Week 9 is in the books, which means we’re officially past the halfway mark of the new-ish 17-week NFL season.
That’s enough a sample size of games to have a good idea on which players have the best chances to win different awards, but it leaves just enough time for all of that to change.
If you’re a bettor inclined to throw more money at the favorites and their shorter odds, that’s completely understandable given what they’ve shown already this year. This post isn’t for you.
This is all about the players with longer odds that could potentially make a greater case down the stretch of the season. Let’s get into who those players are.
Odds are from BetMGM
MVP: Tyreek Hill (+10000)
Favorite: Patrick Mahomes (+225)
We said these were value picks, right? Well, there isn’t much more value than 100-1 odds on a player on track to smash the single-season receiving yards record. While all of the quarterbacks with better odds than Hill have gone through down games — with the exception of maybe Jalen Hurts — Hill just keeps rolling along, even when his own quarterback missed time.
Hill is the only player with over 1,000 yards through nine weeks, with 1,104 on 76 catches, which puts him on pace for an NFL record 2,085 yards. And we saw what this offense was without him a year ago, so his value is very tangible.
Defensive Player of the Year: Matthew Judon (+1200)
Favorite: Micah Parsons (-250)
Judon is the only NFL player with double-digit sacks through nine weeks. His 11.5 are are three more than the next closest players — three tied at 8.5 — and 3.5 more than the betting favorite Parsons. Of course, good defense is more than sacks, but if Judon keeps getting to the QB and it helps the Patriots stay over .500 and sneak into the playoffs, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the convo.
Offensive Player of the Year: Lamar Jackson (+1100)
Favorite: Jalen Hurts (+325)
Jackson is having a season on pace with his MVP campaign of 2019 when it comes to running the ball. At his current rate, he’ll near 1,200 yards for the first time since that year, but he’ll do it on fewer carries — he’s averaging a career-high 7.4 yards per run. His passing stats are lagging behind a bit, but these odds are a good bet on a player plenty capable of catching fire.
Coach of the Year: Kevin O'Connell (+700)
Favorite: Nick Sirianni (-130)
It’s highly unlikely both of the NFC’s best teams totally collapse in the second half of the season. So if Sirianni’s Eagles suffer any big setbacks, that sets up O’Connell to potentially step in as the favorite for this award. The Eagles and Vikings hold the NFL’s two best records, and both are exceeding any reasonable expectations for them coming into the season.
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley (+140)
Favorite: Geno Smith (-135)
Barkley’s odds aren’t as long as others on this list, but I’m convinced this award is Smith’s to lose. And if he loses it, no player is better set up to claim it than Barkley. This generational talent is back in a big way, and the success of the New York Giants can be directly attributed to his resurgence.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave (+700)
Favorite: Kenneth Walker (+100)
I previously wrote about how Michael Thomas’ season-ending injury actually helped Olave’s OROY campaign. But the receiver still has an uphill battle to beat out the two running backs ahead of him. If those backs suffer an injury or any slippage in play, though, nobody is producing as consistently as Olave.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Tariq Woolen (+250)
Favorite: Sauce Gardner (+100)
Gardner is the easy favorite here, and his odds still provide some value. But for a little more bang, Woolen has the second-best odds and he’s playing lights out at the cornerback position too. Woolen has actually been targeted less than Gardner but has two more interceptions.
