I don’t like writing about hitting coaches. They either get too much credit or too much blame. They’re easy targets. Too many forget it’s the players, not the hitting coaches, who take the bat up to the plate and swing.
But . . .
After hearing and reading another round of Faith in Jeff Albert rhetoric from the Cardinals, I can’t help but wonder why they aren’t the ones wanting more.
Maybe Albert’s modernized approach to hitting eventually breaks through and the Cardinals look smart for their dedication. But a suggestion that things are headed in the right direction, as Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made in his recent interview with Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold, lacks evidence.
There’s a difference between blaming a hitting coach unfairly and having reasonable expectations for a National-League average offense as the Cardinals’ hitting coach nears the halfway point of his third season with the team. Albert’s results are lacking. Even a long-term approach, which we have been reminded of often since the club hired Albert away from Houston for his Cardinals reunion entering the 2019 season, should be yielding better results by now. Especially now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt share a lineup.
Instead, check-engine lights are flashing for a team that gradually has lost the home-run power that briefly propelled it. Since the start of June the Cardinals have averaged only three runs per game, which is more than a half-run lower than the major league’s second-lowest scoring team this month. Unlike the rotation’s struggles, this cannot be mostly explained away by pointing to injuries.
This season’s good — such as Tyler O’Neill’s success when healthy and Dylan Carlson’s quiet rookie of the year contention — does not outweigh the bad. Matt Carpenter was not saved. Tommy Edman’s leadoff tumble continues. Nolan Arenado’s blistering May has encountered a June stall. While one Paul (Goldschmidt) climbs, another Paul (DeJong) has gone three for 32 with 11 strikeouts since he returned from the injured list.
Harrison Bader still is out, but lineup catalyst he is not. This has been a below-average offense. Again.
Every hitter has cold spells. Every team searches for runs at times. But when “cold” and “searching” are fair descriptions of a hitting coach’s time with a team, those wondering what gives are not overreacting. There is more evidence the team is underreacting.
Here is some:
— Since June began, the Cardinals have averaged only three runs per game. Every other team in baseball has averaged at least 3.56 (Rangers) or more this month. Twenty-two teams have averaged four-plus.
Since June began, the Cardinals have produced a .215 batting average with a .283 on-base percentage and a .325 slugging percentage. Their on-base plus slugging percentage of .609 for the month is the second-lowest OPS in baseball during this time. Barely. The Diamondbacks, losers of 17 straight exiting the weekend, had a June OPS of .606. The Cards also are tied with the Diamondbacks for the fewest June home runs (12), a troubling development for a team that has won nearly 66 percent of the games in which they have homered.
— Now let’s look at the whole season. The Cardinals can be found near baseball’s bottom in batting average (.227, 27th in MLB/13th in NL), on-base percentage (.299, 26th in MLB/14th in NL) and slugging percentage (22nd in MLB/ 10th in NL). The NL average for on-base plus slugging percentage reads .705. The Cardinals are at .677, which is 11th in the 15-team NL.
The Cardinals are trailing the NL average in runs per game, home runs per game, pitches faced per plate appearance, plate appearances per walk and batting average with runners in scoring position.
— The numbers Albert values most have improved. But by how much, and at what cost? The Cardinals’ average exit velocity of 88.6 mph (23rd in MLB) is up less than two ticks from last season’s average of 87.3 mph (27th). The Cardinals have a hard-hit percentage of 38.4 (21st) compared to last season’s 34.8 (26th).
Meanwhile the team’s overall on-base percentage and its batting average with runners in scoring position are threatening to reach low points not witnessed by the organization in decades. Same for the ineptitude against righthanded pitching. The Cardinals’ on-base percentage against righties (.294) is the worst in the NL and on track to be the team’s worst in more than 40 years.
— Let’s zoom out again and look at Albert’s entire body of work with the Cardinals. Between opening day 2019 and Monday’s off day, the Cardinals’ batting average (.239), on-base percentage (.317) and slugging percentage (.398) are in the bottom third of the NL. Only the Pirates and Marlins have a lower OPS than the Cardinals’ .714 during that time frame.
Albert’s offense in 292 regular-season games ranks among the NL’s bottom five in runs per game (4.42) and home runs per game (1.16). The Pirates have more extra-base hits than the Cardinals (805) during the Albert era. No team has fewer doubles.
— There is no postseason performance that lowers the red flags. The Nationals went on to win the World Series after unplugging the Cardinals’ lineup in the 2019 NLCS. The Padres dismissed the Cardinals from last season’s wild-card series despite injuries to several key pitchers and a bullpen approach to the series-deciding game.
Remember, in the three seasons before Albert was hired, a span that included three missed playoffs between 2016 and 2018 and no shortage of complaints about the offense, the Cardinals’ OPS read .752 and ranked fifth best in the NL during that span.
Usually, yes, it’s best to lay off the hitting coach. But when a mountain of evidence grows, it’s hard to ignore — and easy to wonder why the team continues to do so.
