One more season of divisional play for the Big Ten. One last crack at winning the West for Illinois. One prediction coming right up that can be filed under the heading, “Seriously, though, name a single reason it can’t happen.”
OK, so the heading is kind of a mouthful.
So is this: We’re picking the Illini to win the West and, on the first Saturday of December, make their debut in the conference’s 13-year-old championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. There, full of fire and fury, they’ll storm the field and — this isn’t fantasyland — lose to College Football Playoff-bound Michigan.
Why Illinois? Why not? The Illini are coming off an eight-win season that included back-to-back-to-back victories against Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska and a memorable near-miss at mighty Michigan. They have taken enormous strides up front on both sides of the ball and have as dominant a duo on the defensive line — Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph — as there is anywhere in the Big Ten. They have weapons on offense and a new quarterback, Luke Altmyer, about whom they are excited. And they have a coach, Bret Bielema, who’s a more complete package than he was at Wisconsin or Arkansas.
Iowa or Wisconsin could win the division. Minnesota might have a defense ready to do some real damage. But the Big Ten remains a lopsided league, by now an old story. What’s different is that the Illini have the roster and the momentum to swing for the fences in the lesser, and very winnable, West.
WEST DIVISION
1. Illinois
2022: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
2023 regular-season prediction: 9-4, 7-2
Big question: Can the Illini run the table against Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota again? It seems like a stretch. It might be more doable to upset Penn State in Week 3 in Champaign. That would get everybody talking.
2. Wisconsin
2022: 7-6, 4-5
2023 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 6-3
Big question: The Air Raid in Madison? Luke Fickell was a game-changing hire as coach, literally. He brought in offensive coordinator Phil Longo to unleash a wide-open passing game, and the keys have been handed to a talented QB in transfer Tanner Mordecai. Little-known fact, though: It gets cold up in those parts.
3. Iowa
2022 record: 8-5, 5-4
2023 regular-season prediction: 9-3, 6-3
Big question: Why are 25 and 7 the magic numbers? That’s how many points the Hawkeyes must average and games they must win for offensive coordinator and coach’s son Brian Ferentz to keep his position. Transfer QB Cade McNamara, from Michigan, has to be good.
4. Minnesota
2022 record: 9-4, 5-4
2023 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 4-5
Big question: What the heck was that mess on Thursday? The offense was frighteningly bad in a 13-10 opening win against Nebraska. Not too much should be made of a Week Zero performance — it wasn’t even September yet — but the Gophers are off to a rocky start.
5. Nebraska
2022 record: 4-8, 3-6
2023 prediction: 5-7, 3-6
Big question: Are the Huskers cursed? They should be 1-0 but, uncannily, now are 2-14 in one-score games since the start of the 2021 season. Matt Rhule was hired to fix that, and given time he probably will, but these players still have no idea how to win.
6. Purdue
2022 record: 8-6, 6-3
2023 prediction: 4-8, 2-7
Big question: How good was Jeff Brohm? With Brohm coaching at Louisville and ex-Illini defensive coordinator Ryan Walters in as a first-time head coach, it’s a dicey moment for the Boilermakers. At least they play in the right division.
7. Northwestern
2022 record: 1-11, 1-8
2023 prediction: 3-9, 1-8
Big question: Anything new with the Wildcats? It was Pat Fitzgerald’s job to stop the bleeding for the Wildcats, who’ve been awful two years running, but then, well, you know. There’s probably a conference win in there somewhere. How does Week 4 against Minnesota sound?
EAST DIVISION
1. Michigan
2022: 13-1, 9-0
2023 regular-season prediction: 12-1, 8-1
Big question: Is the Wolverines’ mojo working? Some of them might still be dazed from a 51-45 loss to TCU in last season’s playoff that flew in the face of everything they believed they were made of. Also, coach Jim Harbaugh has a three-game suspension to serve out of the gate. Still, this team is absolutely loaded.
2. Ohio State
2022: 11-2, 8-1
2023 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 8-1
Big question: It can’t happen again, can it? Another loss to That Team Up North, that is. For the Buckeyes to get back to the Big Ten mountaintop, they’ll probably have to end a bitterly painful two-game losing streak to Michigan with a win at the Big House the Saturday after Thanksgiving.
3. Penn State
2022 record: 11-2, 7-2
2023 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2
Big question: Is it time? Many experts view the Nittany Lions as equals to the Wolverines and Buckeyes. Some are picking the Nits to come right over the top, win the East and go to the playoff, and what a story that would be. All eyes, meanwhile, are on new starting QB Drew Allar.
4. Maryland
2022 record: 8-5, 4-5
2023 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4
Big question: Taulia Tagovailoa, Heisman Trophy finalist? The record-setting QB — yes, still Tua’s little bro — will have to be magnificent for the Terrapins to break into the top three in the East. If he and they can pull that off, there will be a front-row seat for him in New York at the Heisman ceremony.
5. Michigan State
2022 record: 5-7, 3-6
2023 prediction: 6-6, 4-5
Big question: Are we sure Mel Tucker knows defense? The ex-Bears coordinator’s defenses with the Spartans have been jokes. There’s no moving back up in the world unless that changes. And, boy, is the schedule a bear.
6. Indiana
2022 record: 4-8, 2-7
2023 prediction: 3-9, 1-8
Big question: Is Indiana a basketball school? But we kid; of course it is. The running game could be something decent to lean on, and all the transfers on the roster invite a certain amount of hope into the overall equation. But not much.
7. Rutgers
2022 record: 4-8, 1-8
2023 prediction: 3-9, 1-8
Big question: Will it ever get better? In its 10th season in the Big Ten, Rutgers will endeavor to win more than three league games for the first time. One of them had better be Sunday against Northwestern, or else forget about it. Come to think of it, forget about it either way.
