Part of betting is learning from your losses and learning your weaknesses. I’ve done both.
My Achilles’ heel is double-digit favorites. They should slap the taste out of the mouth of their opponent. Over the past four weeks, there have been seven games in which team has been favored by double-digits.
I’m 1-6 in those games.
Suffice to say, I will be betting the Over/Under on the one double-digit game this week. Learn from your mistakes and don’t repeat them…even if you believe this is the week the curse ends.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
NFL Betting Odds and Lines: Week 11
Tennessee Titans (+145) at Green Bay Packers (-170)
The Packers saved their season by being desperate and throwing the ball. Given their banged up offensive line, that won’t continue for long. Tennessee is a three-point underdog at even money. I wouldn’t begrudge anyway effectively being given four points (three would be a push). The Titans’ only losses have been the Chiefs, Bills and Giants. The Packers aren’t in that class. Take the Titans on the moneyline +145)
Los Angeles Rams (+160) at New Orleans Saints (-190)
The Rams are getting Matthew Stafford back, but won’t have Cooper Kupp, which is why the Saints are a solid favorite (3.5 points at -113 Rams, -107 Saints). The Rams beat the teams they’re better than (see the schedule), but I’m willing to give the Saints a chance to win and get more than a field goal as a hedge. Take the Rams plus 3.5 points (-113).
Detroit Lions (+140) at New York Giants (-165)
It seems like the Giants refuse to get respect from the oddsmakers who seemingly keep expecting the other shoe to drop. The Giants are small favorites (3 points at -109 Lions, -111 Giants). The Lions have lost to every team they’ve played with a record of better than .500. I’ll lay a field goal on that. Take the Giants and lay 3 points (-113).
Chicago Bears (+145) at Atlanta Falcons (-170)
The Bears have been a different team the last month since letting Justin Fields cut loose and run. The Falcons are a fluky team at home, which is why they’re favored (3.5 points at -119 Bears, -101 Falcons). Chicago has a chance to win this game if they let Fields run the RPO, but given a nice cushion is easier. Take the Bears plus 3.5 points (-119).
Carolina Panthers (+500) at Baltimore Ravens (-700)
Seeing as I won’t touch 13 points (see above), all that leaves me is the Over/Under (42 points at -110 Over and Under). I believe the Ravens are capable of putting up 30. That doesn’t leave Baker Mayfield to do much late in the game. Take the Over (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (-320) at Indianapolis Colts (+250)
The perfect season is done because the Eagles shot themselves in the foot (wing, thigh and leg) Monday night. They’re solid road favorites (7 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Colts). Indy is overmatched at far too many positions. This could get ugly. Take the Eagles and lay 7 points (-108).
Cleveland Browns (+310) at Buffalo Bills (-380)
Who plays football in four to six feet of snow? Nobody. Right now, the Over/Under is acceptable (43 points at -110 for both). As we’ve learned in the NFL, games can be delayed or relocated. Both options are currently in play. I’ve attended a Tuesday night NFL game. The field will be clean – one way or another – when the game begins. Take the Over (-110).
Washington Commanders (170) at Houston Texans (+145)
I don’t like this game. The Commanders are on a short week. Neither team has a quarterback that’s NFL-worthy. The Over/Under is small (41 points at -109 Over, -111 Under). I see a game where running the ball and field position are at a premium to keep it close late. Take the Under (-111).
New York Jets (+145) at New England Patriots (-170)
This one could go either way. The only certainty is that a lot of points are not expected. The Over/Under is just 38 points – three points less than any other game. The Patriots are nominal favorites (3 points at -102 Jets, -118 Patriots). If a game is expected to be played tight to the vest, I tend to go Belichick in that scenario. Take the Patriots and lay 3 points (-118).
Las Vegas Raiders (+125) at Denver Broncos (-150)
Both teams have been disappointments, but the Broncos defense has allowed 20 points just once – a loss to the Raiders in Week 3. Denver is a minimal home favorite (2.5 points at -103 Raiders, -117 Broncos). The Raiders are on the brink of 2022 extinction, and the Broncos defense has revenge in mind. Take the Broncos and lay 2.5 points (-117).
Cincinnati Bengals (-200) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+170)
A Week 1 loss to the Steelers put the Bengals in a hole they’re still trying to climb out of – where every loss is a step backward that kills momentum. Cincinnati is a road favorite (4 points at -110 Bengals, -110 Steelers). At this point, the Bengals are better at too many positions to lay off the point spread. Take the Bengals and lay 4 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (-125) at Minnesota Vikings (+105)
Minnesota is 4-0 at home and winners of seven straight. The Cowboys are a coming off a road loss at Green Bay where they blew a 14-point lead. Yet, Dallas is favored (2 points at -110 for both teams). Call me nuts, but getting points for a home team with a loud crowd and an 8-1 record just makes too much sense. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (+105).
Kansas City Chiefs (-240) at Los Angeles Chargers (+200)
In my view, the Chargers are the most overrated team of the last two seasons. They lose games they should win. They lose games they should lose. The spread says the Chiefs should win (5.5 points at -112 Chiefs, -108 Chargers). I rarely shy away from a team that dominates its division or betting against a team that underachieves. Take the Chiefs and lay 5.5 points (-112).
San Francisco 49ers (-370) at Arizona Cardinals (+305)
The 49ers remain a favorite to go to the Super Bowl despite not showing it consistently on the field. The Cardinals are forced to pass by design. The Over/Under is low (43.5 at -111 Over, -109 Under). The combination of the 49ers looking to hit their stride and the Cardinals likely to throw 40 or more times makes this number seem too low. Take the Over (-111).
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