Is today the day? There is good reason to think it is, and that a federal appeals court will publish its long-awaited ruling in Grayscale v. SEC, a case that will determine whether the Securities and Exchange Commission was unreasonable in refusing to grant a Bitcoin ETF. There is a lot at stake for the crypto industry: If Grayscale prevails, the doors swing open to trillions of dollars of newly eligible capital, and if it doesn’t, prices will fall in response to yet another setback.
While crypto watchers have been waiting for the decision for months, there is strong reason to think the ruling will finally come today or at the end of the week—Tuesday and Friday being the days the District of Columbia Court of Appeals, which heard the case, publishes its decisions. While it’s not a certainty, this is most likely the week for two reasons. First, as lawyer Scott Johnson points out, we are at the 160-day mark for the case—and the court has issued rulings within 160 days of hearing the case 94% of the time. Second, this is precisely the time of year when the judge’s law clerks, who help craft rulings over the course of a one-year term, move on to make way for new clerks.
