With the 2023 NFL draft just a few weeks away, it’s time to think about what kind of fantasy impact the incoming players may have. Rookies have become a much bigger part of the fantasy football landscape in recent seasons. In years past, it was the first-year running backs who typically made the most significant statistical impacts among rookies. But nowadays, we’re seeing an increased number of quarterbacks come right in and finish with solid fantasy totals.
Does that mean we’ll see similar outcomes from the 2023 class? Well, let’s go down memory lane and examine the first-year players at the position since 2000 to see what trends we can unearth that might help us become better drafters.
After all, three of the top five overall projected picks in the 2023 draft are quarterbacks – Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young and Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Also, Kentucky’s Will Levis could be a top-10 overall pick.
Alright, let’s get into it.
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Since 2000, just three rookie quarterbacks have scored over 300 points. That list includes Cam Newton, who scored 380.3 points in 2011, Justin Herbert, who had 332.8 points in 2020 and Robert Griffin III, who had 317.5 points back in 2012. Five others scored over 250 points, including Dak Prescott (2016), Kyler Murray (2019), Andrew Luck (2012), Russell Wilson (2012) and Jameis Winston (2015).
If we look at the overall top 10 fantasy rookie quarterbacks since 2000, we’ll also find that just three occurred before 2012 and four have happened in the last five seasons. There’s also another trend among the top 10, and it has to do with success on the ground. All but one player (Baker Mayfield, 2018) rushed for at least 340 yards or scored at least four rushing touchdowns. Even Herbert, who isn’t seen as a “rushing” quarterback, had 234 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
So, what does this mean for the biggest quarterback names in the current class?
Stroud, the projected No. 1 overall pick, wasn’t much of a runner in college. In fact, he never rushed for more than 108 yards in a season and had just one rushing score in 26 collegiate games. Young had a bit more success, rushing for 185 yards and four touchdowns in his final season at Alabama, but those aren’t huge totals.
Also, 100 of Young’s 185 rushing yards came in just one game.
Richardson is easily the best runner of the projected top three with over 1,000 yards on the ground and 12 scores in his final 19 collegiate games. Of course, he also might have the most work to do as a passer. Levis had 742 rushing yards and 17 rushing scores in 38 collegiate contests, which is solid. He wasn’t good in his final year, though, recording an alarming minus-107 rushing yards.
One other trend we notice is that the majority of the top 10 rookie fantasy quarterbacks since 2000 were first- or second-rounders in the NFL draft. In fact, just two went later … Prescott (Round 4) and Gardner Minshew (Round 6).
That leads us to yet another trend.
In the last 23 years, just six of the 10 best fantasy seasons among quarterbacks resulted in a top-10 finish in their rookie campaigns. Wilson was close at QB11 (2012), as was Winston as the QB13 (2015). The final two field generals, Mayfield and Minshew, both finished outside of the top 15 in their respective rookie years.
Here’s another little tidbit to wrap your fantasy football brain around, and it won’t endear you to rookie quarterbacks. Since 2000, 89 field generals have been picked in the first or second round. The majority of them did next to nothing in Year 1.
Among the 35 signal-callers who started at least 12 games in their first NFL season, 25 averaged fewer than 14 points. That list includes the likes of Vince Young, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Bradford, Trevor Lawrence and Joey Harrington.
Based on the data, fantasy fans looking for a potential breakout quarterback in 2023 might be disappointed. While this year’s class should fare better than the 2022 class, for which Kenny Pickett led all first-year QBs with just 149.9 fantasy points, I don't see a Newton- or Herbert-level impact from anyone this year.
Stroud and Young will likely be picked in the late rounds of re-drafts due their expected chances of being Week 1 starters, and Richardson could fall into that conversation, too, if he can beat out a veteran (maybe Minshew) during camp.
Overall, though, it’s unlikely any rookie QB will be worth more than a late flier. If I had to bet on one to make the biggest impact, my money is on Richardson.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
