Fire Kirk Ferentz!
Were Iowa fans demanding that in 1999 or 2000? Some of them probably were, though it was so long ago it’s hard to remember. Those were Ferentz’s first two seasons as the coach of the Hawkeyes, and he went 1-10 and 3-9. Predecessor Hayden Fry, whose teams had gone to six bowl games in the 1990s alone, must have turned over in his BarcaLounger.
How bad were the Hawkeyes back then? Bad enough to lose back-to-back games against Illinois. Current Illini coach Bret Bielema would know: He was Ferentz’s linebackers coach at the time.
Ferentz — now the longest-tenured coach in the FBS ranks — hasn’t lost back-to-back games to the Illini since and enjoyed a 13-1 stretch against them before a 9-6 loss last season in Champaign. If you’ve never sat through a 9-6 game, be thankful. That result makes Illinois (+3) at No. 16 Iowa (2:30 p.m., FS1, 890-AM) a chance for the 5-5 Illini not only to guarantee themselves a bowl bid but also to get a little winning streak going against their own coach’s alma mater.
Someday, scholars will study how this Hawkeyes team managed to get off to an 8-2 start despite having the bottom-ranked offense in all the land. Whereas Illinois is in the unusual position of having two quarterbacks — usual starter Luke Altmyer and recent sensation John Paddock — who seem to be fine options to lead the team Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa knows its starter is Deacon Hill and only can wince and continue to bear it. The Hawkeyes have gone 4-1 since Cade McNamara went down with a torn ACL, but Hill’s play has been about as pretty as a Berkshire pig in a backless sundress.
So which way are Bielema and offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. leaning? Altmyer presents a dual threat that might be needed against Iowa’s wicked defense, especially with Illini running backs having limped around all season. But Paddock is coming off a preposterously good 507-yard passing game. It has to be Paddock, right? Sure, maybe.
‘‘What the outside world knows doesn’t really matter to me,’’ Bielema said Thursday.
It can’t be that hard to beat these Hawkeyes, can it? They’ve yet to drive for a touchdown from their own half of the field more than once in a Big Ten game. Keep Iowa running back Lashon Williams from going off — and avoid the pick-six when your own offense is out there — and you’re pretty much guaranteed to be in it in the fourth quarter. That’s when Paddock or Altmyer and the Illini’s excellent receiving corps can win this thing. Illini, 17-16.
OTHER WEEK 12 PICKS
Purdue (-3) at Northwestern (11 a.m., BTN, 720-AM): ‘‘We want Braun!’’ Wildcats players chanted after their outstanding victory last Saturday at Wisconsin.
They’ve got their man. David Braun shed the “interim” tag once and for all, and his 5-5 squad is one victory from becoming the unlikeliest bowl-season participant in the country.
‘‘The mission isn’t done yet,’’ Braun said. ‘‘We’ve got a lot of work to do.’’
The Boilermakers (3-7) are a funny team. They looked unstoppable in blowing out Illinois and Minnesota, but the rest of the Big Ten has toyed with them. The Wildcats have to be shaking their heads at being the underdogs, as they’ve been in every game this season aside from the one against Howard of the FCS. Better team wins. Cats, 24-20.
Wake Forest (+24½) at No. 19 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM): Ohio State was quarterback Sam Hartman’s chance to lead the Irish past a premier opponent. Louisville was his chance to keep the Irish’s playoff hopes alive. Clemson was his chance to finally beat Clemson after all his losses to the Tigers while playing at Wake Forest. So now? It’s Hartman against the Demon Deacons (4-6), his old gang. Exciting? Uh, not really. Irish get to a ho-hum 8-3 with a 34-13 victory.
No. 1 Georgia (-10½) at No. 18 Tennessee (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Are the Bulldogs (10-0) unbeatable? No. Are the Volunteers (7-3) the team to prove it? Could be. Understand this: In all of college football in the last couple of seasons, nobody has a bigger gap in the quality of their performances at home vs. on the road than the Vols. A Rocky Top upset? Are we really doing this? Can it be? Dang it, not quite. Georgia, 38-35.
No. 5 Washington (+2) at No. 11 Oregon State (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Oregon State — one of two Pac-12 schools, along with Washington State — left out in the realignment cold after this season would, of course, like nothing more than to deal a crippling blow to the playoff hopes of the 10-0 Huskies. The Beavers (8-2) are tough, ticked off and talented, a tempting combo. How tempting? Cue the field-storming at Reser Stadium. Beavs, 34-31.
My favorite favorite: No. 21 Kansas State (-9½) at No. 25 Kansas (6 p.m., FS1): It defies instinct to go away from a home ’dog in a game between rivals with identical 7-3 records, but K-State is on a 14-game winning streak in this series, has won seven in a row in Lawrence by double digits and is 8-2 against the spread this season. Plus, the Jayhawks are all banged up at QB. Give the points.
My favorite underdog: Baylor (+13½) at TCU (2:30 p.m., ESPN+): The Horned Frogs (4-6) took their best shot last week in a close loss to Texas. They might not have much left for the Bears (3-7). Plus, these Bluebonnet rivalry games are always close. Take the points.
Last week: 5-3 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread.
Season to date: 59-26 straight-up, 46-35-4 against the spread.
