President Joe Biden’s scheduled call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday will not simply test the leaders’ increasingly sour relationship. It will also highlight a glaring contradiction in US policy toward the war in Gaza, a conflict that potentially poses an existential threat to both of their political careers.
While Biden is expressing growing frustration about the Israeli leader’s conduct of the military onslaught and its impact on civilians – including the killing of seven aid workers in Gaza this week – the fundamentals of staunch US support for Israel are not shifting. The administration is moving toward approving a sale of F-15 warplanes to Israel worth $18 billion, sources told CNN this week.
The Biden-Netanyahu call, scheduled after the killing of the aid workers, will come amid renewed fears in Washington that Israel’s actions could spark the regional conflagration that Biden has been desperate to avoid. The conversation will also take place with both leaders under enormous domestic pressure and amid signs their political priorities are irreconcilable.
Biden badly needs the war to end to ease anger among progressives that is threatening his weakened political coalition ahead of November’s election. But Netanyahu may need to prolong it to stave off elections many US leaders believe he would lose. The crisis could end up driving both of them out of office.
The backdrop to the call is US fury over the killings of seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen in an Israeli strike in Gaza. Biden accused Israel of doing too little to protect civilians and aid workers in the devastated enclave. The White House is insisting there has been no change in its policy of supporting its ally in its response to Hamas terror attacks.
US policy is looking increasingly ineffective and at odds with itself. There is no evidence that months of signals of increasing frustration with Netanyahu and calls for Israel to do more to protect civilians are having any impact. The US strategy of pushing for a new temporary ceasefire and release of Israeli hostages by Hamas has produced few concrete results.
The disconnect in US policy was encapsulated by José Andrés, founder of World Central Kitchen, who highlighted the complexity of the situation. Events of recent weeks suggest that either Biden lacks leverage over Netanyahu or is unwilling to use it.
Israel’s growing isolation may explain swift statements from Netanyahu and other top officials admitting that the attack on the aid workers was a mistake. In the US, Biden is paying a steep political price for his forbearance of Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is teetering, with calls for new elections in September. The biggest demonstrations against the Israeli leader since the start of the war are fueled by relatives of more than 100 Israelis held hostage or unaccounted for in Gaza.
The risk now is that Iran could respond more robustly due to the visibility and symbolism of the Damascus attack. There is concern in Washington that Iran could use its proxy groups against Americans.
Some US observers believe Iran’s options are limited. The situation remains tense, with the potential for further escalation in the region.
