The New England Patriots have a lot of work to do on offense.
Not only did the Buffalo Bills posterize Bill Belichick’s squad in the playoffs, but the Patriots also saw more attrition than addition during the offseason. It might have been an overreaction to blow up this offense, just because of one tough loss to a division rival. Belichick, rightfully, didn’t do that.
He did, however, get rid of one of his starters (guard Shaq Mason) while watching another (Ted Karras) walk in free agency. The good news is that the Patriots have a starting-caliber guard waiting: Michael Onwenu. The bad news is that they don’t have another answer at guard. At this point, they project to start James Ferentz at left guard. Not ideal.
But guard might actually be the least of their worries. Historically, they’ve found ways to fill holes at that position, both using free agency and mid-round draft choices. Don’t get me wrong. It will be important. New England’s rushing attack was central to its offense in 2021. And it will be important again. But the Patriots need to do more than run the football. They need to threaten defense in other ways. Their overreliance on the run game proved problematic in 2021. The Patriots were so reliant upon establishing the run (and using screen passes) that defenses favored that tendency, and Mac Jones struggled to exploit stacked boxes and single coverage.
Why? Well, you already know what I’m going to say. He had issues connecting with his pass-catchers. By adding receiver DeVante Parker in a discount-deal trade last weekend, the Patriots further solidified their depth at the position. But Parker has just as many question marks as the others at the position.
Parker has played just one full NFL season, missing time in six of his seven years while struggling with hamstring, ankle and shoulder injuries.
Receiver Nelson Agholor has been unreliable. He and Jones couldn’t seem to connect during the 2021 season. Agholor was supposed to take the top off the defense, and while he did that, he acted as more of a decoy to help his teammates get yards, rather than providing actual yardage himself.
Kendrick Bourne grew with the offense, taking a bigger role. The Patriots have to hope that trajectory continues upward.
Jakobi Meyers is likely to continue to be himself, a sometimes-sluggish but always reliable slot option — who has a knack for showing up on third down.
Tight end Hunter Henry, as good as he was early in the season, struggled to get open in the red area at the end of the season, because teams knew Jones wanted to go to his tight end – another tendency that teams limited.
Tight end Jonnu Smith was a virtual non-factor, even in a season when he was getting $12.5 million, third-most annually among tight ends last year. New England had to design plays to get him the ball.
And James White is 30 years old and coming back from a hip injury.
Maybe the Patriots are ready to ground away at their opponents again in 2022. But their opponents showed they’re ready for that — and know how to defend it. So New England has to grow and evolve.
They’re seemingly ready to do that, abandoning the pure fullback role — surely in favor of an offense that has a greater passing focus. That means Jones will be a bigger part of the offense. He can’t just manage games. He’ll need to start winning them.
To do that, Jones needs to make better use of his underachieving pass-catchers like Agholor and Smith. That will put pressure on whoever is the offensive coordinator (probably either Joe Judge or Nick Caley) who will have to rewire those connections — or lack thereof. And then they have to hope Parker doesn’t suffer a serious injury.
If Jones comes back to the Patriots with increased confidence after a steady 22-touchdown, 13-interception season, the Patriots offense will naturally take a step forward. But for them to be a truly dangerous team, they will need to have answers to the areas of uncertainty among their pass-catchers. They’ll need Jones to start highlighting his teammates’ strengths and masking their shortcomings. He’ll need to start to be the answer to the uncertainty for each pass-catcher. As the roster is currently constructed, Belichick is betting on it.
