and Lukas Reichel, respectively) with beautiful passes and also finished with six shots on goal, while the Hawks generated an 8-5 advantage in scoring chances during his five-on-five ice time.
“It was nice to see Connor using his speed and his legs even when he doesn’t have the puck,” coach Luke Richardson said. “That’s going to be crucial for him going forward.”
Whether he’s getting more accustomed to the subtle quirks of the United Center ice surface, pressing less in front of Hawks fans — instead of perhaps trying a bit too hard to impress at first — or simply experiencing some statistical regression to the mean, his split has begun to normalize.
There is still a huge disparity in terms of goals: 10 of his 12 have been scored on the road. But his shooting frequency is nearly identical at home compared to on the road (18.2 vs. 18.5 attempts per 60 minutes), and while he is generating somewhat fewer scoring chances at home (8.6 vs. 12.9 per 60 minutes), his lucky 18.2% road shooting percentage and unlucky 4.4% home shooting percentage will eventually even out.
One major factor that should help him in Chicago — although, to be fair, it should have been helping him all along — involves Richardson’s ability to get him more favorable line matchups thanks to the second-change advantage home teams receive in the NHL.
The Hawks’ dearth of dangerous offensive weapons beyond Bedard makes it very compelling for opposing teams to try to deploy their best players against Bedard’s line.
They know if they can shut him down — or at least limit his impact — they’ll probably be in good shape. Thus, Bedard’s quality of competition this season has been among the toughest faced by any player league-wide.
With more home games on the schedule recently, however, Richardson has been able to strategically send Bedard out against less daunting opposing lines.
The Hawks’ two games against the Avalanche this season — a 4-0 road loss Oct. 19 and the 3-2 home win Tuesday — demonstrate the difference.
In Denver, Bedard mostly faced Nathan MacKinnon’s line, and the Avalanche enjoyed a 6-1 scoring-chance advantage during their 8:10 of five-on-five time together. It was arguably Bedard’s worst game of the season.
“That was like a pretty big ‘Welcome to the NHL’ moment. I don’t know if I got a puck touch,” Bedard said Tuesday, looking back.
In Chicago, conversely, Bedard mostly faced Jonathan Drouin, Ross Colton and Miles Wood, spending 8:07 of five-on-five ice time against Drouin compared to just 2:06 against MacKinnon. Unsurprisingly, he was much more successful.
“He’s got the talent, but he’s driven,” Richardson said. “He probably didn’t like that feeling [in Denver], and he wanted to show a better version of himself and our team.”
Now touting 28 points in 31 games overall, Bedard finds himself on pace for a 74-point season. That would not only lead all 2023-24 rookies by a mile but also represent the NHL’s best rookie campaign since Mathew Barzal on the 2017-18 Islanders.
