WICHITA, Kan. — At about this time last year, the Pac-12 and its new commissioner made a decision that transformed the Big 12 from prey to hunter in the world of conference realignment.
When George Kliavkoff announced that his league had no plans to add schools looking for a life boat following the surprising defections of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, the Big 12 went to work. It added BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. After ending up on the wrong end of realignment for more than a decade, the league was finally on the offensive.
Will the Big 12 stay aggressive now that the tables have turned? After all, it is suddenly one of the conferences on stable ground with a new commissioner. Will it look to raid the Pac-12 and deliver a knockout blow to that league while it scrambles to move forward without UCLA and USC, who are leaving for the Big Ten? Or will the Big 12 stand down?
Put it another way: Will the Big 12 continue hunting?
That feels like the most important question that new commissioner Brett Yormark must answer as he settles into his new role.
Topics such as scheduling formats, divisions and even the Big 12's next media rights deal (following the departures of Oklahoma and Texas in 2025) feel secondary at the moment.
Conference realignment was hardly on anyone's mind when the Big 12 announced Yormark's hire earlier this month. But things changed quickly when the Big Ten voted to accept UCLA and USC the following day.
The Big 12 has reportedly expressed interest in staying aggressive. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are obvious expansion targets. Some have suggested that the Big 12 has been in "deep discussions" with all four of those schools, plus Oregon and Washington. Others have downplayed that notion.
Whatever happens, at least no Big 12 school has to worry about the future of its conference.
For now, here's what we know. Iowa athletics director Gary Barta has publicly said that he doesn't expect the Big Ten to add new teams in the "near future." School presidents within the SEC have also reportedly decided that they have little interest in expansion for the time being.
The eye of the storm may have arrived, unless the Big 12 is ready to do something bold.
If the Big Ten and SEC truly aren't accepting new members, that leaves three potential scenarios for the next move in realignment, which could all define Yormark's early tenure with the Big 12.
1. The Big 12 looks to add Pac-12 schools
This makes sense for both parties. Absorbing more schools with a power-conference background would give the Big 12 strength in numbers. It would also give schools like Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah stable ground in a conference that is a decent geographical fit.
Heck, the Buffaloes used to be in the Big Eight and the Big 12. And BYU and Utah are longtime rivals from the Salt Lake City area.
Arizona men's basketball would fit perfectly in the Big 12. Arizona State would bring the Phoenix TV market.
If they all came aboard, the Big 12 would have a strong presence in three time zones, with the possibility for four if other Pac-12 schools (Oregon, Stanford, Washington) also expressed interest.
Travel could be an issue at times, but every school would have neighbors. Such a move would unlikely create a financial windfall for the Big 12 like retaining Oklahoma and Texas would, but it wouldn't hurt the conference's bottom line, either.
The race is on to see which conference will emerge as No. 3 behind the Big Ten and the SEC. This move could solidify the Big 12 in that slot.
2. The Pac-12 stands pat or expands
Maybe none of the Pac-12 schools are into the idea of joining the Big 12. Perhaps the Big 12 won't be able to lure any of them to the east. Who knows? Maybe the Big 12 won't even extend them a formal invitation.
No matter what happens, it's always possible the remaining Pac-12 schools will remain unified and continue to build a future together.
It's happened before several times in the Big 12. When Colorado and Nebraska left for greener pastures, the Big 12 carried on with 10 teams. When Missouri and Texas A&M left, the conference expanded with TCU and West Virginia. When Oklahoma and Texas left, the Big 12 found the best four schools available and marched on.
Killing a conference is difficult. History has taught us that much.
It's conceivable that the Pac-12 will continue as the Pac-10. It's also possible the conference will look to add nearby schools like Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, SMU or UNLV. The Pac-12 has been notoriously picky about bringing in new members that don't align with its tradition of excellent academics and success in Olympic sports, not just men's basketball and football.
But beggars can't be choosers. Maybe the Pac-12 will consider new options this time around.
The Pac-12 has already announced that it is negotiating a new media rights deal. It is also exploring expansion. Can the conference afford to do nothing for a second straight year?
The biggest problem with this plan: Oregon and Washington would likely leave for the Big Ten in a heartbeat. Of course, the same would probably be true if they were in the Big 12.
3. A new alliance between conferences
OK, so "The Alliance" that was formed between the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 last summer turned out to be moot.
But that doesn't mean it's impossible for conferences to partner in a symbiotic way.
The Big 12 would have loved to partner with the Pac-12 at this time a year ago in some form of scheduling pact or TV agreement that created more money for both conferences. Perhaps that idea could be revisited now that both leagues have lost their flagship schools.
Oklahoma State at Oregon would be a fun football matchup. Arizona at Kansas would be must-see basketball.
Together, the two conferences would dominate the western half of the country.
A merger or partnership would also provide a merciful solution for schools like California, Oregon State and Washington State, which might not be desirable targets if the Pac-12 crumbles.
So far, there has only been talk about the ACC and Pac-12 forming a loose partnership in which they would share media rights, schedule juicy crossover football games and potentially play a championship game every year in Las Vegas.
But it's difficult to see how such an arrangement would significantly help the ACC.
Nevertheless, the ACC and Pac-12 are all that remains in "The Alliance." It makes sense they would look to help each other, if the Big 12 can't get involved.
