It was quite the wait, but Netflix finally brought out its Tour de France 2022 series Unchained in early June to a mixed reception. From my sofa, it was a fun if lightweight view, long on histrionics in the team car and short on hard analysis, which led to some glaring gaps that will grate with aficionados.
There is one lacuna, however, which is no fault of the producers: Tadej Pogacar barely appears, because his team did not participate in the series. In Shakespearean terms this is not so much staging Hamlet without the ghost as putting on Hamlet without the prince of Denmark.
On its behalf, and on that of expectant viewers, let us hope Netflix already has the Slovene’s signature on the dotted line, as the 2023 Tour, which starts in Bilbao on Saturday, is likely to see “Pog” loom as large as he has in the past two editions.
On paper the 2023 race could be unique in recent Tour history, promising as it does a best-of-three battle between the 2021 winner, Pogacar, and his nemesis of 2022, the wraith-like Dane Jonas Vingegaard, who was runner-up to the UAE Team Emirates leader two years ago.
On close inspection, none of the Tour’s greatest rivalries has offered anything resembling the confrontation between Pogacar and Vingegaard. The French swear by the 1960s encounters between Jacques Anquetil and Raymond Poulidor – stage nine is the race’s tribute to them with its finish up the Puy de Dôme – but “Poupou” only looked like beating “Master Jacques” the once and never actually did.
Bernard Hinault was run close by Joop Zoetemelk in 1978 and 1979, but the Dutchman won the 1980 race only after “the Badger” departed with a knee injury. Claudio Chiappucci talked a good race in the early 90s, but never got near Miguel Indurain, and Jan Ullrich never won in a head-to-head with Lance Armstrong.
In contrast, Pogacar and Vingegaard have gone head-to-head twice: in 2021, when the Dane stepped in from stage left for the injured Primoz Roglic to finish second to the Slovene, and last year, when Pogacar took an early grasp on the race only for an outrageously well-orchestrated team effort by Jumbo-Visma to dislodge him on the stage to the Col du Granon.
Hence the best-of-three twist in this year’s race, which – assuming injury and Covid-19 spare the pair – will either confirm Vingegaard’s win of 2022 was no fluke or will give Pogacar the magic third victory that places him level, notably, with Greg LeMond and Louison Bobet in the record books.
Vingegaard has enjoyed the better buildup. He has grown in confidence as the season has progressed, winning three stage races – the Gran Camino, the Tour of the Basque Country and the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he was never pushed anywhere near his limit – and landing eight stage wins along the way.
Pogacar has won more, won a greater variety of races, and has won bigger – notably Paris-Nice plus the Amstel Gold, Flèche Wallonne and Ronde van Vlaanderen Classics – but has just endured a layoff to recover from a wrist fracture sustained in a crash in Liège-Bastogne-Liège in late April. His win last week in his home time trial championships points to a return to form, but in terms of the Tour his imperious form this spring was more meaningful: only Eddy Merckx and Bobet have won the Tour de France and the Ronde van Vlaanderen.
The pair are backed by the two strongest teams in cycling. In 2022 Jumbo-Visma secured Vingegaard’s victory by pulverising UAE Emirates – who had been shredded by Covid-19 – and Pogacar on the stage to the Col du Granon, while the strongest all-rounder in the sport, Wout van Aert, played a key role at critical moments.
Jumbo return with a similar squad to 2022, while UAE are strengthened by the addition of Adam Yates, a potential podium finisher if Pogacar stumbles, and the Austrian Felix Grossschartner. It all points to a titanic duel, with the other 20 squads struggling to make up the numbers in the overall general classification (GC).
“If you’re not one of those two, the first thing to do is acknowledge it,” says Steve Cummings, a double Tour stage winner who will head up Ineos’s management team at the Tour. “Based on what I’ve seen fifth to 10th on GC is realistic, perhaps the podium, but you have to ask if that’s enough for Ineos, then you have to think about stages and try to win a few. Winning the Tour this year is not realistic, but in the next three years, it is.”
Behind Pogacar and Vingegaard there are at least half a dozen contenders who have been nowhere near the dynamic duo’s level, but can aspire to third place at least: Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor, Mikel Landa, David Gaudu, Romain Bardet, Enric Mas and perhaps the nominal Ineos leader, Tom Pidcock.
Cummings highlights stage one on Saturday as one that will suit the Yorkshire rider – although Mathieu van der Poel will also be eyeing it – but he admits to a dilemma over whether to rein Pidcock back and target a high overall position, or give him a free rein to target stages.
After day one, he said, Ineos “will get an idea of what is possible and what isn’t. Tom and Carlos [Rodríguez] are young, when you have younger, developing riders, that gives some uncertainty. It’s a cliche, but for them it’s about learning.”
If the Pogacar v Vingegaard head-to-head is enthralling – and Pidcock’s progress will be an intriguing subplot for British fans – the organisers have provided a daunting backdrop: the toughest opening week of the Tour since at least the second world war, a return to the Puy de Dôme after 35 years, and eight mountain or medium-mountain stages plus a time trial in the final two weeks.
The sprinters will hate it but the climbers will be licking their lips, while the unprecedented amount of early climbing could well lead to a scenario in which a strong outsider is permitted to hold the lead as a caretaker while Pogacar and Vingegaard watch each other like hawks.
