CHANTILLY, Va.—BIA Advisory Services has issued a new study forecasting that political spending in 2024 will hit a record $11.1 billion. That’s up a whopping $2.2 billion (+24%) over 2022, and $1.5 billion (+15.5%) over 2020 political ad spending.
BIA is also predicting that political will be the top spending vertical category in 2024 for many of the media channels in BIA’s forecast, including TV OTA, TV digital, Cable TV, Radio OTA, and CTV/OTT.
While local ad spending on digital is growing, traditional advertising is forecast to account for 70.2% of political ad spend in 2024, down from 77.9% in 2020, BIA reported in a blog about the study.
As with past Presidential elections, in 2024 over-the-air TV (TV OTA) will get the largest share of political ad dollars in local with an estimated $4.6 billion in forecast spending. Add in TV Digital, and the number rises to $4.9 billion. PC/Laptop will be the second highest at $1.3 billion, followed by Cable TV at $1.1 billion. Cable TV is the only media channel forecast to be down from 2020 in this category, by nearly $183 million, BIA reported.
Coming in fourth is relative newcomer Connected TV/Over-the-top TV (CTV/OTT), which is forecast to grow to $1.0 billion in 2024 from only $74 million in 2020. Over-the-air radio remains steady with $536 million in 2024, up 16% from 2020.
The biggest change in the political forecast is the spending on CTV/OTT, the study found.
BIA is expecting more spending on CTV/OTT in 2024 by candidates and increased spending by non-political advertisers due to crowd-out. CTV/OTT is forecast to move up to 4th place for local political spending in 2024, behind TV OTA, PC/Laptop, and Cable TV.
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