As we hit Week 18, there are legitimate questions about the four teams that have already locked up their playoff positioning – Baltimore (No. 1 AFC), Kansas City (No. 3), Cleveland (No. 5) and San Francisco (No. 1 NFC). All four teams have nothing to gain by playing their starters and all four won’t risk at least their quarterbacks.
The NFL has done a lot in the timing of games to have teams that are fighting for a similar spot to be playing at the same time and will be headlined by the Miami Dolphins–Buffalo Bills primetime game that could see Buffalo win the division or potentially miss out on the playoffs completely.
The betting numbers are much different in many of these games, which will make Week 18 must-see TV from start to finish.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers (-200) at Baltimore Ravens (+165)
The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives and are solid favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Ravens are going to be resting many of their starters, but they’re the No. 1 seed in the AFC because they have depth on both sides of the ball. The Steelers should win but won’t blow out the Ravens. Take the Ravens plus 3.5 points (-110).
Houston Texans (-120) at Indianapolis Colts (+100)
The Texans are a minimal road favorite (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Colts have been a better team on the road than at home, and Texans have been one of the better improvement stories of 2023. This one should come down to the wire and, in that case, I like my chances with C.J. Stroud. Take the Texans and lay 1 point (-110).
Atlanta Falcons (+145) at New Orleans Saints (-175)
The Over/Under isn’t very high (42 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Falcons only path the playoffs is to win this game and hope the Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With a win, the Saints have a chance to get in as a division winner or a wild card. The Saints have been under this number in three of the last four games, and the Falcons have gone under this total in four of the last six. In a division game where every mistake is huge, take Under 42 points (-110).
Cleveland Browns (+260) at Cincinnati Bengals (-350)
The Browns are locked in their wild-card spot, which helps explain why the Over/Under is so low (37.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Bengals having nothing to lose and will be taking chances, and the Browns have defensive depth that could lead to turnovers that can do their part to stay in the game. Take Over 37.5 points (-110).
New York Jets (+105) at New England Patriots (-125)
The Patriots are very small home favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both). While New England has had its worst season under Bill Belichick and has just one win at home, the Patriots have kept games close and beat the Jets in their first meeting. Belichick will have him team ready, and he leaves with a win. Take the Patriots and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (-250) at Tennessee Titans (+190)
The Jaguars have done everything they can to blow the division title but are strong road favorites (5.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Jaguars dominated the Panthers last week and beat the Titans 34-14 in their first meeting. It’s a win-and-in for the Jaguars, and they’ll get the job done. Take the Jaguars and lay 5.5 points (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (+150) at Detroit Lions (-185)
Although they are very unlikely to move, there is the possibility of the Lions being the No. 2 seed. Yet, they’re small favorites (3.5 points at -115 Vikings, -105 Lions). The Vikings have lost five of their last six and have looked awful doing it. Dan Campbell will do his part and wait and see what happens in the late games. Take the Lions and lay 3.5 points (-105).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-225) at Carolina Panthers (+185)
Despite playing the worst team in the league, the Buccaneers are relatively small favorites (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Bucs control their own destiny and have everything to play for. The same can’t be said for the Panthers, who are coming off a 26-0 loss, don’t benefit by winning or losing because they traded the No. 1 pick in the draft and look done. Take the Buccaneers and lay 4.5 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (-900) at Washington Commanders (+600)
The Cowboys are gigantic favorites (13 points at -115 Cowboys, -105 Commanders). Philadelphia’s collapse has opened the door, and the Cowboys beat the Commanders 45-10 in their first meeting. Dallas has a lot at stake, while the Commanders’ draft standing improves with a loss. Take the Cowboys and lay 13 points (-110).
Los Angeles Rams (+165) at San Francisco 49ers (-200)
The Over/Under is surprisingly low (41 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams are basically locked in their playoff spots. The 49ers have no reason to risk starters in what should be a Super Bowl run. The Rams will likely know their seeding by game time, which is irrelevant, and are benching most of the key players. Both teams want a running clock. Take Under 41 points (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (-250) at New York Giants (+190)
Thanks to an epic collapse that turned the Eagles from 10-1 to 11-5, they’re only small favorites (4.5 points and -115 Eagles, -105 Giants). Their one win in their last five games was a 33-25 win over the Giants. They’ll be scoreboard watching but need to take care of their business to try to claim the No. 2 seed. Take the Eagles and lay 4.5 points (-110).
Chicago Bears (+135) at Green Bay Packers (-160)
The Over/Under is solid for a divisional game in January (44 points at -110 for both Over and Under). After a brutal start, the Bears have won four of their last five games and beat division-champ Detroit along the way. For Green Bay, it’s a win-and-in scenario. The Packers have scored 33 points in each of their last two games, and the Bears have scored 27 or more in three of the last four. Take Over 44 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (-150) at Arizona Cardinals (+125)
The Seahawks need help from only one team (Chicago) to be win-and-in but are small favorites against the 4-12 Cardinals (3 points at -105 Seahawks, -115 Cardinals). The Cardinals are capable of being steamrolled and lost by 10 in their first meeting with Seattle this season. Take the Seahawks and lay 3 points (-110).
Denver Broncos (+120) at Las Vegas Raiders (-145)
The Raiders are less than a standard home favorite (2.5 points at -105 Broncos, -115 Raiders). The last time they were at home, the Raiders scored 63 points and have won five of their last seven games in Vegas. Denver is already waving the red flag with the Russell Wilson benching and are just playing out the string. Take the Raiders and lay 2.5 points (-115).
Kansas City Chiefs (+155) at Los Angeles Chargers (-190)
Because the Chiefs are going to rest most of their starters, they’re a rare underdog (3.5 points at -110 for both). That said, the Chargers have scored 10 or fewer points in four of their last six games. The Chiefs backups can hold this offense down. Take the Chiefs plus 3.5 points (-110).
Buffalo Bills (-165) at Miami Dolphins (+140)
Here we go again – another marquee game with a high Over/Under (49.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). In just about every game between playoff-quality teams with a high O/U, it has consistently hit the Under. With so much at stake for both teams, the goal is going to be not taking the risk that burns you. That lends itself to long drives, field goals and field position. Take Under 49.5 points (-110).
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