CHAMPAIGN — In mid-October of 2011, Illinois was 6-0 and ranked No. 16. Football fever was spreading. Rose Bowl talk was in the air. Coach Ron Zook was Bear Bryant, only slightly better.
But the magic evaporated with a 17-7 loss to Ohio State at Memorial Stadium, which was followed by a second loss at Purdue and then four more to end what became a disastrous regular season. Zook was fired, to be replaced by Tim Beckman — and you don’t need anyone to remind you how that incomprehensible hiring would pan out.
Suffice it to say, no Illini team has appeared in the Top 25 since, an 11-year drought that is — with Kansas having broken into the poll this week — the longest in the country. But Iowa (+3½) at Illinois (6:30 p.m., BTN) is a chance for that to finally change. With what likely would be a poll-crasher of a win, Illinois would get to 5-1 and end an eight-game losing streak against the Hawkeyes (3-2), who have taken the last four meetings in Champaign by a cartoonish count of 156-35.
As important as last weekend’s breakthrough win at Wisconsin was for the Illini, this one — just the third Saturday-night game here in 14 years, and with an “orange-out” in the stands — is a far bigger deal.
“We came here to be ranked,” coach Bret Bielema said. “We came here to win championships. We came here to play at the highest level.”
Bielema came here to make Illinois football relevant, which it hasn’t been in a painfully long time. It’s hard to imagine two better steps in that direction than winning back-to-back against Wisconsin, where he made his name as a head coach, and Iowa, his alma mater. We don’t talk enough about the Hawkeye tattoo on Bielema’s left calf, do we?
“A hell of an idea when you’re 19,” he said.
Tats are forever, but will the Illini’s brush with success endure? It can for another week considering Iowa’s painfully bad offense and Illinois’ ready-for-prime-time defense, which is allowing 8.4 points per game, the lowest number in all the land. But the Hawkeyes are giving up just 10 points per game and are — hands down — the best defensive team the Illini will face all season.
Iowa will ask quarterback Spencer Petras to feed tight end Sam LaPorta, do a lot of handing off and otherwise not self-inflict a debacle. Illinois will ask quarterback Tommy DeVito to make quick reads in the passing game, put the ball in the belly of outstanding running back Chase Brown and otherwise not pretend he’s Jeff George or Juice Williams. Nine Illini players have sacks this season. Eight Hawkeyes have sacks. Neither QB has a chance if he’s hesitant or greedy.
Touchdowns? We might not see any, at least by the offenses. Turnovers, penalties and special teams will tell the tale and maybe, just maybe, the fans in orange will impact a game for the first time in what feels like forever. Illini, 16-13.
OTHER WEEK 6 PICKS
No. 8 Tennessee (-3) at No. 25 LSU (11 a.m., ESPN): Brian Kelly’s Tigers put so much on QB Jayden Daniels’ shoulders in the run game, it’s hard to see him having the strength to keep pace with Vols QB Hendon Hooker and the SEC’s top passing attack for four quarters. Rocky Top, 27-20.
Oklahoma (+8½) vs. Texas (11 a.m., Ch. 7): If you’ve never been to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas for one of these affairs, trust your old pal and put it on your bucket list. But, for the first time since 1998, neither of these teams is ranked, and Oklahoma — home of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts — has rare QB troubles. Longhorns win, Sooners cover.
Wisconsin (-10½) at Northwestern (2:30 p.m., BTN): The struggling Badgers are all riled up after seeing coach Paul Chryst get fired. “I think we all have a sense of, ‘Oh, I could’ve done that better,” QB Graham Mertz said. “We need to turn that into fuel.” But the Wildcats have had Wisconsin’s number in Evanston, where they’re 4-1 head-to-head under Pat Fitzgerald. Badgers sweat it out, 24-16.
No. 11 Utah (-3½) at No. 18 UCLA (2:30 p.m., Fox-32): The Utes have a history of losing on the road against good teams, so the question of the moment: Are the Bruins legitimately good? They have been to this point, but lining up and out-toughing the Pac-12’s most physical foe might be above their pay grade. Utes — the safer pick — 30-21.
No. 16 BYU (+3½) vs. Notre Dame (6:30 p.m., Ch. 5, Peacock): The key to this Las Vegas matchup? It’s the Irish pass rush against Cougars QB Jaren Hall, a dynamic player with a knack for keeping plays alive. Get to him repeatedly, and the Irish are 3-2. Let him run around like Fran Tartkenton, and it’s 2-3 and everybody’s freaking out. Me? I’m kind of freaking out. Cougs, 24-21.
My favorite favorite: No. 17 TCU (-6½) at No. 19 Kansas (11 a.m., FS1): The Jayhawks are 5-0, which almost certainly means the world is ending, so get your bets in now. How is this happening? How devastated will the folks in Lawrence be two months hence when coach Lance Leipold leaves for a bigger, better job? Oh, by the way, the Horned Frogs are really good. TCU by 14.
My favorite underdog: Michigan State (+27½) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (3 p.m., Ch. 7): The last time the Spartans faced this big a spread was 1998, when, as 27-point underdogs, they rose up and beat the Buckeyes 28-24. Does anybody see that happening again? I don’t, either, but Sparty keeps it close enough.
Last week: 6-2 straight up, 7-1 vs. the spread.
Season to date: 28-15 straight up, 25-18 vs. the spread.
