As is customary in Week 1 of the NFL, because teams haven’t shown much in the preseason, point spreads are tight and home teams are favored.
Of the 16 games on the schedule, 13 of the games have a point spread of four points or less and 14 of the favored teams are the home teams. Don’t get used to it, because after strengths and deficiencies become clear, you won’t see so many close games or home favorites happen later in the season.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Baltimore Ravens (+125) at Kansas City Chiefs (-150)
The Chiefs are a modest home favorite (3 points at -115 Ravens, -105 Chiefs). Kansas City was caught off-guard in the season-opening game last year against Detroit and fought uphill the entire season. These two could meet again in late-January with the Super Bowl on the line. The Chiefs want that game (if it happens) to be at Arrowhead and they will be ready. Take the Chiefs and lay 3 points (-105).
Green Bay Packers (+115) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-140)
The Eagles have a “home game” in Brazil and this game has a very high Over/Under (49 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Road trips break up the regimented routine teams are accustomed to, and both teams traveling to another continent will make it difficult to hit on all cylinders offensively with a point this high. Take the Under (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+240) at Buffalo Bills (-300)
The Bills are the second-biggest favorite of the week (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). I’ve always had a problem with West Coast teams heading east and playing in the early-window games. The game starts at 10 a.m. local time for the Cardinals, and it’s a distinct home-field advantage for Buffalo. Bills Mafia will make things miserable for the Cardinals and get the season off to a strong start. Take the Bills and lay 6.5 points (-110).
New England Patriots (+310) at Cincinnati Bengals (-400)
The Bengals are the biggest favorite of the week (8 points at -110 for both teams). The Patriots are in complete rebuild mode and a healthy Bengals team has Super Bowl aspirations. With both teams as healthy as they’re going to be, you bet on the more talented team regardless of the point spread. Take the Bengals and lay 8 points (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (-120) at New York Giants (+100)
The Vikings are one of the two road favorites this week (1.5 points at -110 for both). The Giants are undergoing significant change that will take time to mesh on both sides of the ball. The Vikings have the better roster for this game, but it may be the last time in a long time Minnesota is a favorite. Given their schedule, there is a sense of urgency to get a win here. Take the Vikings and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Tennessee Titans (+165) at Chicago Bears (-200)
There is optimism in both cities that they’re in a new era with young talent. The Over/Under is high (45 points at -110 for both). With two extremely young quarterbacks likely getting conservative play-calling that requires 10 plays for a scoring drive, this number seems a little too high. Take the Under (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+180) at New Orleans Saints (-225)
The Saints are a solid home favorite (4 points at -110 for both the Panthers and Saints). These are two franchises that need every divisional win they can get. While the Saints are an aging team, their experience will help defend their yard against a younger team. Take the Saints and lay 4 points (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+135) at Atlanta Falcons (-160)
Both franchises have gone veteran-from-the-outside at quarterback. The Over/Under is low (42 points at -110 for both). The Steelers defense will pressure Kirk Cousins into killing drives, and Russell Wilson isn’t a dynamic point scorer anymore. This game will be more defined by field goals than touchdowns. Take the Under (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) at Miami Dolphins (-175)
There’s something about the Dolphins in September that screams points. This game has about as high as you get (49 points at -110 for both). Both offenses have the ability to be high-octane and a 14-point deficit doesn’t mean the game over. It may come late, but take the Over (-110).
Houston Texans (-160) at Indianapolis Colts (+130)
These division rivals will forever be linked because of the quarterbacks they took in the 2023 draft – C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The Over/Under is projecting a high score (49 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Eventually, the defenses will find ways to limit the damage of the opposing quarterbacks, but this game has the feel of a back-and-forth barn burner. Take the Over (-110).
Las Vegas Raiders (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-160)
This is the lowest Over/Under of the week (40.5 points at -110 for both). The Raiders offense is brutal. Their defense has more than enough talent to keep Justin Herbert in check when he’s replacing his top-three passing targets. History says this game should hit the Over. That last time this matchup hit Under, the Raiders were still in Oakland, but this has the looks of a field-position game. Take the Under (-110).
Denver Broncos (+200) at Seattle Seahawks (-250)
Seattle is a really big favorite (6 points at -110 for both teams). In Week 1, only two teams are favored by more, and the Seahawks are far from dominant. The Broncos are crawling out of the wreckage of their recent past, but too many scenarios could have Denver finding ways to cover. Take the Broncos plus 6 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (+120) at Cleveland Browns (-145)
The Browns are a home favorite (2.5 points), but this bet is based upon a simple premise. Since 2006, the Browns have a Week 1 record of 2-15-1 – by far the worst in the NFL. There’s reason to think that this year could be different, but that’s been said before many times before and been wrong. Take the Cowboys on the moneyline (+120).
Washington Commanders (+140) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-165)
The Commanders are turning a page on a new era, and this will be their first test. The Buccaneers are an expected favorite (3 points at -105 Commanders, -115 Buccaneers). Their veteran-laden experience won’t be enough to get the Bucs to the playoffs, but it will be enough to get past a team in formative steps. Take the Buccaneers and lay 3 points (-115).
Los Angeles Rams (+145) at Detroit Lions (-175)
This is the highest Over/Under of Week 1 (51 points at -110 for both). When healthy, the Rams offense can be lethal – much less with Matthew Stafford coming back to Motown in primetime. The Lions have legitimate preseason Super Bowl aspirations for the first time in forever. If either team gets up by 14 points, they will look to make it 21. Take the Over (-110).
New York Jets (+165) at San Francisco 49ers (-200)
Aaron Rodgers as a Jet was a cute story last year that ended in four plays. The 49ers are a decently sized favorite (4 points at -110 for both the Jets and 49ers). If San Francisco is on its game, a double-digit win isn’t out of the question – even against a very good Jets defense. Welcome back to the NFC, Aaron! Take the 49ers and lay 4 points (-110).
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