Has it really been 10 years since Bret Bielema led the Wisconsin Badgers to a 70-31 rout of Nebraska in the Big Ten championship game, only to ditch them three days later for Arkansas?
Badgers fans have dutifully rooted against the man ever since. If you close your eyes and concentrate, you can already hear the lusty boos that are waiting for Bielema at Camp Randall Stadium, where he returns for the first time on Saturday.
“What’s behind us is behind us,” said Bielema, now in his second season at Illinois. “What’s in front of us is what matters.”
Illinois (+7) at Wisconsin (11 a.m., BTN) isn’t just about a coach who used to be a real hotshot. It’s also about the struggling Badgers (2-2) and the improving Illini (3-1), who were total no-shots when these programs clashed a year ago in Champaign. The Illini mustered a pathetic 93 yards of offense, gave up 493, had their quarterback knocked out of the game and lost 24-0, a score that only hints at how one-sided it was.
“It’s not pleasant,” Bielema said then, “but we have to own it.”
And what does that look like a year later? The Illini have the nation’s leading rusher in Chase Brown (604 yards). Defensively, they’re stout against the run, unbending in the red zone and ranked No. 1 nationally in opponent passer rating (74.2). The three teams they’ve beaten — Wyoming, Virginia and Chattanooga — went home without a single touchdown.
Georgia and Alabama probably don’t have to be too scared of the Illini yet, but Wisconsin — truly unimpressive so far — must realize this is a game it could lose. How can that come about? It can if the Illini are ferocious with Badgers running back Braelon Allen, who may be even better than Brown; if they are careful against the Badgers’ ballhawking defense, which already has eight interceptions; if they can block Nick Herbig, one of the Big Ten’s most dangerous defenders.
It’s not that long a list of “ifs,” though.
“I think we’ve made strides from where we were a year ago,” Bielema said, “but that’s only going to be determined on the field.”
Hotshot? No-shots? Forget all that. Upshot: This would be a coin flip anywhere but Camp Randall. Illini — so close! — fall 21-17.
OTHER WEEK 5 PICKS
No. 4 Michigan (-10½) at Iowa (11 a.m., Fox-32): Anybody else remember that 42-3 Michigan masterpiece in last year’s Big Ten title game? Iowa’s offense was knocked back into the Stone Age and has been stuck there since, but its defense — which has scored four touchdowns — is sensational and will make Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy uncomfortable. It won’t take a lot of points to outscore the Hawkeyes, but the big strikes will be few and far between. Maize and Blue, 20-13.
No. 7 Kentucky (+7) at No. 14 Mississippi (11 a.m., ESPN): The return of running back Chris Rodriguez — an absolute star — from a month-long suspension is huge for Kentucky. Put him out there next to a legit NFL passer in Will Levis, and the Wildcats have the kind of offensive balance that’ll give them a chance against anybody in the SEC. The Rebels are fast and potentially a lot of fun, but they haven’t been in a slobberknocker yet — and a slobberknocker is what they’re going to get. ’Tuck it and run, 24-23.
No. 2 Alabama (-17) at No. 20 Arkansas (2:30 p.m., Ch. 2): Why not the Hogs? They lost by only a touchdown last year in Tuscaloosa. They have a QB in KJ Jefferson who often looks like the best player on the field. They’ve got all kinds of dudes who can play and 76,000 fans whose snouts are already filled with the glorious stench of a gigantic upset. Again, why not? Because this is exactly the sort of moment when Nick Saban’s dream-killing machine does its thing. Tide by four touchdowns.
JACKSON IS SHORT, OKLAHOMA STATE IS SHORT! BAYLOR WINS THE BIG 12! #BIG12CHAMPIONSHIP pic.twitter.com/zGMe9omhKD
— Zak (@CaramelPhd) December 4, 2021
No. 9 Oklahoma State (+2) at No. 16 Baylor (2:30 p.m., Fox-32): Baylor beat OSU by inches in last year’s Big 12 title game, stopping a last-ditch dive just short of the end-zone pylon. But did the better team win? Not by the looks of that 21-16 classic. A little payback is in order. Pokes, 21-16.
No. 22 Wake Forest (+7) at No. 23 Florida State (2:30 p.m., Ch. 7): Not saying this is the worst 4-0 Seminoles team ever, but it’s still a work in progress for the fellas in Tallahassee. If Wake could score 45 on Clemson — albeit in an overtime loss — it should be able to outmaneuver a ’Noles “D” that’s just kind of OK. Overtime again, anyone? Deacs, 38-35.
My favorite favorite: No. 5 Clemson (-6½) vs. No. 10 NC State (6:30 p.m., Ch. 7): College football wonks are super high on former Northern Illinois coach Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack squad, and that’s cool. But it took two overtimes last year for Doeren to finally beat Dabo Swinney — in his eighth try — and that was when Clemson was in an uncharacteristic rut offensively. The Tigers may not be national-title good, but the offense is singing, NFL talent still abounds and, come on, baby, this is prime time in Death Valley. Tigers roar.
My favorite underdog: Northwestern (+26½) at No. 11 Penn State (2:30 p.m., ESPN): Wait, Northwestern? What am I thinking? Here’s what: As has been the case for Wildcats teams before, it’s just plain good for them to get the heck away from Ryan Field and play some football with the pressure off. The Nittany Lions clearly are better — by a lot — but I’m not putting them up there with Ohio State and Michigan yet. Nits win, ’Cats cover.
Last week: 5-5 straight up, 4-6 vs. the spread. Look, I’m not proud of it.
Season to date: 22-13 straight up, 18-17 vs. the spread.
