Imagine a world in which Texas and Alabama both win Saturday, leaving each at 12-1 and with a conference championship heading into selections for the College Football Playoff. Ah, but only one spot in the four-team playoff remains! So who gets it?
It has to be the Longhorns, who won this season at Alabama. Easy, peasy, nice and neat. Right?
No, not at all. For one thing, that game was nearly three months ago. More important, if Alabama wins the mighty SEC, it will have toppled two-time defending national champion Georgia — a caliber of victory, no matter the score, to which nothing else could compare.
In this scenario, the selection committee would have a logical pick on one side in the form of the Longhorns. But it would have recency bias, and perhaps gut instinct, on the other side with the Crimson Tide. And what about one-loss Georgia? Should it be in the playoff no matter what?
Also, fans and the college football media — many of whom are cheerleaders in disguise — wouldn’t be merely asking these questions. They’d be screaming the answers to these questions, too. “It’s gotta be the ’Horns!” “It’s gotta be the Tide!” “It’s gotta be the Dawgs!” Nothing beats the intoxicating, ridiculous blend of chaos plus righteous indignation in college football.
There was no chaos last year, when every team in the playoff rankings outside of the top four had at least two losses. Notre Dame barely missed out at 11-1 in 2021, but there wasn’t all that compelling a case to be made on the Irish’s behalf. But this season has been different, with a bunch of unbeatens going into championship weekend and a few teams behind them with absolutely stellar résumés.
Let’s get to Saturday’s championship-game picks:
Big 12: No. 7 Texas (-15½) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State (11 a.m., ABC 7): Four of the Longhorns’ last six wins — against Houston, Kansas State, TCU and Iowa State — were close calls, so there’s a need to put on a show here if they can. The Cowboys (9-3) are strange and unpredictable, with a couple of lopsided losses against South Alabama and UCF sullying their accomplishments, but they have the nation’s leading rusher in Ollie Gordon II and a chance to kneecap Texas on its way out the door to the SEC. ’Horns by single digits in Arlington, Texas.
MAC: Toledo (-7½) vs. Miami (Ohio) (11 a.m., ESPN): The teams played in October, with Toledo (11-1) winning 21-17 on the road after knocking Miami’s quarterback out for the season. The RedHawks (10-2) have leaned extra-hard on their tremendous defense since, but bottling up the Rockets — who’d be 12-0 if not for a crazy fourth-and-long completion surrendered in a 30-28 loss at Illinois — is no minor feat. Rockets by 10 in Detroit.
MWC: Boise State (-2½) at UNLV (2 p.m., FOX 32): The Rebels have the better record — 9-3 vs. 7-5 — and are playing at home, so what’s with this spread? For one thing, the Broncos have been every bit as good as the Rebels judging by scores against common opponents. For another, the Broncos have been better at both rushing the passer and protecting the passer. Boise covers thanks to a couple of key fourth-quarter sacks.
SEC: No. 1 Georgia (-5½) vs. No. 8 Alabama (3 p.m., CBS 2): Georgia (12-0) is going for a 30th straight win — what a monster streak it has been — and can take its foot and shove Alabama (11-1) a bit farther from the mountaintop. But Nick Saban and the Tide aren’t in Atlanta for the chicken and biscuits; they’re there for the fight to end all fights. When these superpowers collide, everybody wins. Tide, 30-27.
AAC: SMU (+3½) at No. 22 Tulane (3 p.m., ABC 7): The Mustangs (10-2) lost their starting quarterback last week, a gut punch as they prepare to take on the Green Wave (11-1) in hostile territory. Too much uncertainty in a game this big. Tulane by a touchdown.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (+5) at Troy (3 p.m., ESPN): ASU (8-4) beat James Madison, the only Sun Belt team to top Troy, and comes in playing exceptionally well. Big edge for the Trojans (10-2), though, to be playing at home. Overtime, anyone? Trojans by three.
Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan (-21½) vs. No. 16 Iowa (7 p.m., FOX 32): Look, we can all admit that Iowa winning 10 games despite its worst-in-the-nation offense is pretty cool. Wait, did we just use “Iowa” and “cool” in the same sentence? That’s not going to be easy to live down. The Wolverines got past the pressure of Ohio State week. They have Jim Harbaugh back on the sideline. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is healthy again. Buckle up for a blowout — 34-7.
ACC: No. 4 Florida State (-1½) vs. No. 14 Louisville (7 p.m., ABC 7): The Seminoles are without QB1 Jordan Travis, which is hard enough, but QB2 Tate Rodemaker’s status was in question all week. What happens if Rodemaker can’t go? ’Noles if he plays, Cardinals if he doesn’t.
Last week: 5-3 straight up, 3-5 against the spread.
Season to date: 69-31 straight up, 51-45-4 against the spread.
