Support for President Joe Biden among key voting groups appears to be slipping as the 2024 presidential election year unfolds, according to a recent Suffolk University USA Today poll. The survey reveals that Biden's support among black voters has dropped to 63%, a significant decline from the 86% he received in 2020. Additionally, the poll indicates that former President Donald Trump is now leading among Hispanic voters and young people.
The Biden campaign aims to reverse these numbers by launching attacks against Trump, framing him as a threat to democracy. In commemoration of the third anniversary of the January 6th assault on the U.S. Capitol, President Biden delivered a speech in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, highlighting the dangers posed by extremist movements that reject the foundations of democracy. The president also released his first television ad for the 2024 campaign.
Pollster Doug Schoen, an adviser to President Bill Clinton and Michael Bloomberg's 2020 presidential campaign, analyzes the situation. He attributes the decline in support for Biden to widespread dissatisfaction with the president's overall job performance, particularly in the areas of the economy and ongoing international conflicts. Schoen believes that these factors, combined with the hemorrhaging of support among core groups like African-Americans and younger voters, make Biden's re-election prospects uncertain.
The poll's findings are striking, especially regarding the decline in support from African-American voters. Historically, no Democratic president has been able to win with support among African-Americans in the 60s. The shift in Hispanic voter support towards Trump indicates additional concerns beyond general dissatisfaction. Hispanic voters tend to prioritize traditional values and are often staunchly anti-communist. Many of them have immigrated from Latin American countries and favor secure borders and adherence to legal immigration processes.
Despite attempts to highlight Biden's economic policies, known as Bidenomics, as a strength, the strategy seems to have backfired politically, failing to resonate with voters. As a result, the campaign has switched to portraying Trump as a threat to democracy, relying on negative messaging to discredit the former president. Schoen suggests that while positive arguments in favor of Biden have proven ineffective, running against aspects of Trump's record and personal behavior might be the campaign's only chance at securing Biden's re-election.
This strategy deviates from the typical approach of incumbent candidates who often emphasize their record of success. However, the Biden campaign hopes to make the 2024 election a choice between two options, one of which they paint as far worse than their own. The polls currently indicate a relatively close race, with a three to four-point lead for Trump nationally and in swing states. Nevertheless, Trump's impending criminal trials and allegations regarding his personal behavior provide ammunition for Biden's campaign to run against him.
If Republican voters nominate a different candidate, it could present a curveball for the Biden campaign. While Trump leads in the polls, it's essential to note that no votes have been cast yet, leaving room for surprises. Schoen suggests that Biden's chances of victory would be higher if facing Trump as the Republican nominee, as other potential candidates like Nikki Haley would likely pose a greater challenge to the president's re-election bid.
In the coming months, it remains to be seen how the dynamics of the 2024 election race will evolve, the candidates' strategies, and the issues that will shape voters' decisions.
