In Week 1, a shocking number of games went under the projected Over/Under totals (12 went Under, three went Over and one was a push). As we come to Week 2, there is a different anomaly that is taking place.
Of the 16 games on the Week 2 slate of games, nine road teams are favored. That may not seem like a big disparity, but it’s saying that home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be. The truth is the road favorites are not going to go 9-0. The challenge will be picking the right home dogs to win.
Minnesota Vikings (+220) at Philadelphia Eagles (-275)
It’s only mid-September, but this game has a Halloween feel to it. Lincoln Financial Field is a house of horrors for Minnesota. They’ve been clubbed hard there, and the line reflects a repeat performance with the Eagles as a solid favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both). The Vikings defense isn’t equipped to stop Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability. That will open everything up in the pass game. Take the Eagles and lay 6.5 points (-110).
Los Angeles Chargers (-150) at Tennessee Titans (+125)
The Chargers get a lot of love from the oddsmakers despite sketchy results. Maybe it’s Justin Herbert‘s flowing mane that gets them. The Chargers are solid road favorites (3 points at -105 Chargers, -115 Titans). But this has the look of Derrick Henry‘s fingerprints being all over this. If the Chargers can’t stop him, Tennessee has the ball for more than 35 minutes and dictates pace, and they may win outright — much less getting 3 points. Take the Titans plus 3 points (-115).
Green Bay Packers (-125) at Atlanta Falcons (+105)
The Packers went on the road to beat the Bears – what’s new? – but this will be a much better test of where the Packers are as a team in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. The Packers are given their due respect as a road favorite (1.5 points). The Falcons have a running game that, against the right opponent, can dominate time of possession. The Packers look to be one of those teams. Take the Falcons on the moneyline (+105).
Indianapolis Colts (-125) at Houston Texans (+125)
Two of the most enigmatic rookie quarterbacks meet for the first time in this divisional battle. The Colts are a mild favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Texans are in a much deeper rebuild than the Colts (even without Jonathan Taylor) but Anthony Richardson is going to be the real deal. It has already started and Week 2 may cement that thought. Take the Colts and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (+195) at Detroit Lions (-250)
The Seahawks laid an egg in Week 1 at home, while the Lions pulled off a big upset at Kansas City the previous Thursday. The bet to look at here is the Over/Under projection (47 points at -110 for the Over and Under). That’s a stiff number, but the Seahawks have the offensive weapons on a dry track that can do damage and Lions defense is no great shakes. Detroit will likely win, but it will be a back and forth battle. Take the Over of 47 points (-110).
Chicago Bears (+120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-145)
The point spread isn’t a Bucs endorsement (2.5 points at +100 Bears, -120 Buccaneers), but Chicago’s defense is awful and will likely not get a quick fix in one week. The Bucs may be the worst 2-0 team in the league, but their run through the NFC North will continue. Take the Buccaneers and lay 2.5 points (-120).
Las Vegas Raiders (+340) at Buffalo Bills (-450)
One of my admitted weaknesses is tending to back the big-point favorite – which Buffalo is (9.5 points at -100 for both the Raiders and Bills). Buffalo squandered a golden opportunity in Week 1. The Raiders in the early window of games (a 10 a.m. PT start time) against an angry team with Super Bowl intentions just doesn’t sound like a recipe for not getting blown out. Take the Bills and lay 9.5 points (-110).
Kansas City Chiefs (-185) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+150)
The thought of the defending champs being 0-2 is a bitter pill to swallow. As such, we won’t go there. The Jags have an offense capable of competing with the Chiefs, which is why this is the biggest Over/Under number of the week (51 points at -110 for both). The Chiefs are going to score their share required, and the young, potent Jags are going to do their part. Take the Over of 51 points (-110).
Baltimore Ravens (+145) at Cincinnati Bengals (-175)
The Bengals were brutalized in Week 1, and they are likely not going to drop to 0-2. That said, the Ravens aren’t going to get pushed around. The Over/Under number makes you think the Bengals are going to get things right (46 points and -110 for both). This number has gone Under in the last three meetings and five of the last seven. This has a field position and field goal feeling more than a ton of touchdowns. Take the Under of -110.
New York Giants (-250) at Arizona Cardinals (+200)
It’s rare when a team that lost by 40 points is a significant road favorite (5.5 points). But these are the Cardinals. I’m intrigued by the Over/Under (39.5 points at -110 for both). There’s no reason to believe either offense can provide enough firepower to hit the Over. Take the Under of 39.5 points (-110).
San Francisco 49ers (-375) at Los Angeles Rams (+290)
This is a big point spread for a road favorite (8.5 points at -105 49ers, -115 Rams). The simple fact of the matter is that the Rams offense did nothing against the 49ers last year in the changing of the guard in the NFC West, losing 24-9 and 31-14. Without Cooper Kupp, the trend continues. Imagine what will happen when the Niners start playing home games. Take the 49ers and lay 8.5 points (-110).
New York Jets (+310) at Dallas Cowboys (-400)
Yeah, the A-Rodg Jets are dead, but the defense isn’t. The Cowboys are an embarrassingly heavy favorite (9 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets aren’t going to get blown out like the Giants were. This spread is a little too high given the acumen of the Jets defense and the added weapons on offense for New York. Take the Jets plus-9 points (-110).
Washington Commanders (+150) at Denver Broncos (-185)
The Broncos lost at home last week, so there is a reason why they are minimal home favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both). Football is a game of corrections, and the Broncos will make the needed changes to dictate the pace of a field-possession-filled game to win. Take the Broncos and lay 3.5 points.
Miami Dolphins (-160) at New England Patriots (+135)
Few teams are better at making defensive changes to adapt to the situation than the Patriots. Miami is coming off a huge road win and are looking to go 2-0 before it plays its first home game. The Patriots won’t lay down. The Over/Under number plays into the mindset of the Dolphins winning (46.5 points at -110 for both). Miami may drop the Pats to 0-2, but they won’t blow them out. Take the Under of 46.5 points (-110).
New Orleans Saints (-165) at Carolina Panthers (-+140)
The Saints struggled in their opener against the Titans, but the Panthers are a different animal completely. Carolina is in rebuild mode, where the Saints are not. If this game was later in the year, it may be a different story. New Orleans is a mildly significant road favorite (3 points at -115 Saints, -105 Panthers). The veterans on the Saints roster win the day. Take the Saints and lay 3 points (-110).
Cleveland Browns (-140) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+115)
Given the Browns’ domination of the Bengals and the Steelers being humbled at home by the 49ers, Cleveland being installed as a 2.5-point road favorite on the road on Monday night makes some sense. However, betting against the Steelers at home – much less against a Browns team they have beaten in three of their last four home games – the chances of the Steelers going 0-2 at home isn’t likely. Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+115).
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