Leading off, let’s talk about who’s leading off.
New Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol strikes me as a man who wants to maximize matchups. Who’s not going to slowly let a situation play out. So, even though Marmol hit on the Dylan Carlson decision in the first four games, Carlson’s one-for-Milwaukee makes one think it’s time for Tommy Edman to return to the leadoff spot.
Is that for the whole season? No.
And that’s the point. To keep this lineup fluid all season, to make sure you’re playing the hot hand in the top spot. Carlson literally tallied one hit in the four-game series split. And he didn’t walk — though the Brewers (and the Pirates and Royals) aren’t going to try to pitch around the Cards’ leadoff hitter, while Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado wait in line in the lineup.
And because Carlson was the first hitter, that meant he would finish with the most plate appearances, and sure enough, there he was late in Sunday’s game, up with two outs in the eighth. Bases loaded, Birds down one. Biggest at-bat of the game.
Now, Carlson was suddenly put in an unfair bind. The first pitch to him was called a strike. It was not a strike. So, he was behind in the count, even though his discipline should’ve had him ahead in it. Ultimately, Carlson grounded out to end the inning. The Brewers remained up 6-5. The Brewers, an inning later, would win 6-5.
Carlson finished one for 19 in the four games. In the Cards’ previous four games — the first four of the year — “D.C.” went six for 14. So, in this upcoming series in Miami, why not let Carlson rediscover his swing while batting in the spot somewhere within Nos. 6-9 ... and bump Edman back up to No. 1? Like Carlson, he’s a switch-hitter. And he’s got some experience leading off, considering he did it around 75% of the time last season.
And if Edman starts stinking at leadoff, then change it up again. It’s about being proactive.
Now, I’ll admit this one — I didn’t anticipate this scorching start for the second baseman (.333 batting average and 1.104 OPS). Edman’s spring in Jupiter looked like Carlson’s weekend in Milwaukee. And last season was an interesting one. Edman thrived in two categories — he finished second in the league in doubles and stolen bases. That should earn you the starting job for next year, and it did for Edman.
(Oh, and by the way, he won the Gold Glove … and flashed that thing Sunday to get out the man whose job he took — Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong).
But overall last season, Edman hit just .265 with a .308 on-base percentage. In all of baseball, the Cardinals finished 27th in leadoff hitter OBP.
And Edman had a .695 OPS. The Cards were 20th in leadoff hitter OPS. You know who had good leadoff hitter OPS? Good teams. Five of the top nine teams in that category made the playoffs (including the two World Series participants). And a sixth team of the nine, the Toronto Blue Jays, missed the playoffs but fared well with 91 wins, in part thanks to the .859 OPS from leadoff hitters.
So, it totally made sense that Marmol went with Carlson, not Edman, to first bat first in 2022. And it sure paid off in the first four games. Alas, it affected the outcomes of some of the next four. Here’s thinking Carlson gets hundreds of at-bats at the top spot this year — but probably not at least for a few days.
What’s been most-astounding about Edman this season (again, we’re only eight games in) is his power. He’s hit three homers in his 27 at-bats. Last season, he hit 11 in 641 at-bats. Incidentally, Edman literally led Major League Baseball in 2021 at-bats. Yes, part of that was because he walked so seldom. But consider that six of the nine players behind him were All-Stars … and a seventh was Goldschmidt, who finished with a .879 OPS.
Oh, and as for Goldschmidt — yes, he’s struggling this year. But remember last year? We kept pointing out that his average exit velocity was impressive, and that implied that, eventually, those hard-hit balls would start missing gloves. And sure enough, they did. Well, so far in 2022, Goldschmidt still has an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. That has him in the 75th percentile, so that’s pretty good.
As for Edman, he looks locked in early this season. That bodes well for St. Louis. It’s as if he’s closely monitoring the monster start of Class-AAA second baseman Nolan Gorman. Edman is raking, especially in his small sample size as a righty hitter against lefties (4 for 8). Overall, he’s 10th in all of baseball in OPS.
And for the nascent season, Edman has some flashy fancy stats. Unlike Goldschmidt (or, of course, Arenado), his average exit velocity isn’t very high; ironically, Edman hit the 17th-hardest ball in all of baseball this year (at 112.6 mph). But Edman is flourishing in Statcast categories such as barrel percentage, xSLG and xwOBA, all three in the 90th-or-higher percentiles.
As we know in this town, anyone can have a hot start — where have you gone, Jeremy Hazelbaker? And, as Goldschmidt himself proved last year, a rough April — and May, for that matter — doesn’t always matter come the home stretch of a season.
But the key for Marmol is pressing the right buttons early and often. Because unlike a ballplayer, he can’t afford to have a bad month.
