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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
David Dorey

Better than average: Running Backs

Given the proliferation of committee backfields, each NFL defense will face usually two or three running backs in the course of most games. Turning in one of the best eight games allowed by a secondary is an elite performance considering that defense.

Below shows how often a player logged the best game allowed by a secondary (Top-1), one of the four best performances allowed (Top-4), and one of the best eight performances (Top-8). With 17 games played, a Top-8 game is “above average” among the best running back from each opponent.

The “Better than Average” (BTA) score is a weighting of those games.

Better than average:  QB | RB | WR | TE 

Bottom line: This is a true measurement of how productive a running back was when schedule influences are  removed. It compares them to other running backs that faced that same defense. If a player rates higher here than they did with 2022 fantasy points, it means they were limited by a schedule and are better than their last year’s stats suggest.

TM Running Back BTA Score Top-1 Top-4 Top-8
LAC Austin Ekeler 22 1 8 13
LVR Josh Jacobs 19 3 5 11
CLE Nick Chubb 17 1 6 10
TEN Derrick Henry 17 0 8 9
GB Aaron Jones 15 2 5 8
NYG Saquon Barkley 15 1 4 10
MIN Dalvin Cook 14 2 5 7
NE Rhamondre Stevenson 14 0 5 9
SF Christian McCaffrey 14 3 5 6
DAL Tony Pollard 13 2 5 6
PHI Miles Sanders 13 3 4 6
TB Leonard Fournette 12 1 5 6
ARI James Conner 11 1 3 7
CIN Joe Mixon 11 1 3 7
SEA Kenneth Walker III 10 2 2 6
DET Jamaal Williams 9 0 2 7
CAR Christian McCaffrey 8 1 3 4
DET D’Andre Swift 8 1 3 4
JAC Travis Etienne 8 0 2 6
MIA Raheem Mostert 8 0 3 5
NO Alvin Kamara 8 1 3 4
BAL Kenyan Drake 7 1 2 4
CHI David Montgomery 7 0 2 5
CIN Samaje Perine 7 1 3 3
DAL Ezekiel Elliott 7 0 0 7
IND Jonathan Taylor 7 0 2 5
PIT Najee Harris 7 1 2 4
CAR D’Onta Foreman 6 0 2 4
ATL Tyler Allgeier 5 0 1 4
BUF Devin Singletary 5 0 1 4
HOU Dameon Pierce 5 0 1 4
KC Jerick McKinnon 5 0 2 3
NYJ Breece Hall 5 0 2 3
TB Rachaad White 5 0 1 4

The position declined in perceived value for NFL teams but they still crank out plenty of fantasy-relevant stats each week and a top player offers consistency that rivals or exceeds other positions. Only six backs logged a Top-8 performance in more than half of their games and their names were familiar – Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley. But also Rhamondre Stevenson as he took over the backfield for the Patriots.

Only ten backs enjoyed five or more Top-4 games allowed by a defense. They included Aaron Jones, Stevenson, Tony Pollard and Leonard Fournette. The players that fell in the metric were Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Kenneth Walker.

The running backs that dropped in the rating last year were Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara. Christian McCaffrey changed teams, but his lower stats were still surprising for a player that is still taken very highly in fantasy drafts.

Top Performances Scored Top-1
Josh Jacobs 3
Christian   McCaffrey 3
Miles Sanders 3
Aaron Jones 2
Dalvin Cook 2
Tony Pollard 2
Kenneth Walker III 2

Not as much dominance here. Josh Jacob’s well-timed career year placed him at the top with Miles Sanders and Christian McCaffrey, but that was only three top performances for each. It is encouraging to see Tony Pollard and Kenneth Walker logging two top performances.

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