President Joe Biden's approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his presidency, despite a few weeks of relative good news for Democrats.
Gas prices have been falling. Biden announced the drone-strike killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. Kansas voters soundly rejected a referendum to remove the right of abortion from the state constitution. Congress approved legislation to boost domestic chip manufacturing and care for Iraq and Afghanistan veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. Now Biden stands on the cusp of his biggest legislative victory, tackling climate change and prescription drug prices. Even the stock market has been rallying.
None of that has yet to make the least bit of difference in Biden's political standing, the new IBD/TIPP Poll finds.
Biden's approval rating fell 2.1 points to 42.4 over the past month, undercutting his prior low of 43 in June. The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval measure indicates that 42.4% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden's job performance and 57.6% disapprove. The approval rating excludes those who were unsure or declined to state an opinion,
Including the full survey group, 39% of American adults approve how Biden is handling the presidency, and 53% disapprove. Biden's net -14 approval rating deteriorated from July's -9 (40% approval and 49% disapproval) and June's -12 (37%-49%).
Biden Approval Rating Details
The new low in Biden's approval rating came as his standing among independents continued to worsen. Net disapproval of Biden widened to 36 points among independents, with 62% panning his job performance and 26% approving. That's a deterioration from 60%-26% in July and 56%-27% in June.
Republicans disapprove 89%-8%, deepening from 85%-9% in July and 84%-10% in June.
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Members of his own party approve of Biden's job performance by 70%-19%, slipping from 72%-19% in July, but up from 66%-22% in June.
Approval Of President Biden's Policies
Net disapproval of Biden's economic policies rose to 27 points, matching June's low point. Now adults disapprove of Biden's economic policies 54%-27%, vs. 52%-27% in July and 52%-25% in June. Independents disapprove, 55%-18%.
All signs point to inflation as a major source of Biden's poor reviews. U.S. employers added 9.5 million jobs in the first 18 months of Biden's presidency, including 528,000 last month. Meanwhile, the average hourly wage has grown a strong 5.2% over the past year. Yet inflation has eaten away all of that increase and more for many Americans.
The IBD/TIPP Poll finds that just 17% of adults say their wages have kept pace with inflation, while 54% say they haven't kept pace. Meanwhile, 90% of Americans are concerned about the path of inflation over the next 12 months. The share of Americans who think the U.S. economy is in a recession rose to 62% from 58% in July, 53% in June and 48% in May.
The IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index dipped 0.8 point to 68.5 in August. That's still not far off April 2020's 69.8 record high in polling going back to December 2007. Readings above 50 mean financial stress is rising.
Approval of Biden's handling of the pandemic slipped to 42%-37% from 42%-35% in July, but still above June's 40%-37%. Covid hospitalizations continue to trend higher amid a contagious new omicron variant, but fatalities aren't far off the lowest level of the pandemic and most restrictions have lapsed.
Biden Gets Negative Marks on Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has presented Biden with the kind of foreign policy crisis that can sometimes build national unity on the home front. However, the conflict's effect of adding a risk premium to oil prices has exacerbated one of Biden's biggest problems.
The August IBD/TIPP Poll finds American adults disapprove of Biden's handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict 43%-32%, slightly improved from 43%-30% in July but a touch worse than June's 42%-32%.
The poor opinion appears tied to broader concerns over gas prices and inflation, and Biden's perceived culpability.
In assigning fault for the recent increase in gas prices, 42% saw Biden's policies as deserving "a great deal" of blame, only topped by 43% who say oil companies deserve heavy blame. Fewer cited the Russia-Ukraine situation (37%) and oil-producing countries (34%). Including those assigning "some" share of the blame, 62% fault Biden.
Investors Support Ebbs For Biden
Despite the stock market's rally since mid-June, investors now disapprove of Biden's job performance 49%-47%, reversing approval of 49%-44% in July and 51%-41% in June.
IBD/TIPP counts as investors those respondents who say they have at least $10,000 in household-owned mutual funds or equities.
After Friday's jobs report increased expectations for another 75-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September, the current market rally hinges on a much-improved inflation reading with Wednesday's release of the consumer price index.
Through Friday, the Dow Jones was down 9.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 had lost 13% and the Nasdaq 19.1%. Since the Nov. 3, 2020, Election Day, the Dow is up 19.4%, the S&P 500 23% and the Nasdaq 13.4%.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
Biden's big problem is among noninvestors, who tend to be hit harder by inflation. Noninvestors now disapprove of Biden's job performance, 56%-35%. That compares to 52%-35% in July and 52%-30% in June.
The August IBD/TIPP Poll reflects online surveys of 1,335 adults from August 2-4. The results come with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 points.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
