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France 24
France 24
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François PICARD

Black sea and black ops: How exposed is Europe to Ukraine war spillover?

Cover image: Firefighter work at a site of a destroyed warehouse hit during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released October 8, 2026. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kyiv region © State Emergency Service of Ukraine, REUTERS

The story’s as underreported as it is consequential for the entire planet: Three Turkish-owned cargo ships out of Ukraine hit in EU waters by suspected Russian drones. One, the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sinking Tuesday off Bulgaria. Ten Egyptian and Syrian crew missing. For its part, Ukraine’s been hitting Russian tankers in the Black Sea... this with no sign of a return to a UN-brokered deal to allow oil, grain and fertilizer ships to pass.

With the United States in drawdown mode - and reports its president's entourage is coveting commercial deals with Moscow - what’s Europe’s to do? The same Europe that’s still grappling over whether the closing of a few Russian consulates is strong enough of a response to the August drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo plane in Leipzig, Germany. So... how far will Russia push Europe? How equipped are Europeans both for hybrid warfare and war on the cheap… what with the Ukraine war illustrating how easy it is to mass produce the drones that can pummel cities and sap morale? Is the threat real or exaggerated, particularly in the minds of the tens of millions who will be called on in the coming months to cast ballots in Spanish, French and Italian elections?

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