Subscribe to Sports Illustrated's Fantasy Dirt Podcast: Apple | Spotify | YouTube
Average draft position (ADP) data is a useful tool in determining where and when a player might have his name called in fantasy drafts. I’ve taken this data to the next level to help you, the fantasy manager, by comparing the differences in “home” leagues (ESPN) versus high-stake leagues (NFFC). For those who are unaware, high-stakes players are some of the best in the world … and they put up tens of thousands of dollars to prove their skills.
As a result, examining the biggest differences in ADP data between ESPN and NFFC can help the more casual managers find some potential bargains in their own leagues.
Before we get into the research, let me say that the ADP differences at quarterback are especially wide because of a difference of philosophies. Home leaguers like to get signal-callers earlier, while the high-stakes crowd tends to wait on the position. That’s why I haven’t included that position in the names below. Also, I didn’t find any real major differences between the ESPN and NFFC data when it comes to how folks are drafting tight ends.
The biggest separations are at running back and more notably, wide receivers, so those are the two positions I’ll focus on. One thing is clear: the high-stakes community focuses more of their attention on wideouts than the casual fan, especially in the early to middle rounds.
Alright, let’s dive into the numbers and find you some potential draft bargains who are going off the board much higher in expert drafts than they are at ESPN.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP Differential: -45.3
Kirk has a three- to four-round difference between his NFFC and ESPN data. He has been dealing with an injured calf, but it’s not expected to keep him out of the regular-season opener. And, while Kirk wasn’t great last season, his main competition for targets, Calvin Ridley, is no longer on the roster. I think Kirk will lead the Jaguars in targets, making him an absolute steal as the WR36 in ESPN leagues.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP Differential: -43.1
The difference in Brown’s ADP is very notable. The high stakes folks like him as a mid-RB3 or flex starter, while ESPN drafters don’t have him in the top 130 (RB40)! What’s more, the NFFC data favors Brown ahead of Zack Moss. I’m on the other side of that opinion, as I like Moss to be the early-down back in Cincinnati, but there’s been a shift in the high-stakes world as it pertains to this backfield.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP Differential: -37.8
I can understand this huge gap in ADPs, because the casual fan has been expecting Rice to be suspended. However, we’re now in late August and there’s been no word on any league discipline for Rice’s off-field incidents. That’s pushed Rice’s stock up in high stakes leagues, but it’s kept him lingering in the eighth or ninth round in casual formats. Home leaguers should take the discount before it disappears.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
ADP Differential: -35.7
I was surprised to see such a discrepancy in McLaurin’s ADP. He’s the clear alpha wideout in Washington, and he’s got an exciting new quarterback under center in rookie Jayden Daniels. Despite being a lock to lead the team in targets, McLaurin is still not even a top 30 wide receiver on ESPN. Take advantage of that!
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP Differential: -35.4
The second Jaguars wideout on the list, the high-stakes folks are about three to four rounds higher on Thomas Jr. Neither platform has him in the top 100, though, as the rookie comes in at 104.1 on the NFFC and 139.5 on ESPN. This is a direct result of the high-stakes community taking chances on rookies higher than the casual drafter. Regardless, grabbing Thomas Jr. as a WR5 could be a bargain.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP Differential: -29.5
I am a huge fan of McConkey, who I believe will lead the Chargers in targets as a rookie. After all, the team no longer has Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in the offense. Still, the casual fan isn’t grabbing him until the double-digit rounds. That’s crazy, folks! On the flip side, the high-stakes players are taking him within the top 90 overall. If you can land McConkey as a WR3 or less, it’s a major victory.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
ADP Differential: -29.2
High-stakes players and analysts like myself go gaga over rookie wideouts, which is obvious in his NFFC ADP (30.7) in the last two weeks. By comparison, he’s not coming off the board until the fifth or sixth round on ESPN. If you can get Nabers as a WR3 or flex starter, consider yourself a major winner in the draft.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
ADP Differential: -28.6
I love Reed in fantasy this season, and so does the high-stakes community. The Packers wideout is coming off the board in the top 70 based on NFFC data, but he’s barely in the top 100 (ADP: 98.0) in casual leagues. That means that the home leaguer can grab him as a WR4 in drafts. Take full advantage of this, folks!
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
ADP Differential: -27.6
Honestly, I can’t explain the wide difference in the ADPs for Waddle. In high-stakes leagues, he’s coming off the board at the start of Round 3. That’s right about where he should be drafted. But on ESPN, he’s not coming off the board until the late fourth or early fifth round. For those managers focusing on wide receivers in the first five rounds, you can get Waddle as a WR3/flex. That’s a terrific value.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP Differential: -25.3
The second Chiefs wideout on the list, Worthy’s stock is rising in the high-stakes world. Not only has he looked good in the preseason, but the rookie will see more work in the pass attack while Hollywood Brown is out of action. I’d guess the casual leaguers will catch up, but Worthy is at 112.4 on ESPN. That’s a steal.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP Differential: -24.8
Pickens is slated to be the top wide receiver in Pittsburgh, and the high-stakes community seems high on the talented athlete. In fact, he’s being picked in the top 50 as a fourth or fifth round pick. He’s not even a top-70 pick on ESPN, however. While Pickens is no sure thing to bust out, you can’t argue about his potential target share. Opportunity is king in fantasy, and the high stakes crowd knows it.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
ADP Differential: -21.3
The Browns backfield is tough to gauge because we don’t know when Nick Chubb (knee) will return to action. The high-stakes folks clearly think Ford will open as the starter, as he’s being picked almost two full rounds higher on NFFC. Heck, he’s even going ahead of projected starters like Gus Edwards and Ezekiel Elliott! I do like Ford as a late rounder for now, but keep tabs on Chubb’s status.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
ADP Differential: -20.7
Kupp has started to move up among wideouts based on ADP data, as he’s now being picked as high as the start of the third round on NFFC. He’s moved up on ESPN too, but not nearly as much … Kupp is coming off the board at the end of the top 50. He definitely comes with risk, but he’s making a move upward in drafts.
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants
ADP Differential: -19.9
Singletary isn’t a “sexy” name in fantasy leagues, but he has the Giants backfield almost all to himself. He also knows Brian Daboll’s offense from their time together in Buffalo, so it’ll be a smooth transition. The NFFC crowd seems to be betting on Singletary’s volume, taking him almost two rounds higher than what we’re seeing on ESPN. If you can land the veteran as a high RB4, you’ve done very well.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
ADP Differential: -18.1
London is a high-stakes favorite to bust out this year, which is the reason he’s coming off the board in the middle of the second round based on NFFC data. That is a bit too rich for my blood, as I’d rather grab him in Round 3. That’s in the ballpark for his ESPN ADP (35.5). Still, it’s notable that London is a NFFC darling.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
ADP Differential: -17.7
I can’t remember the last time a running back scored 21 touchdowns one season and wasn’t even a top-50 pick the following year. But that’s the case with Mostert, who is the poster boy for expected fantasy regression. He’s still going a couple of rounds higher in the high-stakes world as a low RB2. Based on the ADP data, the casual drafter sees Mostert as more of a mid-level flex starter.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP Differential: -17.0
Williams’ stock has started to rise a bit, as he seems to have retained the top spot in Denver based on preseason usage. Remember, there were some reports that he might not even make the team at one point. A full year-plus removed from knee surgery, Williams is getting back in the good graces of the high-stakes world. And at an ADP of 104.4, he’s a worthwhile add who could become a nice value.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
ADP Differential: -15.7
Mixon, last season’s RB6, will be running with a new crowd in Houston this season. The familiarity with his name and numbers seems to be fueling his third-round ADP in casual leagues, but the high-stakes world is being more cautious. In fact, the veteran is more of a late fourth or early fifth-round pick based on NFFC ADP.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP Differential: -14.3
As I mentioned earlier, the high-stakes community sees Brown as the top fantasy back in Cincinnati, while Moss is the favorite on ESPN. I tend to side with the latter, but Moss could be a steal regardless. He’s not coming off the board until 121.1 in casual leagues, which makes Moss a heck of a potential draft bargain.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
ADP Differential: -14.2
Conner can be a league winner, as he showed at the end of last season, or he can drive managers nuts due to injuries. The high-stakes crowd is taking an earlier chance on the veteran, as he’s being picked more than a round higher than on ESPN. In fact, Conner isn’t even a top-80 pick in home leagues. If that remains the case, he could be a nice draft bargain as a fantasy flex starter in most formats.
Ready for more prep before your draft gets going? Be sure to check out the 2024 Sports Illustrated fantasy football draft kit, which has you covered with everything you need to know to put together a championship contender.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Best Fantasy Football Values Based on ADP Differentials in 2024.
