The 2023 NFL regular season is over. For 18 teams, that means the 2024 offseason has begun — and for a handful of them, so has the search for a new head coach.
This fall was a brutal one for struggling coaches. Three were set off on an ice floe in the midst of the season, relieved of their duties while games were still going on in an effort to stop their flaws from infecting their teams. They ranged from the revered (Frank Reich) to the reviled (Josh McDaniels) to the impossible to read (Brandon Staley).
That led us to January 8; the day after Week 18 informally known as Black Monday. More coaching shakeups are on the way. Here’s everyone that’s been fired, going from most recent (Ron Rivera and then Arthur Smith, who was relieved of his duties at 12:01 to kick off the day) to the first man out (Reich).
8
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Seasons with the team: 24
Record: 266-121
Playoff wins: 30
Black Monday was anticlimatic. But Black Wednesday and Black Thursday came through, ushering the league’s two oldest coaches from the sideline. Belichick followed Pete Carroll into the mildly unknown, leaving New England as the most successful coach in NFL history.
He exits after his worst season as a head coach anywhere, along with the comfort that only the most obnoxious sports radio hosts will care. His Patriots tenure took a team that was the east coast’s slightly less embarrassing version of the Cleveland Browns and won six Super Bowls. He took Tom Brady from the 199th overall pick to the greatest of all time. And while he couldn’t do it without his legendary QB late in his career, the point was made. There was no coach you wanted to see less in the playoffs than Belichick.
He’ll have his share of suitors if he wants to coach elsewhere. New England’s failing on that end would be not getting a draft pick in return for allowing its legendary coach to leave — after all, the Patriots traded a first round pick to the New York Jets for the right to hire Belichick in the first place.
What the new coach will inherit: A mess. New England just suffered its worst season since the one that allowed it to draft Drew Bledsoe first overall. The two quarterbacks who return with starting experience are Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe who, and this is important, are bad at football. The offensive line needs new tackles and the receiving corps needs a new everything.
Things are better on the defensive side of the ball. Matthew Judon and rookie star Christian Gonzalez will return from injury. Christian Barmore looks like the truth. Kyle Dugger may be retained as a pending free agent. There’s talent with this defense, but the offense needs an overhaul. Fortunately, the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and a boatload of salary cap space should help.
7
Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
Seasons with the team: 14
Record: 137-89
Playoff wins: 10
Carroll was prolific in his decade-plus in Seattle. Now the man who was the league’s oldest active head coach enters his late-stage Mike Holmgren phase, moving into an advisory role with the team. That’s good news for the Seahawks; his draft input has been immensely valuable in building a worthy young core.
Ultimately, Seattle lacked the firepower to break out of stasis, particularly after the 25-26 record of the last three seasons. Whomever takes over will get one more whack at turning Geno Smith into a playoff winner, then a minor rebuild — at least at quarterback — could take place.
This doesn’t diminish what Carroll did for the Seahawks. He’s the only head coach in team history with a Super Bowl ring. He constantly and continually turned less into more. And when he had more, he made it devastating — see Marshawn Lynch and those Legion of Boom defenses. He proved he could win at the highest levels of the sport, whether than was the NCAA or NFL, and is likely Hall of Fame bound.
What the new coach will inherit: A solid young core, a defense in hire straits and a decision to be made at quarterback. The next man up gets DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Ngijba, Kenneth Walker, Abe Lucas, Charles Cross … and those are just the young studs on the offensive side of the ball. The question is whether or not Smith can be the guy to guide them to playoff success.
The defense was a mess in 2023 despite a handful of stars. The Seahawks ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, which makes their 9-8 record even more impressive in retrospect. The good news is young studs like Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Boye Mafe look like the kind of foundational pieces around which you can build.
6
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Seasons with the team: Six
Record: 54-45
Playoff wins: Two
The Titans were untenable. A new era waited on the horizon. It will not include Vrabel.
Tennessee surged beyond expectations thanks to the bruising runs of Derrick Henry, unexpectedly consistent and efficient play of Ryan Tannehill and a defense that was occasionally competent. But Henry slogged through the worst season of his career and is a free agent. Tannehill’s play fell off a cliff before being replaced by Will Levis. He’s also a free agent. That defense ranked fifth-worst when it came to expected points added (EPA) allowed per play.
These forces combined to make Vrabel 6-18 in his final 24 games, including a collapse from 7-3 to 7-10 to wrap up 2022. With the personnel behind his surprising rise on the way out, ownership decided it was time for a fresh start.
What the new coach will inherit: A rebuild whose timing will ideally coincide with the Titans’ new, mixed-use residential-looking stadium. Levis has potential and will win fans over behind his philosophy of running face first into every tackle, but he faced predictable struggles as a rookie passer and is far from a sure thing. The offense around him has one reliable contributor in the passing game and it’s a 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins.
The defense is similarly barren. Roger McCreary took steps toward being a reliable cornerback, but concerns linger throughout the rest of the secondary (Eric Garror might be a useful slot corner, but his sample size is small). Harold Landry returned from injury for a 10.5-sack season and Jeffrey Simmons continues to be a wrecking ball. Other than that there are few bright spots on which a new coach can rely.
But hey, Tennessee’s estimated $64 million in effective salary cap space in 2024 is tops in the NFL, per Over the Cap. That’s something!
5
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Seasons with the team: Four
Record: 26-40-1
Playoff wins: 0
This was inevitable. Rivera was a sigil of professionalism in Washington, the man dressed in a suit amidst a front office operated by clowns in the Dan Snyder era. But Josh Harris assumed ownership of the team last summer, putting pressure on the well-regarded head coach to win with a depleted roster in order to keep his job.
That didn’t happen. The Commanders finished the season with eight straight losses, sealing Rivera’s fate but offering an appealing silver lining for whomever takes over. Trade deadline deals that shipped out Montez Sweat and Chase Young have left Washington flush with draft capital for 2024. Thanks in no small part to Rivera’s dedication to quarterbacking disaster Sam Howell (-62 expected points added in that eight game losing streak), that includes the No. 2 overall pick in a draft that features two blue chip passers.
Rivera is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year. He won’t be judged harshly for taking up the challenge of corraling the Commanders and failing. His best quarterback in those four losing seasons was, arguably, Jacoby Brissett. Another job will be waiting on the horizon if he wants it, though maybe not in 2024. Or he can head to a pregame show somewhere and lend expert analysis. Either way, Riverboat Ron will be fine.
What the new coach will inherit: Potential and hope. We don’t know if Harris is a good owner or not, but we know he’ll be better than Dan Snyder simply because he is not Dan Snyder. Rivera’s successor gets a clean slate and the opportunity to build a roster in his image. The Commanders have the second overall pick and four selections in rounds two and three. They also have an estimated $78.8 million in salary cap space, per Over the Cap — most in the NFL so far.
4
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Seasons with the team: Three
Record: 21-30
Playoff wins: 0
The Falcons wasted no time offloading Smith, no doubt infuriating any bettors that had Ron Rivera as a heavy favorite in the “next coach fired” sweepstakes. It was barely Black Monday in the Eastern time zone when news broke that Smith wouldn’t get a fourth year to try and turn Atlanta’s fortunes around.
The #Falcons fired coach Arthur Smith, per sources. pic.twitter.com/6HYKkuXIPF
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 8, 2024
Smith was supposed to bring a creative counter-culture mindset to the Falcons’ offense after helping revive Ryan Tannehill’s career and building a run-heavy attack in a pass-first NFL as offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans. Instead, his units remained stuck in neutral despite a growing cache of skill players who were selected with top 10 draft picks. This 2023 team had Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson in the lineup, but since their quarterbacks were either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta only ranked 26th in points scored coming into Week 18.
Smith spent his final week as the team’s head coach getting whooped by the rival New Orleans Saints, then getting red-faced when Jameis Winston overrode his coach’s decision to kneel-out a win and handed the ball off for a touchdown out of the victory formation late in a 48-17 defeat.
Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen have a postgame chat 😳 pic.twitter.com/s469d2OcWq
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 7, 2024
This is, ultimately, Smith’s legacy. A bunch of bluster and expectations without follow through. He went 21-30 in three seasons with the Falcons, failing to a tidy 7-10 record each season despite a soft schedule and an entirely winnable NFC South the last two years. Whatever magic he’d conjured in Nashville failed him in Atlanta; now he’s the first victim of Black Friday 2024
What the new coach will inherit: Lots of good players! The veteran defense may lose steam, but was the best in the NFL against the run this season. Pitts, Robinson and London remain on rookie contracts. There’s a decent array of veteran quarterbacks who could step into a starting role and yet another top 10 draft pick could land a passer like Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix to throw to them. Plus, owner Arthur Blank has proven himself as a patient and receptive boss — you know, pretty much the opposite of David Tepper.
3
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Seasons with the team: Nearly three
Record: 24-24
Playoff wins: 0
Staley stood close enough to Sean McVay to be considered a hot young coaching talent. That led him to Los Angeles’ other locker room less than five years removed from calling defenses at Division III John Carroll University.
This meteoric rise unveiled a head coach who believed in analytics and then had no idea what plays to call when the numbers told him to go for it. Staley was bold in his approach but found ways to lose even when the odds were in his favor. He made fourth down decisions as though he had inside information on a horse race, then relayed plays to his offense like he’d forgotten who to bet on while walking to the counter.
More importantly, his defenses stunk. Los Angeles made splashy moves to improve against the run, in the pass rush and in the secondary. The only one that’s panned out is the trade for Khalil Mack, who is having the most productive season of his career for a team with no playoff aspirations whatsoever. He could have stayed in Chicago if he wanted to do that.
What the new coach will inherit: Justin Herbert, who is very good but no longer playing on an inexpensive rookie contract (his salary cap hit rises to $19.3 million in 2024, $37.3 million in 2025, $46.3 million in 2026 and gets more expensive from there). An aging group of skill players whose stars are either pending free agents (Austin Ekeler) or will be in 2025 (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams). Khalil Mack, who had the most sacks in his illustrious career but turns 33 in February, and his $38 million cap hit. The rest of the defense behind him ranks in the bottom five in both points and yards allowed.
2
Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
Seasons with the team: Not even two
Record: 9-16
Playoff wins: 0
12 years, much of it spent with Tom Brady as the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator, were enough to diffuse the lingering stink of McDaniels’ first head coaching stint with the Denver Broncos. Then he arrived in Las Vegas, alienated players and became yet another high profile that the Patriot Way ™ is intransitive. His Raiders stunk, but not in any way that suggested a plan for the future or a path back to prosperity. They were a rudderless ship drifting along a sea of below-averageness.
McDaniels brought in former New England players to varying degrees and few victories. He went 2-0 against Bill Belichick and 7-16 against everyone else which, honestly, is a pretty great heckle. He had enough notable, schadenfreude-inducing losses in barely 1.5 seasons in Las Vegas that we felt compelled to rank them.
What the new coach will inherit: The quarterback duo of Aidan O’Connell and Jimmy Garoppolo, the latter of which probably can’t be ushered off the roster until 2025 (barring a trade, which feels unlikely). An offense capable of putting up 63 points one week after being shut out — and one likely without Josh Jacobs, who will be a free agent. Maxx Crosby, who rules, and Amik Robertson, who has developed into a pretty useful slot cornerback. A team owner that will probably schedule entirely too many meetings at P.F. Chang’s.
1
Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers
Seasons with the team: Less than one
Record: 1-10
Playoff wins: 0
Reich was hired to oversee an overhaul. Team owner David Tepper’s first coaching hire was a respected offensive mind who’d turned Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate and called the plays that made Nick Foles a Super Bowl MVP. He had wisdom to impart to whatever young quarterback the Panthers selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Apparently some of that wisdom was to draft CJ Stroud, which Tepper allegedly overruled in favor of Bryce Young. OK, rough start. From there, Tepper and Reich reportedly clashed as differing sources within the organization got into the tempermental hedge fund manager’s ear. Reich wasn’t great and flip-flopped between calling plays and not calling them. Carolina crated to a league-worst record without the cold comfort of a high draft pick to follow and Tepper made his top job significantly less appealing by pulling the plug after 11 games.
What the new coach will inherit: A young franchise (?) quarterback in Bryce Young, despite all his 2023 struggles. The offensive line and receiving corps largely responsible for those struggles. A defense whose two most effective pass rushers, Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu, are both pending free agents. Roughly $30 million in effective salary cap space, a good chunk of which will probably go toward re-signing Burns and Luvu. A team owner who keeps a literal set of brass testicles on his desk and is, apparently, both strong-willed and wildly suggestable depending on the day of the week.
