It’s a three-day Wild Card Weekend and we’re going to ignore moneyline bets and focus on the point spreads and Over/Under bets for all six games.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Cleveland Browns (-145) at Houston Texans (+120)
The Browns are a small road favorite (2.5 points at -120 Browns, +100 Texans). The Browns hammered the Texans 36-22 in Week 16, but the Texans were without QB C.J. Stroud. Cleveland has been on fire with veteran QB Joe Flacco, and the Browns are rested at a lot of key positions in a short preparation week. Take the Browns and lay 2.5 points (-120).
The Over/Under is pretty average (44.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Browns have been putting up a ton of points lately, but Cleveland has the No. 1 defense in the league and the Texans have been improving as the year went on. The defenses will have something to say in this one. Take Under 44.5 points (-110).
Miami Dolphins (+170) at Kansas City Chiefs (-210)
The Chiefs are decent home favorites (4 points at -110 for both teams). Miami lost 21-14 to the Chiefs in November and are 1-5 against playoff teams – and that was with their full complement of players. The Dolphins have too many injured players to hang with the Chiefs in Kansas City in January. Take the Chiefs and lay 4 points (-110).
The Over/Under is deceptively low given the offenses (44 points at -110 for both). The two teams combined for just 35 points in their first meeting and one touchdown was a defensive score. Miami’s defense is too beaten up to keep up, and Tyreek Hill will do enough on his own to keep Miami close. Take Over 44 points (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+400) at Buffalo Bills (-550)
The Bills are huge favorites (10 points at -110 for both). Given how hot the Bills have been recently, this makes sense. But double-digit favorites in the playoffs are rare. Buffalo is capable of blowing out the Steelers, but if they’re up 17 points, they’re working the clock. Buffalo should win this game, but giving 10 is a lot. Take the Steelers plus 10 points (-110).
The O/U is the lowest of the week (36.5 points at -110 for both teams). Whether or not you’re willing to lay 10 points and the Bills vs. the spread, there doesn’t take a lot to hit this small number. 24-13 covers. Take Over 36.5 points (-110).
Green Bay Packers (+275) at Dallas Cowboys (-350)
The Cowboys are strong favorites (7.5 points at -110 for both teams). They have a history of blowing out opponents at home – six of their eight wins at home have been by 20 points or more. The Packers are the youngest team in the league, and that will show in a playoff game against a time-tested team. Take the Cowboys and lay 7.5 points (-110).
The Over/Under is very big (50.5 points at -110 for both). Dallas has played two playoff teams at home in the last month (Philadelphia and Detroit). One was a blowout. One wasn’t. Both didn’t hit 50 points. Take Under 50.5 points (-110).
Los Angeles Rams (+150) at Detroit Lions (-185)
The Lions are the smallest home favorite of the week (3 points at +100 Rams, -120 Lions). Detroit’s run started last year. It likely ends next week, not this week. Take the Lions and lay 3 points (-110).
The Over/Under is the highest of the week (51.5 points at -110 for both). One thing that can be said about both teams is that, while their running games are prolific, they do damage through the air. If one team gets up by double-digits down, it’s on. Take Over 51.5 points (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (-160) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+135)
Despite their epic collapse – five losses in their last six games – the Eagles are road favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams). They’re favored for a reason. If they lose again, it’s on them … again. Take the Eagles and lay 3 points.
The Over/Under is relatively low (43.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Eagles defense has struggled recently, allowing 27 or more points in six of their last seven games. If the Eagles are going to win, they will likely need to put up a score in the high 20s. Take Over 43.5 points (-110).
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