The Indianapolis Colts certainly won’t be having a quiet offseason in 2023.
The coming months will bring some change to the organization, which involves two of the biggest impact positions on a football team.
The head coach and quarterback.
Plus, there is the expectation of changes to the roster after the severely underwhelming 2022 season.
Let’s take a look at the biggest offseason storylines to keep an eye on:
1
New head coach's impact
Once the current prolonged storyline for the Colts of officially making the hire of their new head coach is over then that will immediately transfer into an offseason storyline for the new leader of the franchise. His impact will be something to watch over the lead-up to the season opener.
The first thing to keep an eye on is who he has on his coaching staff. Will Gus Bradley and Bubba Ventrone end up sticking around with the team? It’s been reported that some of the coaching candidates want Bradley but there hasn’t been any official report of Ventrone’s status with the candidates. But one would think they’d prefer to keep one of the best special teams coaches on their staff.
Once that all gets finalized then we will get to see the new head coach’s impact on the roster. Will the current offensive players fit what he wants to do with the scheme? If not, then we could end up seeing some releases or trades from that side of the ball.
Even if Bradley does stick with the team, there also might be roster movement on the defensive side of the ball as well. The new head coach also will impact the type of players that Chris Ballard will target in the upcoming NFL draft.
Once the Colts get through free agency and the draft, the story will head to how the players are reacting to their new leader in offseason workouts, OTAs, and training camp. While the eyes will be on who will be the new quarterback, it is just as much as important how the new leader of the franchise galvanizes the team.
2
The new franchise quarterback
For the first time since Andrew Luck retired, the Colts are in a prime position to select the long-term answer they’ve been hunting for over the past three offseasons. As of right now, they look set to get one of the top two quarterback prospects on their draft board since there is no expectation of the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals selecting one.
But that doesn’t mean Indianapolis should be complacent and see how the board falls. There are a couple of extra motivating factors why Chris Ballard needs to consider a move up to the number one slot. The biggest reason would be if the franchise is head over heels for one certain quarterback then they need to go get him.
He did say back in January he would make that trade if he had to. Ballard stated, “I’d do whatever it takes. If we thought there’s a player that we’re driven to get, that makes the franchise and the team better, that’s what we do.”
Especially with the Houston Texans sitting at the second spot. It would sting to see the player they wanted with a divisional rival. One other reason why the Colts need to consider the trade-up is that the Cardinals could look to move back for a team that also wants one of the top two quarterback prospects.
Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and the Carolina Panthers all could end up making that move. Regardless of how the draft unfolds, either Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Will Levis will be a Colt. That will be the most talked about story for the franchise in the next couple of months.
3
Chris Ballard's approach to free agency
There is no secret that Chris Ballard usually will take a slow and methodical approach to free agency. He’s not afraid to skip the initial waves and avoid overpaying for a player to add to the roster. While he should’ve been more aggressive in the recent seasons to compete in the market, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the same thing from the Colts this offseason.
With certain players like Lamar Jackson expected to get franchised or re-signed to their current teams, this isn’t the greatest free agency class in recent years. There will be a lot of solid players entering the market but no clear-cut marquee player for a team to go strongly after.
As of now, per OverTheCap, Indianapolis is sitting at $12.5 million in cap space, which is the 13th most in the NFL. That isn’t a lot to work with but Ballard can create room with restructures, cuts, and trading away players.
As I mentioned, I can see another typical Ballard approach to free agency this offseason with the crop of players that will be on the market but he still can be aggressive with trades like he did last year with Matt Ryan and Yannick Ngakoue.
In hindsight, they didn’t put the team over the hump, but it did show he was willing to be active during that period to add talent to the roster, and at the time, most liked those moves by the front office. It will be interesting to see how Ballard does end up approaching this upcoming offseason.
4
Roster Movement
As I alluded to, the Colts roster is set to go under some changes over the next few months. This means some veterans could end up playing in a different jersey for the 2023 season. The first expected move is that Matt Ryan will end up being released to help create more cap space. After that, we will see if other players end up being cap casualties or traded away.
One name I recently mentioned as a potential player for Indy to move on from is Ryan Kelly. A center-needy team could trade for him or Ballard could add more cap space with his release. Some other names to watch that are entering the final year of their contract are Stephon Gilmore, Kenny Moore II, and Grover Stewart.
Gilmore will turn 33 next season and might want to be on a team with a shot at a Super Bowl so it would make sense to move him if a deal is there. Moore II wanted a raise prior to the 2022 season but after a down year and not being the best fit for Bradley’s scheme, Chris Ballard could shop him around.
I don’t see why Stewart would get traded but he may want a raise after his past season so the front office will have to factor in that he turns 30 next season and they are already paying DeForest Buckner on the interior of the defensive line.
The positive news for the Colts is that they will have a rookie quarterback contract to play around with so they can elect to give out extensions if they wish but don’t be surprised if you see some veterans under contract depart from the roster.
5
Extensions for Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.?
This is an offseason storyline that I wouldn’t expect to be resolved anytime soon based on the franchise’s recent history of giving out extensions. They typically will make a move like this right before the season kicks off as they did in 2022 with Quenton Nelson. Jonathan Taylor is the first player I would expect the front office to approach about a new deal. While paying a running back money is always a highly-debated topic, the Colts will have the luxury of the rookie quarterback contract to offset it over the next five seasons.
Ballard didn’t shy away when asked about paying his star back, “When they’re a special playmaker, it is,” Ballard said, asked if it’s wise to pay a running back top dollar in today’s NFL. “I’m not going to get into what we’re going to do contract-wise with him, but when you’re a special player and a special playmaker, yeah.”
The one thing that could impact extension talks is that Taylor will be coming off ankle surgery. This is bad timing for him, considering he’s been healthy throughout his young football career. I’d expect Taylor’s agent to want to get him as the top paid back while the Colts understand they likely will have to at least make him a top-five paid running back in the league. Let’s take a quick look at the current top APY for running backs:
- Christian McCaffrey: $16M
- Alvin Kamara: $15M
- Ezekiel Elliott: $15M
- Dalvin Cook: $12.6M
- Derrick Henry: $12.5M
Ballard also can factor in that most of the deals were done a few years ago and could go after the three-year extension mold that Nick Chubb got from the Cleveland Browns in 2021. He’s making $12.2M APY.
The situation with Michael Pittman Jr. is what intrigues me. Will he want number one receiver type of money? D.J. Moore has the 10th-highest APY for a receiver with $20.6M. So that would likely be his baseline if he wants to get paid that way. With it being his first payday, his agent will want to get the highest number they can get to and I don’t see them wanting anything less than the $18M APY that Christian Kirk got last offseason.
As I’ve said multiple times, Indianapolis can afford to work with paying players over the next five years with a rookie quarterback so they can consider that type of money for Pittman Jr., but my personal concern is that they would still need an elite receiver and that type of money could be saved for a player like that. One thing that Ballard can factor in is the franchise tag. If he can at least get Tayor or Pittman Jr. extended prior to the season then he can use the tag to work out a deal in 2024.
