The NFL is the best reality show on television, but even the best series has a clunker episode every now and then. Week 6 of the 2023 season has the makings of that with a significant lack of marquee matchups.
Of the 15 games on the this week’s schedule, only two feature two teams with records above .500 – the Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) and the Detroit Lions (4-1) at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1). By contrast, there are three games with both teams having losing records and 10 games with one team above .500 and the other at .500 or below.
There will be weeks this season that are full of potential playoff teams squaring off. This week isn’t one of them.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Denver Broncos (+425) at Kansas City Chiefs (-600)
The Chiefs are heavy favorites (10.5 points at -110 for both teams) and it may be more because of Denver’s defense than Kansas City’s offense. The Broncos have allowed 28 or more points in each of their last four games and going on the road to play the Chiefs isn’t likely to end that streak. Take the Chiefs and lay 10.5 points (-110).
Baltimore Ravens (-200) at Tennessee Titans (+165)
The Over/Under is low (40.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under), but both the Ravens and the Titans have under this total in four of five as well. This has the feel of a game decided by field goals and running the ball, not a lot of touchdowns. Take Under 40.5 points (-110).
Washington Commanders (+120) at Atlanta Falcons (-145)
The Falcons are small home favorites (2.5 points at -110 for both teams), despite having all three of their wins at home this season. After starting 2-0, the Commanders have lost three straight and allowed 34 or more points in each of those losses. The Falcons shouldn’t light them up to that extent but can run their way to a win. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (-145) at Chicago Bears (+120)
The Vikings struggle against running quarterbacks and give up a lot of points to them. The Over/Under is in the middle of the pack for Week 6 (44.5 points at -110 for both). The loss of Justin Jefferson hurts Minnesota’s offense, but it doesn’t kill it. Justin Fields will make enough big plays to help push this point total over the top. Take Over 44.5 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (+125) at Cincinnati Bengals (-150)
The Bengals are trying to climb out of their annual early hole they dig for themselves and are small home favorites (2.5 points at -105 Seahawks, -115 Bengals). Joe Burrow finally looked healthy last week and, while the teams appear evenly matched, the Bengals have the better depth of personnel and big-play guys. Take the Bengals and lay 2.5 points (-105).
San Francisco 49ers (-300) at Cleveland Browns (+240)
The 49ers have been dominant all season – scoring 30 or more points in every game and limiting opponents to 16 points or less in four of five. The Niners are a solid road favorite (7 points at -110 for both teams) but have beaten their first five opponents by 23, 7, 18, 19 and 32 points. The Browns will need to prove a lot just to cover this number. Take the 49ers and lay 7 points (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+575) at Miami Dolphins (-900)
The Panthers remain winless and have allowed 100 points in the last three games. The Dolphins are a massive favorite (13.5 points at -110 for both teams) but have earned it by outscoring their opponents 101-38 in their first two home games. Carolina just can’t compete with the firepower the Dolphins bring at home. Take the Dolphins and lay 13.5 points (-110).
Indianapolis Colts (+165) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-200)
Some division matchups have longstanding themes. For the Colts and Jaguars, it is the home team winning. Jacksonville last lost at home to the Colts in 2014. The Jags are a home favorite (4 points at -110 for both teams) and, given their history, they keep their home streak against the Colts continuing. Take the Jaguars and lay 4 points (-110).
New Orleans Saints (-120) at Houston Texans (+100)
The Saints defense has held four of five opponents to 18 points or less, including a shutout of New England last week. The Saints are small road favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). Houston has showed signs of improvement and will give New Orleans all it can handle, but the Saints defense will step up again on the road. Take the Saints and lay 1.5 points (-110).
New England Patriots (+135) at Las Vegas Raiders (-160)
The Patriots offense is pathetic, and the Raiders haven’t scored more than 18 points all season. The Over/Under is low (41.5 points at -110 for both the Over and Under) but not low enough for these teams. Take the Under (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+240) at Los Angeles Rams (-300)
The Rams have been a hard team to figure out. They gain a lot of yards, but more drives end up with field goal attempts (16) than touchdowns (11). They are a strong road favorite against the Cardinals (7 points at -110 for both teams), but you can’t trust a team that scores field goals and give away a touchdown. Take the Cardinals plus 7 points (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (-300) at New York Jets (+240)
The Eagles are a solid road favorite (7 points at -110 for both teams) but remain overshadowed by the 49ers. The Jets have kept the Bills and Chiefs under this point spread but have struggled against the run, and the Eagles love to run over opposing defense. Take the Eagles and lay 7 points (-110).
Detroit Lions (-175) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+145)
The Lions have been on a roll with wins of 14, 14 and 18 points in their last three games. The Bucs are 3-1 and coming off their bye week. The Over/Under is reasonable (43.5 points at -110 for both teams). There is just too much offensive talent on both teams for this not to get into shootout mode at some point. Take Over 43.5 points (-110).
New York Giants (+575) at Buffalo Bills (-900)
Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bills are a massive favorite (14 points at -110 for both teams) for good reason. The Giants’ four losses have come by 40, 18, 21 and 15 points. Buffalo’s last three wins have come by 28, 34 and 28 points. History repeats itself for both teams. Take the Bills and lay 14 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (-135) at Los Angeles Chargers (+115)
When the Cowboys win, they win big, but being humbled by the 49ers last week left a sour taste in their mouths. Dallas is a small road favorite (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Chargers have had close games every week, which lends itself to Brandon Staley making the bonehead decision that costs them a game. He obliges again this week. Take the Cowboys and lay 2.5 points (-110).
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