When U.S. and Russian negotiators first shook hands on a comprehensive arms control deal in 2010 that put stiff limits on the nuclear stockpiles of the world’s two biggest atomic powers, the White House saw signs of a thaw in the post-Cold War relationship. Before the ink was even dry on the New START treaty, both sides had set up an expansive bilateral commission to iron out almost every aspect of ties. Then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev even munched on burgers and split an order of french fries in a Virginia parking lot.
But more than a decade later, even though the Biden administration and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top deputies in the Kremlin are optimistic about a follow-up nuclear deal, there’s little hope for any breaking of bread or clinking of glasses. As the U.S. State Department plots its negotiating strategy with the Russians ahead of an expected follow-up arms control talk after U.S. President Joe Biden’s meeting with Putin in Geneva last week, the talks are increasingly seen as less of a new start and merely a new starting point for a diminished relationship where the two sides can agree on avoiding nuclear war—but perhaps little else.
