President Joe Biden's approval rating has relapsed as recession fears mount and financial stress intensifies, a new IBD/TIPP Poll finds.
Biden's job approval rating slid 3.7 points to 45.3 in October, giving back more than half of the prior month's bounce that followed approval of the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act and his decision to forgive up to $20,000 in college loans.
The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval figure indicates that 45.3% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden's job performance and 54.7% disapprove, in a measure that excludes those who were unsure or declined to say.
Including the full survey group, 41% of American adults approve of how Biden is handling the presidency, and 49% disapprove. That net -8 approval rating deteriorated from September's -2 rating, with 46% approval and 48% disapproval. August's -14 net job approval, with 39% approval and 53% disapproval, was Biden's lowest approval rating since taking office.
Biden Approval Rating Details
The drop in Biden's approval rating came as his standing among independents dived anew, after improving from dire levels in September. Net disapproval of Biden widened to 29 points among independents from 21 points in September. Now, 56% of independents pan Biden's job performance and 27% approve. That compares with 57%-36% in September and 62%-26% in August.
October Jobs Report: A Bit Softer But Still Too Hot For The Fed
However, Biden's bounce showed staying power among members of his own party. Democrats now approve of his job performance by a 77%-to-16% margin, improving from 76% to 17% in September and 70%-19% in August.
Republicans disapprove 86%-11%, unchanged from September.
Younger adults, who provided the bulk of Biden's bounce in September, continue to stick by him. Adults 18-44 now approve of Biden's handling of the presidency by a 46%-39% margin, down from 51%-40% last month. Biden's net approval of seven points among younger Americans, though down from +11 points in September, is still a big turnaround from his -11-point net rating in August. At that time, just 40% of 18- to 44-year-olds approved and 51% disapproved of his job performance.
Biden's move late last week to pardon thousands of people convicted of possessing marijuana also may boost his standing with younger adults. Biden called for a reclassification of the drug, which is currently legally classified the same way as heroin.
Yet Biden's problem with older Americans has deepened. Now adults 45 and over disapprove of Biden's job performance by a 58%-36% margin. The -22-point net approval compares to -12 points in September, when older adults disapproved 54%-42%. Biden has even lost ground from the -17-point rating in August, when 56% disapproved and 39% approved.
Approval Of President Biden's Policies
Net disapproval of Biden's economic policies widened to 21 points from 14 points in September, but held above August's -27-point rating. Now adults disapprove of Biden's economic policies 50%-29% vs. 47%-33% in September and 54%-27% in August. Independents overwhelmingly disapprove, 61%-13%.
All signs point to inflation as a major source of Biden's poor reviews. U.S. employers added 10 million jobs in the first 20 months of Biden's presidency, including 263,000 last month, Labor Department data shows. Meanwhile, the average hourly wage has grown a strong 5% over the past year. Yet inflation has eaten away all of that increase and more for many Americans.
The IBD/TIPP Poll finds that just 22% of adults say their wages have kept pace with inflation, while 54% say they haven't kept pace. Meanwhile, 90% of Americans are concerned about the path of inflation over the next 12 months.
Is The U.S. Economy In A Recession?
The share of Americans who think the U.S. economy is in a recession rose to 61% from 59% in September. Though just off August's 62%, recession fears have mounted since May, when 48% of Americans believed a recession had begun.
Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index jumped 1.9 points to 69.5 in October's poll. That's just below April 2020's 69.8 record high in polling going back to December 2007. Readings above 50 mean financial stress is rising.
Now 38% of adults are concerned about job loss in their household, up from 34% in September and 31% in August.
Investors Stick By Biden
Investors now approve of Biden's job performance 54%-44% vs. 56%-41% in September. That's despite a rough ride for stocks this year amid aggressive Federal Reserve tightening of monetary policy to stem the biggest inflation outbreak since the early 1980s.
IBD/TIPP counts as investors those respondents who say they have at least $10,000 in household-owned mutual funds or equities.
Through Friday, the Dow Jones was down 20.4% from its record closing high on Jan. 4, year-to-date. The S&P 500 has fallen 24.1% from its peak close and the Nasdaq composite 33.7%. Since Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020, the Dow is up 6.6% and the S&P 500 8%, but the Nasdaq has lost 4.55%.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
Biden's big problem is among non-investors, who now disapprove of Biden's job performance, 53%-33% vs. 51%-42% in September and 56%-35% in August.
The October IBD/TIPP Poll reflects online surveys of 1,376 adults from Oct. 5-7. The results come with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 points.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
