Is the Australian economy on a recessionary knife-edge or holding up well despite a dozen domestic interest rate rises and those global headwinds we’ve been hearing all about?
A slew of economic surveys, including several out on Tuesday, point to contradictory trends that signal either deepening despair or remarkable resilience.
For Luke Achterstraat, the chief executive of the Council of Small Business Organisations Australia (Cosboa), “it’s a bit of a conundrum” trying to assess the health of the economy and, hence, whether the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rises are done.
The group’s latest quarterly small and micro business index compiled with data group Square found companies’ revenue growth has been steady for some time in the face of soaring borrowing costs.
Steady as she goes: revenue holding up for many small businesses, @COSBOA survey shows. pic.twitter.com/xLukVguDxG
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) August 8, 2023
Achterstraat said the survey found the labour market remained extremely tight. Anecdotally, he cited the case of a retailer of gas-fired fireplaces in inner Sydney’s Marrickville which could not find a retail assistant to work on Thursday nights and Saturdays despite offering about $80,000 a year.
And, counter to the doomsayers, the economy added a net 11,349 new businesses in the June quarter, rebounding in recent months, Cosboa said.
Despite an increase in business exits, there was a net increase of 11,349 new business in Australia in the June quarter. (Source: @Cosboa) pic.twitter.com/Px4vPXvSBz
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) August 8, 2023
NAB’s monthly business survey for July also reinforced signs companies were yet to declare a big deterioration.
Overall conditions eased one point last month but remained positive (at +10 points). Trading conditions, employment and profitability were all steady and positive. Business confidence even rose 2 points to be +2.
But business confidence and conditions are generally holding up. (Source: NAB) pic.twitter.com/7SQKpHGTtm
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) August 8, 2023
These numbers challenge “expectations that the economy would continue to cool as 2023 wears on”, NAB said in its accompanying commentary.
NAB is alone among the big four banks to predict another RBA rate rise. Its chief economist, Alan Oster, said the survey reinforced his prediction the central bank would hoist borrowing costs from 4.1% to 4.35%, probably in November.
Westpac’s surveys add to evidence of conflicting economic currents. Its business bank last month published data showing firms had built up savings and had credit lines necessary to ride out a sharp downturn should one occur.
Businesses, in aggregate, are in a relatively strong position to weather a slowdown in economic activity. (Source: Westpac Group) pic.twitter.com/5t0QdlIRpq
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) August 8, 2023
Besa Deda, the chief economist at Westpac’s business bank, said companies’ “starting position is a strong one … which will assist them with weathering the next cycle”.
Deda noted firms’ capacity utilisation increased almost a full percentage point in July to 84.5%, not far shy of the all-time high of 86.2%. Any moderation in business credit growth should remain gradual, she said.
That confidence, though, is not matched by Westpac’s surveys of how consumers view their world. Its latest report showed another modest drop in August, with sentiment as dim as during the depths of the global financial crisis 15 years ago and the worst of the Covid pandemic.
A two-track economy seems to be emerging with consumer confidence remaining low... (Source: Westpac/Melbourne Institute) pic.twitter.com/4rPwjCflcI
— @phannam@mastodon.green (@p_hannam) August 8, 2023
Consumers, perhaps surprisingly, reported feeling less cheery after the RBA left its key interest rate unchanged on 1 August for a second month in a row.
In fact, so despondent were shoppers that two-thirds expected the central bank to lift rates further in the year ahead. Remarkably, “nearly half of this group [was] expecting a rise of over 1 percentage point”, Westpac said, a gloom reading beyond that of the most hawkish of economist forecasts.
Paul Zahra, the chief executive of the Australian Retailers Association, said his industry was already experiencing a downturn somewhat masked by broad-based assessments of the economy.
“By our assessment, retail is down by every indicator,” Zahra said, particularly when spending is adjusted for inflation.
He said there was “an absolute collision” between a cost-of-living crisis and a cost-of-doing-business crisis: “From wages, to leases, to insurance, to utilities – all costs are going up.”
NAB’s July survey of business also identified that quickening of labour cost growth, with the quarterly pace accelerating to 3.7% in July from 2.3% in June. One factor was the Fair Work Commission’s decisions, which lifted some wages by 8.6%.
Zahra said Father’s Day on 3 September, the last big gift-giving day between now and Christmas, would be among upcoming gauges of the vitality of the retail sector. A recent survey by his association predicted spending would drop about 1.3% from last year to $860m.
And if the RBA opted to lift the cash rate one more time, he hopes it doesn’t come in November, as NAB, for one, forecasts.
“That would be devastating for the retail community … you’re really impacting Christmas sales by that stage.”
