As U.S. President-elect Joe Biden may well be discovering as he prepares to take office, the Eastern Mediterranean is far from a tranquil place. In the Aegean, Turkish and Greek warships eye each other nervously, while on Cyprus, a decadeslong peace process seeking to reunite Turkish and Greek Cypriots is in danger of collapse after Turkey advocated a formal division of the island into two states in October. Adding fuel to that fire is a long and unresolved wrangle over maritime and hydrocarbon rights between Cyprus and Turkey, which has pulled in international oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Total, and Cyprus’s Eastern Mediterranean neighbors Israel and Egypt.
As tensions have grown over the past year, the United States has largely taken a pass on its traditional regional role as referee, arbiter, and occasional carrier of a big stick. Yet that may be about to change. The election of “Joe Bidenopoulos”—as he once introduced himself to a group of Greek Americans—has come as music to the ears of Greeks and Greek Cypriots looking for stronger U.S. support in their disputes with Turkey. But despite Biden’s tough rhetoric on Turkey, it remains a key nation in this strategically vital region. Come January, when he is set to take office, the president-elect will have to weigh a range of interests in navigating the Eastern Mediterranean’s sea of troubles—and reining in Ankara may not be his greatest priority.
