The way some people are talking, Mizzou men's basketball isn’t playing Utah State but instead the Utah Jazz.
The shooting! The spacing! The passing! The pacing! Utah State’s seeding must be a typo — that’s supposed to be a “1” not a “10,” right?
Look, of course, Utah State is a respectable team. Its coach Ryan Odom is forever famous for an NCAA Tournament upset with UMBC. And the beloved stat site kenpom.com ranks Utah State as America’s 18th-best team (Mizzou is 51st).
But Mizzou will win Thursday’s game.
It might be super close.
Then again, that’s when Mizzou thrives.
The Tigers will win this game, among many reasons, because they were properly battle-tested in the Southeastern Conference. Now, the Aggies play in an impressive conference, too. The Mountain West has four teams in the NCAA Tournament. But Mizzou has proven to be physically and mentally tough in many matchups against teams with NBA prospects. The Tigers have won six games against ranked opponents. Utah State has only played two games against ranked opponents, losing both.
Also, Mizzou has one of the hottest players in the country.
And I’m not talking about Kobe Brown, Mizzou’s best player.
D’Moi Hodge, already an elite thief on “D,” has ascended offensively by shooting as fearlessly as he attempts steals.
In the past five games, Hodge averaged 20.4 points per game.
That includes 26 points against Tennessee and 21 against Alabama.
And in those games, Hodge shot 55.4 percent from the field and 44.3 percent from 3-point range.
So, not only is Mizzou already a talented team, but one of its better players is playing lately like a lot of good teams’ best players.
And, frankly, Brown wasn’t himself in the conference-tournament Alabama loss. He got conked in the head by a knee and provided little offense after (nor did he get to the foul line). Presuming he’s back to being himself, here’s thinking Brown is down for a huge game.
Kobe has got all the qualities to rise up in this one. Utah State doesn’t have much size to throw at him, so he should get into a rebounding rhythm. He’s a senior, so he’ll be playing not only with his veteran mentality but also that extra “this could be my last game if we lose” juice. And he’s played very well in many huge games. Notably, not in all of them — in Mizzou’s first game against a ranked opponent, Brown scored just four points against Kansas. But in the following seven games against ranked teams, prior to playing Alabama in the SEC tourney, Brown averaged 22.0 points.
And check this stat out — he’s the only player in the nation who shoots 55% from the field and 40% from 3. The whole nation!
Much has been made about how both Mizzou and Utah State play similar offensive styles and have similar offensive analytics. This game played in Sacramento might have the feel of Kings-Jazz. But Mizzou should have the edge regarding physicality and experience (a couple of key things). And Utah State is not a deep team. Meanwhile, Mizzou coach Dennis Gates, though his bench has shortened of late, has nine guys he should be comfortable playing (including X-factor Tre Gomllion, who should likely return to action).
As for Gates, this game is a celebration of his acceleration. He sped this program to the NCAA Tournament in his very first year. Even if Mizzou loses, the season was a success. His coaching opponent, though, has the ultimate line of a résumé. Ryan Odom is the only men’s coach to ever defeat a No. 1 seed as a No. 16 seed. Five years ago Thursday (yes, not the best omen), Odom coached the University of Maryland-Baltimore County to a stunning drubbing of Virginia, 74-54. Up to that point, all 135 No. 16 seeds had lost to No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
This win was the ultimate example of the unexpectedness of March. On the right day, any team can win a game.
So, as we talk about all the toughness Mizzou gained from playing in the SEC, it’s not like every SEC team will thus beat teams from weaker conferences. There will be upsets — and, as everyone from Vegas to Jay Bilas thinks, Mizzou could be upset by Odom’s Aggies. But Mizzou has so many things going for it, from its battled-tested season to Hodge and Brown to its depth to the brilliant coaching strategies of Gates (so many steals … and so few turnovers).
Mizzou hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since defeating Clemson on March 19, 2010. Brown was 10 years old at the time. Here’s thinking Mizzou will finally win a tournament game — and with Gates at the helm, the next tournament win after Thursday won’t be 13 years from now.
