LAS VEGAS — In their opener against the Packers on Sept. 10 at Soldier Field, the Bears will discover whether it’s a sink-or-swim season.
To Tom Barton, host of a nationally syndicated betting show on the Sports Garten radio network, it’s that simple. We’d been discussing the Bears’ postseason odds — Yes +155, No -180.
“It’s a must-win game,” Barton said. “Lose to Green Bay and [greenhorn] quarterback Jordan Love, especially at Soldier Field, and the Bears’ defense will have taken a step back. You can’t do that.”
He highlighted the wager:
“If you lose the Green Bay game, take your +155 ticket to make the playoffs and rip it up. It’s the deciding game. I look at Chicago as an eight-win team. Lose to Green Bay, it’s a seven-win team with no chance.”
The Bears’ victory total is 7.5, a -125 price (risk $125 to win $100) on Over, +105 Under at the Westgate SuperBook, which lists Chicago -3 against Green Bay in the opener.
CBS Sports HQ betting analyst Todd Fuhrman gauges volatility within the Bears and an inflated projected win total, and he’s uncertain about realistic expectations for Fields.
DraftKings set his passing yardage at 2,850.5, -110 both ways. He threw for 1,870 yards as a rookie and 2,242 last season.
“This will be the season the Bears decide if he’s either the quarterback of the future or they’re in the top five of the draft,” Fuhrman said, “and [general manager] Ryan Poles says, ‘He’s not the guy,’ and they go in a different direction.”
Fuhrman might have committed Windy City blasphemy by betting Green Bay to win more than 7.5 games, -120 at the SuperBook.
“Do I think the Packers’ schedule is that great? No,” he said. “But I think they’re a little bit undervalued in a division that could have a wide variety of outcomes.”
SKEPTICAL
The irony between the two handicappers is that Barton grew up a Bears fan on Long Island, while Fuhrman was raised in Chicago but supports the Giants.
However, both most prize the same team color — #85bb65 — the precise shade of green in U.S. currency.
At Circa Sports, +425 Chicago is the fourth option to win the NFC North, topped by +125 Detroit, +282 Minnesota and +385 Green Bay.
The Bears are 19-to-1 to partake in -Super Bowl LVIII and 46-1 to win it all here inside Allegiant Stadium. (Odds and prices subject to change.)
Fuhrman, 41, grimaced at fairy-tale scenarios and said, “I’m just not sure it’s happening this season.”
In Matt Eberflus’ first season as coach, the Bears went 5-11-1 against the spread. Only the Buccaneers (4-13-1) fared worse. The Bears were underdogs in 15 of 17 games.
This season, for what it’s worth, they’re underdogs in eight SuperBook game-line projections and favored in seven, with two at pick ’em.
When I repeated those +155 Yes and -180 No playoff odds to Fuhrman, he said, “I’d lay the No,” before I had finished the sentence.
He added, “If you believe the Bears are a playoff team, you’re better off betting them Over 7.5 wins.”
Fields is 20-1 to win NFL MVP at the
SuperBook.
“I’m skeptical,” Fuhrman said. “But if the light goes on and [Fields] suddenly becomes a better passer, and he’ll be better in Luke Getsy’s offense, then it can pay dividends.”
PATIENCE PAYS
Lions coach Dan Campbell had his charges play daringly, and entertainingly, in a season-capping victory in Green Bay, which kept the Packers out of the playoffs.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff enters the season with 324 consecutive throws without a pick, the fifth-longest such streak in NFL history.
“The only thing that would surprise me is if Detroit finishes last in the division,” Fuhrman said. “[But] there’s a reason the Lions haven’t won it since 1993.”
Fuhrman has bet Raiders Under 7.5, Giants Under 8.5 and Falcons Over 8.5 wins. Plus, he recommends getting the Falcons to make the playoffs but at a return of at least +220.
A day after the Super Bowl, Barton got 9-1 odds on the Bills to win it all, and he nabbed Under 6.5 wins on both the Cardinals and Colts.
He called Indy “a bungling organization,” and he plans to bet often against the Colts and Under on passing yardage (2,800.5, -115) for rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Love’s passing-yardage projection is 3,350.5, +125 Over, -145 Under.
Barton and Fuhrman concur about the NFC North.
“The division could be so bad,” Barton said. “Call me a nonbeliever in the Lions going to the Super Bowl. They look pretty good, but this team has won one playoff game in my lifetime!
“I don’t like Dan Campbell as a big-game coach, either, and now he’s the hunted as opposed to the hunter.”
Already sour on the Bears’ offensive and defensive lines, the 46-year-old Barton told me last Saturday he planned to wait until right before the start of the season to buy that Over 7.5 ticket.
Then guard Teven Jenkins (leg) went down, and rookie Darnell Wright (ankle) fell Tuesday. Barton wisely didn’t pull an early trigger, aiming to cull all possible information.
Early Wednesday morning, he confirmed that he won’t make that bet. A sage lesson from the professional handicapping trenches. Then the fan in him spoke, perhaps for Bears aficionados everywhere:
“We can’t have nice things. The Bears definitely sold their soul in 1985.”
