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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Kari Paul (now), Gloria Oladipo and Joan E Greve (earlier)

‘Enormous consequences’ if Ukraine is invaded, Biden says – as it happened

Joe Biden speaks with media
Joe Biden speaks to the media. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/AP

Today's summary

That’s all from me for the night! Here are the latest updates to keep in mind.

  • Nancy Pelosi is running for Congress again, but hasn’t said if she plans to remain speaker of the House.
  • Biden plans to host auto executives at the White House on Wednesday to advance his plans of increasing environmentally friendly and electric vehicles.
  • A New York judge has granted a stay to a ruling against the state’s mask mandate keeping it in place for now.
  • A Michigan judge has declined to dismiss charges against five men accused of plotting to kidnap governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Updated

Judge refuses to dismiss case against suspects accused of governor’s kidnapping plot

A federal judge has declined to dismiss charges against five men accused of plotting to kidnap and kill Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

US district judge Robert Jonker said in a filing that the suspects’ claims of entrapment and government overreaching a “heavy burden to carry”.

The accused would need to prove government agents induced them to commit crimes and that they were not “predisposed” to commit the crimes charged.

“Defendants fail to carry their burden because the evidence on both issues is decidedly disputed as it almost inevitably is at this stage of the case,” he wrote.

The five men are battling charges while a sixth pleaded guilty and is serving a six-year, federal prison sentence.

Updated

New York’s mask policy back in effect after judge grants stay

New York’s mask mandate will stay in place - for now- after a judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked a lower-court ruling that would overturn the policy.

The judge approved a motion from state attorney Letitia James to keep the rule in effect while a decision made Monday to strike down the mask mandate is appealed.

“Nearly three years into the COVID-19 pandemic, we know that wearing a mask saves lives,” James said in a statement. “This mandate and today’s decision are critical in helping to stop the spread of this virus and protect individuals young and old.”

Monday’s decision sparked confusion across the state, where previously residents were required to wear masks in a number of places - including schools, public transportation, and other indoor locations.

Under Tuesdays reversal, the mandate will stay in effect until the Appellate court takes further action.

“We will continue to do everything in our power to prioritize the health and wellbeing of all New Yorkers,” James said.

National Covid deaths are at their highest in the past year

Even as new cases from the Omciron surge level out, daily Covid deaths in the US are now at highest level in almost a year, according to Johns Hopkins figures published Tuesday.

The number of reported Covid-19 deaths reached a seven-day average of 2,191 per day by Monday, up about 1,000 from pre-Omicron daily death counts two months ago.

A report from the Wall Street Journal puts those numbers into perspective:

The U.S. saw the highest numbers of deaths in the pandemic about a year ago, before vaccines were widely available, when the daily average reached 3,400. More recently, the Delta variant triggered a peak just above 2,100 in late September. Omicron has since muscled Delta aside and now accounts for nearly every known Covid-19 case, the CDC has estimated. The seven-day death average last topped the current level in February 2021, as the U.S. recovered from last winter’s surge.

Fallout from the Omicron surge has continued across the United States. In Los Angeles, for example, the county reported 102 COVID-19 deaths on Thursday - the most fatalities it has seen in one day since 10 March 2021.

Biden to host chief executives of auto and tech companies at White House

As part of his goal for 50% of new US vehicles to be electric or plug-in electric hybrid by 2030, Joe Biden will host auto and tech executives at the White House on Wednesday.

To discuss Biden’s Build Back Better legislation, the following will take part: General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley, Salesforce co-CEO Marc Benioff, Microsoft President Brad Smith, Etsy CEO Josh Silverman, Siemens Corp CEO Barbara Humpton and Corning CEO Wendell Weeks.

The legislation, pushed by Biden in December, includes billions of dollars to tackle climate change and boost electric vehicles along with money for universal preschool, paid family leave and other social safety net spending.

A White House official said Biden “will meet with CEOs who support passing Build Back Better to discuss the ways his [BBB] agenda will make the US economy more competitive, increase worker productivity and workforce participation, lower inflation over the long-term, and strengthen business growth.”

Updated

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to seek re-election to Congress

US House speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Tuesday evening she plans to seek re-election as a representative of California, continuing her 30-year run in Congress.

On her Twitter account, Pelosi said that despite progress being made “much more needs to be done to improve people’s lives”.

Pelosi, 81, was the first woman speaker of the House. She served first from 2007 to 2011, and her current term began in 2019.

She did not indicate in her announcement whether she would again run for speaker, as Democrats brace for the possible loss of its majority in the 8 November midterm elections.

In 2018 she indicated the role would be turned over to new leadership and that this term would be her last.

Updated

Hello readers! Kari Paul here, the Guardian’s West Coast tech correspondent, covering the blog for the next few hours. Stay tuned for updates.

Summary

A busy day in US politics continues, with a focus on international news as tension continues to rise over Russia’s threatening conduct towards Ukraine. There’s plenty of domestic news, too, and our west coast colleague Kari Paul will take you through all further developments.

Here’s where things stand:

  • Joe Biden will welcome Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the ruler of the small Persian Gulf state of Qatar, in Washington, DC, on Monday amid talks among allies on how to ensure energy supplies to Europe if Ukraine is invaded by Russia.
  • There will be “enormous consequences” for Russia if Ukraine is invaded, the US president said this afternoon.
  • White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that officials from the state department and the Pentagon will hold two classified briefings with lawmakers today to provide updates on the situation in Ukraine.
  • The US has helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut.
  • Biden considers US options on Ukraine as west seeks united front while Vladimir Putin considers an invasion and builds up his troop presence along the border.

Qatar's emir to visit Washington on Monday

Joe Biden will welcome Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the ruler of the small Persian Gulf state of Qatar, in Washington, DC, on Monday amid talks among allies on how to ensure energy supplies to Europe if Ukraine is invaded by Russia, which then cuts of its substantial gas supplies to the west.

The US president and the Qatari emir are also expected to discuss Taliban control and the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and nuclear tensions with Iran.

Joe Biden greets US Marines outside the Marine Barracks as he makes a surprise walk down Barracks Row in Washington, DC, this afternoon. Biden also did a spot of shopping at small business ‘Honey Made’ in the District.
Joe Biden greets US Marines outside the Marine Barracks as he makes a surprise walk down Barracks Row in Washington, DC, this afternoon. Biden also did a spot of shopping at small business ‘Honey Made’ in the District. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Reuters further reports:

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani’s visit, the first since Biden took office a year ago, comes as Washington discusses with energy-producing states and firms a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the matter with the foreign minister of Qatar, a top liquefied natural gas producer, in a phone call on Monday, a source told the news agency.

Washington is concerned that a possible Russian military assault on Ukraine could trigger U.S. and European sanctions on Moscow, which would then halt the delivery of Russian gas to Europe. Russia denies it plans to attack Ukraine.

Global gas supplies are already tight and Qatar Energy’s shipments are locked into long-term supply contracts which the company cannot easily break.

Sheikh Tamim’s visit aims to build on relations with ally Washington that have strengthened since Doha hosted talks that led to the 2020 deal for U.S. troops to pull out of Afghanistan, and played a pivotal role in evacuation efforts during the U.S. withdrawal. Qatar has also become the U.S. diplomatic representative in Afghanistan, now under Islamist Taliban rule.

Qatar and Turkey are in negotiations with the Taliban administration to manage operations at Kabul’s international airport, the landlocked country’s main international airlink.
Sheikh Tamim and Biden are also expected to discuss efforts by global powers to salvage a 2015 nuclear pact with Iran, with which Doha has ties, as well as efforts to end the Yemen war, the sources said.

Nato solidarity should be maintained and built upon in the approach to Russia’s aggressive build-up of troops on the Ukrainian border amid fears of an invasion, the Guardian writes in an editorial today.

US Delivers Military Hardware To Ukraine. A plane prepares to unload weapons delivered by the US military at Boryspil Airport near Kyiv, Ukraine, earlier today.
US Delivers Military Hardware To Ukraine. A plane prepares to unload weapons delivered by the US military at Boryspil Airport near Kyiv, Ukraine, earlier today. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Loud signaling about solidarity actually gives further clues about division among the allies, our team writes, following Joe Biden’s recent gaffe when he suggested Nato differences over how to respond in the event of a “minor incursion” of Ukraine’s territory.

But now there are signs that the allies are moving closer. Here is the article:

The US president’s need to state on Monday that there is “total unanimity” over how to deal with the Ukraine crisis, like the video call with European leaders which preceded it, was itself evidence of ongoing differences among western allies. There is no dispute about the threat: more than 100,000 Russian troops are now massed near Ukraine’s borders. The US has put 8,500 troops on standby to deploy to Europe to reinforce allies there, while Nato has reinforced its eastern borders with warships and fighter jets. A senior US official briefed on Tuesday that in the event of an invasion, sanctions will “start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there”.

In addition to the clear deterrent message, talks continue: Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff, will meet French, German and Ukrainian officials in Paris on Wednesday, in the “Normandy format”. Set against that, Russia paid little price for the annexation of Crimea and fomenting the separatist uprising in the Donbas region in 2014. There is a credible case that Russia is set on a major military offensive – not merely pursuing coercive diplomacy – and that it is in Moscow’s interests to act before Kyiv receives further arms shipments. Above all, there is at present no visible off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. The very thing he says Russia must counter – Nato’s presence in eastern Europe – is growing because of his own actions. He might take an exit; it’s harder to see him beating a retreat.

So the risks are high and rising. But an attack on Ukraine is not inevitable. French officials have indicated that they regard recent US and UK briefing as alarmist; Kyiv itself is notably more cautious. An analysis by the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian thinktank, says a full-scale invasion capturing most of the country in the next few months seems unlikely, given current Russian troop formations. But it also suggests that “hybrid invasion” is already being implemented, citing the recent cyber-attack. Moscow may believe that such methods, along with cross-border missile strikes, sabotage and political meddling, might be enough to effect a change of government. (The EU offer of €1.2bn in emergency financial assistance is designed to reduce pressure on Kyiv.)

What price would Russia pay? Its markets have already tanked; and it appears to have amassed a cash stockpile in preparation for sanctions. It believes its control of gas supplies give it asymmetric leverage, especially given Europe’s cost of living crisis. And it may count on distraction and disunity in the west. The stepping up of US rhetoric is in part an attempt to compensate for Joe Biden’s gaffe suggesting Nato division over how to respond to a “minor incursion”. Excitable UK briefing over the weekend comes as the prime minister hopes for people to look beyond his domestic woes. Germany, from history, principle (established policy against arms sales to war zones) and pragmatism (it gets more than half of its gas from Russia), is strikingly more muted; uncertainty persists over how far it would go, especially over the NordStream 2 gas pipeline.

Nonetheless, there are signs that the allies are moving closer after Monday’s call – US coordination with Qatar and other suppliers to address the energy shortfall is helpful – and are certainly more united than in 2014. The drumbeat of war is concentrating minds and encouraging solidarity. That must now be maintained and built upon.

Updated

More on Representative Jim Cooper announcing his retirement today: Cooper previously decried gerrymandering efforts in Tennessee, noting that the attempts of Tennessee Republicans to divide Nashville could cost him his seat.

In an interview with CNN last year about Tennessee GOP wanting to break up the Nashville district, Cooper said: “They couldn’t beat me fairly...So, now they’re trying to beat me by gerrymandering.”

Cooper also noted during that interview: “It’s not about me...It’s about the political future of Nashvillians. And they deserve their own voice, regardless of who is their congressman.”

Read the article and Cooper’s previous comments here.

Updated

Tennessee representative Jim Cooper, who has served the House for over 30 years, has announced that he will not seek reelection after saying there is “no way” he would win his seat given new congressional maps created by state Republicans.

Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville, announces his victory during the Democratic watch party at the Loews Vanderbilt Hotel, in Nashville, Tenn.
Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville, announces his victory during the Democratic watch party at the Loews Vanderbilt Hotel, in Nashville, Tenn. Photograph: Andrew Nelles/AP

Cooper, a democrat, has represented the 5th congressional district of Nashville since 2003, also serving in the House from 1983 to 1995 as a moderate Democrat.

Cooper’s announcement came only one day after a new congressional map was approved by Tennessee’s General Assembly, which would split Nashville, a Democrat-leaning city, three ways.

The map still needs final approval by Republican governor Bill Lee.

“I cannot thank the people of Nashville enough,” said Cooper in a statement. “You backed me more than almost anyone in Tennessee history, making me the state’s 3rd longest-serving member of Congress.”

Cooper also criticized GOP state lawmakers for creating the map that would divide Nashville despite ongoing appeals to keep the city whole.

“There’s no way, at least for me in this election cycle, but there may be a path for other worthy candidates,” said Cooper.

Cooper is the 29th Democrat to announce they will not be seeking reelection in what could spell disaster for congressional democrats come midterms.

Updated

Biden has made additional comments concerning a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russia, clarifying that the US has no plans to send troops to Ukraine, but saying that he would oversee sanctions against Russia.

When reporters asked Biden if he could see himself personally sanctioning Putin over an invasion of Ukraine, Biden said: “Yes, I would see that.”

Biden has also said that he isn’t certain if Putin will actually invade Ukraine, adding that, “I don’t think even his people know for certain,” comparing the status of a potential invasion to “reading tea leaves.”

Updated

US officials are considering a range of financial options that could be used as punishment if Russia invades Ukraine.

Here is an explainer of some options being considered by the US, written by the Associated Press’ Ellen Knickmeyer:

  • SWIFT RETALIATION

For the U.S. and its European allies, cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system, which shuffles money from bank to bank around the globe, would be one of the toughest financial steps they could take, damaging Russia’s economy immediately and in the long term. The move could cut Russia off from most international financial transactions, including international profits from oil and gas production, which in all accounts for more than 40% of the country’s revenue...

  • DOLLAR CLEARING

The United States already holds one of the most powerful financial weapons to wield against Putin if he invades Ukraine — blocking Russia from access to the U.S. dollar...

  • EXPORT CONTROLS

White House press secretary Jen Psaki has confirmed that the U.S. is considering imposing export controls — potentially cutting off Russia from the high tech that helps warplanes and passenger jets fly and makes smartphones smart, along with the other software and advanced electronic gear that make the modern world run...

Read the full article here.

Biden says 'enormous consequences' for Russia if Ukraine is invaded

Amid ongoing discussion of the developing situation in Ukraine, Joe Biden has made comments today about the significance of a possible invasion.

“It would be the largest invasion since World War II,” Biden said of a possible Ukraine invasion by Russia. “It would change the world.”

Biden added that there would be “enormous consequences” for Russia if an invasion were to take place, also noting that US troops could be moving to Europe in the “near term” but won’t be in Ukraine.

More details to come.

Updated

In other news, Officer Eugene Goodman, one of the attending officers who faced off with rioters during the 6 January Capitol attack, has spoken publicly for the first since the failed insurrection.

Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman arrives in the Crypt of the US Capitol for President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony on Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021 in Washington.
Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman arrives in the Crypt of the US Capitol for President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony on Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021 in Washington. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/AP

Speaking on an episode of “3 Brothers No Sense” podcast, Goodman spoke on his experiences that day, including navigating fame after many found out that Goodman had successfully prevented rioters from entering the Senate chambers, allowing senators and their staff to evacuate.

“In any situation like that, you desperately want to de-escalate but at the same time, you want to survive first ... It could have easily been a bloodbath,” said Goodman.

“So kudos to everybody there that showed a measure of restraint with regards to deadly force because it could have been bad. Really, really bad.”

In addition to discussing how he has generally navigated his increased profile, Goodman also shared a funny anecdote about attempting to get merchandise that had his image on it: “I actually saw a guy with a sweatshirt and I tried to buy one and he tried to charge [me]. I said, “this dude gonna charge me for my own face?’ That’s funny.”

The full podcast episode is available here.

Today so far

Here’s where the day stands so far:

  • The US and its allies are preparing for potential conflict in Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin considers an invasion and builds up his troop presence along the border. Joe Biden held a virtual meeting with European leaders yesterday to discuss the situation in Ukraine and potential responses to Russian aggression. “I had a very, very, very good meeting – total unanimity with all the European leaders,” Biden told reporters.
  • The US is finalizing plans to divert natural gas to Europe in the event that Russia cuts off its supply to neighboring countries. Russia has already started restricting the flow of natural gas through the pipeline running through Ukraine, but US officials have said they are confident in plans to compensate for any further supply reduction to European allies.
  • The Biden administration will hold two more classified briefings with members of Congress today to provide updates on the situation in Ukraine. The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said state department and Pentagon officials would brief House and Senate leadership and committee staff today, with plans to hold all-member briefings in the coming days.

The blog will have more coming up, so stay tuned.

As press secretary Jen Psaki held her daily briefing to take questions about Ukraine, defense secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, were spotted leaving the White House after spending more than two hours there.

A CBS News producer also saw secretary of state Antony Blinken arriving at the White House about an hour ago:

Joe Biden does not have anything on his official White House schedule today, as the president likely receives briefings on the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s troop buildup along the border.

Asked about Biden’s plans for the day, Psaki said the president had some policy meetings this morning and will review a speech later today, while acknowledging he may be spending some time in the Situation Room as well.

Biden administration to hold classified briefings on Ukraine for lawmakers

White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that officials from the state department and the Pentagon will hold two classified briefings with lawmakers today to provide updates on the situation in Ukraine.

“Today, we are providing two additional classified bipartisan briefings for House and Senate leadership and committee staff,” Psaki said.

“They’ll be providing updates on recent developments with Ukraine and Russia and the state of play. We’re also working on all-members briefings for the House and the Senate in the coming days.”

Psaki noted that secretary of state Antony Blinken and deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman have spoken to nearly 20 members of Congress in the past week, and they plan to have more conversations with lawmakers in the next few days.

The White House has also had “dozens of engagements with Congress” to discuss Ukraine’s security situation since December, Psaki added.

The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, was asked about whether the Biden administration has any plans to unilaterally deploy US troops to Ukraine amid concerns of a potential Russian invasion.

Psaki said the White House is focused on working with Nato to “plus up support” in allied eastern European countries as part of a coalition effort.

“Just to be clear, there is no intention or interest or desire by the president to send troops to Ukraine,” Psaki said. “Nato is a forum to support our eastern flank partners and countries, and that’s what the focus has been on.”

Psaki’s comments come one day after the Pentagon said 8,500 US troops had been placed on heightened alert to deploy to Ukraine if necessary.

A reporter asked Jen Psaki about the Biden administration’s work to divert natural gas to Europe in case Russia cuts off its supply in response to escalating tensions over Ukraine.

Psaki said the US is in communication with a “range of countries and partners” to discuss potential gas shortages in Europe, but she would not provide specific details on those talks.

The press secretary did note that officials are discussing how best to use existing energy stockpiles in Europe while also working to identify other potential sources of natural gas to prevent shortages.

The Guardian’s Julian Borger reports that US officials are now confident Europe will not suffer from a sudden loss of energy if Russia cuts off its supply to nearby countries:

The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, is now holding her daily briefing with reporters, and she opened her remarks by announcing Joe Biden spoke to New York City Mayor Eric Adams last night.

Psaki said Biden offered his condolences to Adams over the shooting of two New York police officers on Friday night, which resulted in the death of Officer Jason Rivera.

Biden also emphasized his administration’s commitment to serving as a “strong federal partner” in the fight against gun violence in New York and other major cities, Psaki said.

Speaking in his home state of Kentucky, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell said the Biden administration is “moving in the right direction” with its response to Russia’s troop buildup along Ukraine’s border.

“They’re prepared to take steps before an incursion and not afterwards,” McConnell said, per NBC News.

Republican Todd Young, a member of the Senate foreign relations committee, also argued that the White House needs to be proactive in responding to Russian aggression.

“I think whatever can be done to establish deterrence needs to done in short order,” Young told Punchbowl News this morning.

Staff turnover in the Biden administration is nowhere near what it was under Donald Trump, when senior aides came and went as through a revolving door in a hurricane.

Ron Klain.
Ron Klain. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Nonetheless, the press always likes a bit of speculation about who might be in and who might be out, and here comes the Washington Post with an exhaustive examination of how Ron Klain, Joe Biden’s chief of staff, has not had the smoothest first year in the job.

The piece is based on interviews with “more than 60 White House and administration officials, Cabinet secretaries, members of Congress and other Klain associates”.

In one of the kinder comments about Klain’s year in a role which Trump filled four times in four years, the Connecticut senator Richard Blumenthal told the paper: “I think that, by and large, he’s making the trains run on time – even though some of the boxcars may seem to be empty some of the time.”

Blumenthal might’ve been alluding to supply chain problems, among various crises (Covid, Ukraine, the assault on US democracy, the fallout from calling a Fox News reporter a “stupid son of a bitch”) which have dogged Biden’s first year.

But the Post piece focused on the damage to Biden, and thus to Klain, from protracted and mostly failed negotiations with the president’s own party on Capitol Hill, in particular over domestic spending and voting rights reform, both high-profile failures.

The Post said many Democrats complained progressives had been given too much weight, one saying Klain had created “a monster” by empowering Pramila Jayapal, the leader of House progressives. (Adhering to rather endearing American newspaper norms, the Post said that source used “an expletive to underscore the point”.)

Jayapal countered: “If he empowered us, it was because we were pushing the president’s agenda.”

The paper also spoke to Klain. He, it reported, “appeared to acknowledge that playing an inside-Washington game had been problematic for Biden in his first year, creating an image that the president spends most of his time in political negotiations.

“Klain vowed that Biden would spend more time on the road in 2022, interacting with Americans and showcasing his trademark style of backslapping empathy.”

There is of course much more in the piece. If you like that sort of thing, it’s here.

Updated

A bipartisan congressional delegation is leaving today for Brussels, Belgium, and Kyiv, Ukraine, to hold discussions on Russia’s troop buildup along Ukraine’s border.

The delegation is led by Democrat Gregory Meeks, the chair of the House foreign relations committee, and it includes David Cicilline, Ami Bera, Colin Allred, Chrissy Houlahan, Tom Malinowski, Sara Jacobs, Mark Green, August Pfluger, Mikie Sherill and Victoria Spartz.

“In Brussels, the delegation will meet with representatives from NATO, the EU, and NATO and EU member states to discuss the security situation in Eastern Europe and the buildup of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border and in Belarus,” the House foreign relations committee said in a statement.

“In Kyiv, the delegation will meet with senior Ukrainian officials to discuss the security situation and reinforce U.S. support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

A bipartisan group of senators participated in a congressional delegation to Ukraine last week, and the lawmakers met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other senior officials.

Republican Tod Young, a member of the Senate foreign relations committee, was asked whether he believes Joe Biden should send US troops to eastern Europe.

“Without delay,” Young told Punchbowl News. “I think whatever can be done to establish deterrence needs to done in short order.”

Young said Vladimir Putin’s “unpredictable” leadership style made it unclear when an invasion might occur, so the US must take the opportunity to arm Ukrainian troops and properly position its own forces in neighboring allied countries.

“I think that is prudent, rather than waiting until after the fact,” Young said.

US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply

The US has helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut, in a bid to blunt Vladmir Putin’s most powerful economic weapon.

As fears of an invasion of Ukraine have grown, US officials said on Tuesday that they have been negotiating with global suppliers, and they are now confident that Europe would not suffer from a sudden loss of energy for heating in the middle of winter.

Russia has already restricted the flow of natural gas through the pipeline running through Ukraine from about about 100 million cubic metres a day to 50 MCM, US officials said. Washington now estimates that almost all of that can be replaced quickly if the pipeline is cut deliberately or as a result of conflict.

“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior official said.

Read the Guardian’s full report:

During the White House briefing yesterday, a reporter asked press secretary Jen Psaki whether Joe Biden believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent.

The reporter pointed to the Pentagon’s announcement that 8,500 US troops would be put on heightened alert to deploy if necessary as potential evidence of an escalating threat.

“While we can’t get into the mind of President Putin, we are seeing the preparations that they’re making at the border,” Psaki replied. “We have been very clear and the president has been direct that military action by Russia could come at any time. He said that last week as well.”

Another reporter tried to get a more concrete answer from Psaki, asking whether Biden is more or less concerned about an invasion of Ukraine after the events of this weekend.

“He said last week that military action by Russia could come at any time. That remains his point of view,” Psaki replied.

The manager of an exclusive New York City restaurant insisted it was focused on the safety of its guests, after the former Alaska governor and Republican vice-presidential pick Sarah Palin dined there despite not being vaccinated against Covid-19.

Sarah Palin.
Sarah Palin. Photograph: Joshua Roberts/Reuters

New York City laws require proof of vaccination for indoor dining.

The city government said Palin should “follow the rules just like everyone else”.

Palin tested positive repeatedly on Monday, delaying the start of her defamation trial against the New York Times in Manhattan federal court.

Palin, who also tested positive in March last year, has said she will not get vaccinated.

In December, she told a conservative audience in Phoenix: “It’ll be over my dead body that I’ll have to get a shot. I will not do that. I won’t do it, and they better not touch my kids either.”

In a statement, Luca Guaitolini, manager of Elio’s, the restaurant on the Upper East Side, responded to the news Palin was seen eating there on Saturday.

“We are taking this isolated incident – and unfortunate oversight – very seriously,” Guaitolini said. “Elio’s adheres to and believes in the vaccine mandate, and all it is doing to protect our staff, regulars and the dining public.”

Guaitolini said he was not working on Saturday. He told the Times first-time diners were checked but Palin dined with an unidentified “regular”.

“She probably just walked in and strolled over” to the table, Guaitolini said. “We are trying to get to the bottom of this.”

In case you missed it yesterday: Joe Biden got frustrated with a Fox News reporter who pressed him on how inflation may negatively impact Democrats’ midterm prospects.

The president was hosting a meeting with his White House Competition Council to discuss his administration’s efforts to lower prices as US inflation increases at the highest rate seen in decades.

Reporters were present for the start of the event, and as they were escorted out, a few of them shouted questions at Biden about Ukraine, which the president mostly ignored.

One reporter, Peter Doocy of Fox News, said, “Will you take questions on inflation then? Do you think inflation is a political liability ahead of the midterms?”

Biden, seemingly unaware that he could still be heard, then said to his advisers, “No, it’s a great asset. More inflation. What a stupid son of a bitch.”

The remark certainly attracted some attention on social media, and Biden later called Doocy to apologize, per CNN:

Russia’s aggressive buildup near Ukraine energised Nato into sending more forces to eastern Europe on Monday and led to a plunge on Russian markets, raising the stakes on the Kremlin’s bet that it could cajole, extort or force Ukraine into submission.

For Moscow it has become more difficult to pull back from its aggressive stance after US and Nato announcements that more troops would be deployed to the military alliance’s eastern flank.

A unilateral drawdown now would leave the Kremlin a clear loser in the standoff, having provoked a strengthening of the very Nato presence that it had sought to banish from eastern Europe.

Moscow has blamed the west for rising tensions and the chaos on Russian financial markets. “We are observing statements published by the North Atlantic Alliance about an enlargement of the contingent and the deployment of forces and hardware to the eastern flank. All that leads to the further escalation of tensions,” claimed Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, on Monday.

Vladimir Putin does still have the option to turn back. An about-face would be embarrassing and make the west less likely to listen to his warnings in the future. But he would face little domestic blowback from ordering a drawdown and could claim he had taken the first step to avoid a devastating conflict.

Shortly after his virtual meeting with European leaders, Joe Biden told reporters that the US and its allies are on the same page when it comes to Ukraine.

“I had a very, very, very good meeting – total unanimity with all the European leaders,” Biden said after the meeting, which lasted about an hour and 20 minutes.

In London, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office echoed that sentiment, saying “the leaders agreed on the importance of international unity in the face of growing Russian hostility.”

“The leaders agreed that, should a further Russian incursion into Ukraine happen, allies must enact swift retributive responses including an unprecedented package of sanctions,” Downing Street said.

Read the Guardian’s full report:

Biden considers US options on Ukraine as west seeks united front

Greetings from Washington, live blog readers.

Joe Biden is preparing for potential conflict in Ukraine as Russian President Vladimir Putin considers an invasion and builds up his troop presence along the border.

The department of defense spokesperson, John Kirby, said yesterday that the US has placed 8,500 troops on heightened alert to deploy if necessary. The White House is also urging Americans in Ukraine to consider leaving the country.

Meanwhile, Biden held a virtual meeting with some of his European counterparts yesterday to discuss “their continued concern about the Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders”.

“The leaders underscored their shared desire for a diplomatic resolution to the current tensions and reviewed recent engagements with Russia in multiple formats,” the White House said in its readout of the meeting.

“The leaders also discussed their joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank.”

So all eyes are on the Ukrainian border as Putin considers whether to move forward. The blog will have more coming up, so stay tuned.

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